ATL: LARRY - Models

[RevanTheJedi96]

The 00z model track guidance might warrant yet another SW shift for the NHC forecast track. Every model run makes a completely harmless recurve less and less likely. At the very least, this could be a problem for Bermuda.

Yeah I have no clue what to think of Larry. Models keep trending west and stronger. I am not a fan of that setup at all.

[AutoPenalti]

The recurve is still pretty solid there, Bermuda might be in trouble though.

[IcyTundra]

00Z ICON making a beeline towards Bermuda.

[SconnieCane]

The recurve is still pretty solid there, Bermuda might be in trouble though.

I don't know about "in trouble." Bermuda is pretty solidly built against hurricanes. Neither Fay, Gonzalo, Nicole or Humberto did enough to warrant retirement. Last year's Paulette certainly didn't. It would take a real monster to do serious damage there.

[Teban54]

The recurve is still pretty solid there, Bermuda might be in trouble though.

I don't know about "in trouble." Bermuda is pretty solidly built against hurricanes. Neither Fay, Gonzalo, Nicole or Humberto did enough to warrant retirement. Last year's Paulette certainly didn't. It would take a real monster to do serious damage there.

Add Paulette to that list.

Fabian did end up retired, though.

[Ubuntwo]

0z GFS shifts back northeast, the ICON is just a touch south.

[RevanTheJedi96]

GFS shifted back East. Probably a good sign that this westward shift might be coming to an end.

[kevin]

06z ICON, 955 mbar at 120 hours and right in the middle of the NHC cone. Slightly SW of 00z, which was (23.4N, 53.4W) @126 hours. This run is (23.1N, 54.3W) @120 hours. Also interesting to note that ICON has 3 additional (weak) active systems, one in the WCar, one new tropical wave and something in the GOM.

[kevin]

HMON is near MH strength within 21 hours .

[kevin]

Unfortunately this storm wasn't named Mindy, because Larry is going for a Mega eye in 06z HWRF. The major axis has a diameter of 110 miles (180 km), about 3 - 6 times the average eye diameter.

[Kohlecane]

Unfortunately this storm wasn't named Mindy, because Larry is going for a Mega eye in 06z HWRF. The major axis has a diameter of 110 miles (180 km), about 3 - 6 times the average eye diameter.

https://i.imgur.com/S83BfAP.png

Got enough time to play a pick-up game between eyewalls

[Kohlecane]

Looking through the models, that trough through the NE/E between Sep 8-9 seems to be influenced by what ever that low in the W.GOM(unsure if its 91L) is doing, seems that elongates it more SW digging deeper, Maybe it's just me This would be a good thing getting a stronger trough to give no way to continue W. But again I'm an amateur does anyone have any perspective on this?

[pgoss11]

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... con&region
12z ICON not good news for Bermuda

[pgoss11]

12z ICON not good news for Bermuda[/quote]

[Kohlecane]

okay GFS chill out with the near stall and SW shift go back to 06Z

[AutoPenalti]

okay GFS chill out with the near stall and SW shift go back to 06Z

I don't think there's a near stall here.

[weeniepatrol]

[kevin]

12z ICON makes landfall on Bermuda with 950 mbar.

[kevin]

12z GFS still east of Bermuda, but significantly further west than 06z. 06z passed by the island at (33.3N, 57.6W) while 12z passed at (32.8N, 60.8W) so about 220 miles (350 km) further west. One more shift like that could easily send it to Bermuda.

[BobHarlem]

The 12z Canadian has a Bermuda Sept 10 Cat 2 landfall.