ATL: LARRY - Advisories

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Hurricane Larry Advisory Number 20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122021
1100 AM AST Sun Sep 05 2021

...LARRY EXPECTED TO CAUSE DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC SHORES LATER THIS WEEK...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.5N 49.7W
ABOUT 880 MI...1415 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
ABOUT 1285 MI...2070 KM SE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...955 MB...28.20 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Larry was located
near latitude 19.5 North, longitude 49.7 West. Larry is moving
toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). A northwestward motion
with a slight decrease in forward speed is expected during the next
few days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 125 mph (205 km/h) with higher
gusts. Larry is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Little change in strength is forecast during
the next few days, although fluctuations in intensity will be
possible. Larry is expected to remain a major hurricane through the
middle of this week.

Larry is a large hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward
up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force
winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 955 mb (28.20 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Larry are expected to reach the Lesser
Antilles today, and will spread westward to portions of the Greater
Antilles, the Bahamas, and Bermuda on Monday and Tuesday.
Significant swells will likely reach the east coast of the United
States and Atlantic Canada by midweek. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch




Hurricane Larry Discussion Number 20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122021
1100 AM AST Sun Sep 05 2021

Larry continues as a large and intense hurricane this morning, with
a 40 n mi diameter eye surround by cloud tops to near -80 deg C.
There are, however, some breaks in the cold tops over the northern
portion of the circulation. The current intensity is adjusted
slightly to 110 kt, based on a blend of subjective Dvorak estimates
from TAFB and SAB along with objective ADT estimates from UW-CIMSS.
Upper-level outflow remains somewhat restricted over the
southwestern quadrant of the system, indicative of at least slight
vertical shear. This shear is probably being caused by the flow to
the east of an upper-level low to the north of Puerto Rico. The low
is forecast to move northwestward over the next few days, possibly
lessening the shear over Larry.

The hurricane is moving northwestward at a slightly slower speed, or
310/11 kt. Larry is likely to continue its northwestward trek
along the southwestern periphery of a mid-tropospheric anticyclone
during the next 2-3 days, with only a slight reduction in forward
speed. Around 96 hours, the hurricane is forecast to turn toward
the north-northwest and north while rounding the western side of
the ridge. By the end of the forecast period, Larry is expected to
begin its recurvature into the mid-latitude westerlies. The new
official forecast track essentially follows the previous one, and is
also very close to the latest NOAA corrected consensus and Florida
State University Superensemble guidance.

Larry's large eye suggests that no rapid changes in strength are
likely during the short term. Since vertical shear is not expected
to increase and the system will be traversing warm waters, the
hurricane should be able to more or less maintain its intensity
during the next few days. One inhibiting factor is the presence of
relatively dry mid-level air in the environment. The official
intensity forecast is on the high side of the model guidance and
keeps Larry as a major hurricane through 72 hours.


Key Messages:

1. Large swells generated by Larry are expected to reach the Lesser
Antilles today and will spread to portions of the Greater Antilles,
the Bahamas, and Bermuda on Monday and Tuesday. Significant swells
will likely reach the east coast of the United States and Atlantic
Canada by midweek. These swells will likely cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions, and beachgoers and other interests
along these coasts are urged to follow the advice of lifeguards and
local officials this week.

2. Larry is forecast to approach Bermuda during the next several
days, likely as a major hurricane, bringing a risk of strong
winds, heavy rainfall, and coastal flooding to the island by the
middle of this week. While it is too soon to determine the
magnitude of these hazards and potential impacts on Bermuda,
interests there should closely monitor the latest forecast updates
during the next several days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/1500Z 19.5N 49.7W 110 KT 125 MPH
12H 06/0000Z 20.5N 51.1W 110 KT 125 MPH
24H 06/1200Z 21.9N 52.7W 110 KT 125 MPH
36H 07/0000Z 23.0N 54.0W 110 KT 125 MPH
48H 07/1200Z 24.3N 55.4W 105 KT 120 MPH
60H 08/0000Z 25.7N 56.7W 105 KT 120 MPH
72H 08/1200Z 27.3N 58.1W 105 KT 120 MPH
96H 09/1200Z 31.1N 61.1W 95 KT 110 MPH
120H 10/1200Z 37.4N 60.6W 85 KT 100 MPH

$$
Forecaster Pasch

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Hurricane Larry Advisory Number 21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122021
500 PM AST Sun Sep 05 2021

