ATL: LARRY - Models

[aspen]

18z GFS is @1 degree S and 5 degrees W compared to 06z this morning. Fortunately no matter how much SW adjustment, it doesn’t appear NE Caribbean is in play at this point.

If a ridge comes to block Larry while it’s that far SW, it won’t be the Caribbean that’ll have to worry.

Seems like every single model run, we’re seeing yet another SW shift. There has to be a point where any further SW is impossible. I also agree that the Caribbean will probably be safe from this — at the most, a very close call like Jose — and Larry won’t end up nearly as far SW as an Irma-like track.

[Category5Kaiju]

Some of the latest GEPS and GEFS ensembles have me stunned to say the least. They actually bring Larry in as a potent cyclone into the Carolinas or Georgia. I'm definitely not writing this storm off at this point as the trends have been somewhat unnerving to me, and I am keeping an eye on any additional westward shifts with myself being in coastal Virginia. I was more than happy to track a powerful fish storm, but as of now there are doubts I have that everything with Larry will be as simple as just turning out to sea harmlessly.

[Blown Away]

Some of the latest GEPS and GEFS ensembles have me stunned to say the least. They actually bring Larry in as a potent cyclone into the Carolinas or Georgia. I'm definitely not writing this storm off at this point as the trends have been somewhat unnerving to me, and I am keeping an eye on any additional westward shifts with myself being in coastal Virginia. I was more than happy to track a powerful fish storm, but as of now there are doubts I have that everything with Larry will be as simple as just turning out to sea harmlessly.

Can you post the graphic?

[Category5Kaiju]

Some of the latest GEPS and GEFS ensembles have me stunned to say the least. They actually bring Larry in as a potent cyclone into the Carolinas or Georgia. I'm definitely not writing this storm off at this point as the trends have been somewhat unnerving to me, and I am keeping an eye on any additional westward shifts with myself being in coastal Virginia. I was more than happy to track a powerful fish storm, but as of now there are doubts I have that everything with Larry will be as simple as just turning out to sea harmlessly.

Can you post the graphic?

I am not personally sure how to show an animated trend on S2K (and I’ll figure it out when I have more time), but you could access the ensembles on Tropical Tidbits; there’s a clear SW trend in many of the guidances, and I really hope that does not continue because eventually land will come into play

[Category5Kaiju]

Some of the latest GEPS and GEFS ensembles have me stunned to say the least. They actually bring Larry in as a potent cyclone into the Carolinas or Georgia. I'm definitely not writing this storm off at this point as the trends have been somewhat unnerving to me, and I am keeping an eye on any additional westward shifts with myself being in coastal Virginia. I was more than happy to track a powerful fish storm, but as of now there are doubts I have that everything with Larry will be as simple as just turning out to sea harmlessly.

Some of the latest GEPS and GEFS ensembles have me stunned to say the least. They actually bring Larry in as a potent cyclone into the Carolinas or Georgia. I'm definitely not writing this storm off at this point as the trends have been somewhat unnerving to me, and I am keeping an eye on any additional westward shifts with myself being in coastal Virginia. I was more than happy to track a powerful fish storm, but as of now there are doubts I have that everything with Larry will be as simple as just turning out to sea harmlessly.

Can you post the graphic?

I am not personally sure how to show an animated trend on S2K (and I’ll figure it out when I have more time), but you could access the ensembles on Tropical Tidbits; there’s a clear SW trend in many of the guidances, and I really hope that does not continue because eventually land will come into play

Also correction: it's the GEPS not the GEFS that notably have some ensembles that hit the SE US Coast, my apologies. The GEFS still show a recurve, but every run seems to be slightly more SW

[Blown Away]

18z HWRF... Significant SW shift at 96 hours...

[AutoPenalti]

Forward speed will be an issue as well. HWRF seems to be showcasing this for the time being.

[Ubuntwo]

Some of the latest GEPS and GEFS ensembles have me stunned to say the least. They actually bring Larry in as a potent cyclone into the Carolinas or Georgia. I'm definitely not writing this storm off at this point as the trends have been somewhat unnerving to me, and I am keeping an eye on any additional westward shifts with myself being in coastal Virginia. I was more than happy to track a powerful fish storm, but as of now there are doubts I have that everything with Larry will be as simple as just turning out to sea harmlessly.

The 18z GEFS shifted west but still no CONUS landfalls. Two members of the 12z GEPS made landfall on the CONUS. Worth keeping an eye on, but nothing to freak out about yet.

[Ubuntwo]

The 18z HWRF depicts an eyewall replacement cycle before Larry starts clearing a large eye and transitioning to annular.

[gatorcane]

Strong recurve signal still:

[Blown Away]

18z HWRF... @1 degree S and 3-4 degrees W of previous runs... Closing in on the 20N/60W mark... Still likely showing a recurve just NE of the Caribbean at 126 hours...

@130 mph large hurricane...

[sma10]

Strong recurve signal still:

https://i.postimg.cc/qBhbW454/storm-12-ens.gif

Yes, there might be a bit of shifting to the SW run-to-run, but so long as there is consistent troughiness in the NE on days 6-10, there is little else for Larry to go

[Blown Away]

Strong recurve signal still:

https://i.postimg.cc/qBhbW454/storm-12-ens.gif

Agree that is most likely outcome, but the consistent large SW shifting in the model runs has been ongoing all day long...

[Hurricaneman]

18z HWRF... @1 degree S and 3-4 degrees W of previous runs... Closing in on the 20N/60W mark... Still likely showing a recurve just NE of the Caribbean at 126 hours...

@130 mph large hurricane...

True it recurves, but the location of the recurve and direction could make the difference and any SW shifts from here could put the NE lesser Antilles in harms way

[Hurricaneman]

Strong recurve signal still:

https://i.postimg.cc/qBhbW454/storm-12-ens.gif

Agree that is most likely outcome, but the consistent large SW shifting in the model runs has been ongoing all day long...

That’s my fear for the NE lesser Antilles

[tomatkins]

Strong recurve signal still:

https://i.postimg.cc/qBhbW454/storm-12-ens.gif

Until right this minute I never really noticed that Bermuda is just a little east of the eastern tip of Maine. I always imagine it being way out in the ocean, and only 20 miles further from block island than from hatteras.

[gatorcane]

Looks like Larry becomes annular on the HWRF:

[aspen]

The 00z model track guidance might warrant yet another SW shift for the NHC forecast track. Every model run makes a completely harmless recurve less and less likely. At the very least, this could be a problem for Bermuda.

[Sciencerocks]

Looks like Larry becomes annular on the HWRF:

https://i.postimg.cc/4NLVb9X5/hwrf-p-sat-IR-12-L-fh6-126.gif

Kind of reminds me of Isabel a little. Isabel tracked west-southwest in the eastern Atlantic and had very much the same model thinking.

[Blown Away]

Looks like Larry becomes annular on the HWRF:

https://i.postimg.cc/4NLVb9X5/hwrf-p-sat-IR-12-L-fh6-126.gif

How cool is that!! Odd to have the HWRF as the Left outlier...