...LARRY REMAINS A LARGE MAJOR HURRICANE...
...EXPECTED TO CAUSE DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC SHORES LATER THIS WEEK...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.5N 50.6W
ABOUT 830 MI...1335 KM ENE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
ABOUT 1195 MI...1925 KM SE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...955 MB...28.20 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Larry was located
near latitude 20.5 North, longitude 50.6 West. Larry is moving
toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). A northwestward motion
with a slight decrease in forward speed is expected during the next
few days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 125 mph (205 km/h) with higher
gusts. Larry is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Little change in strength is forecast during
the next few days, although fluctuations in intensity will be
possible. However, Larry is expected to remain a major hurricane
through the middle of this week.

Larry is a large hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up
to 45 miles (75 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds
extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 955 mb (28.20 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Larry are reaching the Lesser Antilles
and are expected to spread westward to portions of the Greater
Antilles, the Bahamas, and Bermuda on Monday and Tuesday.
Significant swells should reach the east coast of the United States
and Atlantic Canada by midweek. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Latto


WTNT42 KNHC 052054
TCDAT2

Hurricane Larry Discussion Number 21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122021
500 PM AST Sun Sep 05 2021

The overall structure of Larry has changed little today. A large eye
remains surrounded by a cold ring of convection with cloud tops of
-75 to -80 C. The only notable difference between now and several
hours ago has been that some cloud cover has become evident within
the eye. A blend of the latest T- and CI-numbers from TAFB and SAB
suggest that the initial intensity remains 110 kt.

Larry is moving northwestward, or 315/11 kt, around the
southwestern periphery of a subtropical ridge. There has been no
change to the forecast track reasoning, nor has there been any
notable change to the NHC forecast track from the previous advisory,
due to the forecast models remaining in excellent agreement. A
northwestward motion is expected to continue for the next few days
to the southwest of the ridge. In a few days, the hurricane is
forecast to reach the western periphery of this ridge, resulting in
the cyclone beginning gradual recurvature to the north then
northeast into the mid-latitude westerlies.

Other than some minor fluctuations in intensity due to internal
influences, the stable, annular-like structure of Larry should allow
for it to remain a major hurricane for the next couple of days,
despite being surrounded by some mid-level dry air. By day 4, the
cyclone is forecast to move over waters of progressively decreasing
oceanic heat content, which should induce gradual weakening. The
latest NHC intensity forecast is little changed from the previous
one, and is near the corrected consensus HCCA and DSHP, which have
been two of the best performing models for Larry's intensity thus
far.


Key Messages:

1. Large swells generated by Larry are expected to reach the Lesser
Antilles today and will spread to portions of the Greater Antilles,
the Bahamas, and Bermuda on Monday and Tuesday. Significant swells
should reach the east coast of the United States and Atlantic Canada
by midweek. These swells will likely cause life-threatening surf
and rip current conditions, and beachgoers and other interests along
these coasts are urged to follow the advice of lifeguards and local
officials this week.

2. Larry is forecast to approach Bermuda during the next several
days, likely as a major hurricane, bringing a risk of strong winds,
heavy rainfall, and coastal flooding to the island by the middle of
this week. While it is too soon to determine the magnitude of these
hazards and potential impacts on Bermuda, interests there should
closely monitor the latest forecast updates during the next several
days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/2100Z 20.5N 50.6W 110 KT 125 MPH
12H 06/0600Z 21.6N 51.9W 110 KT 125 MPH
24H 06/1800Z 22.7N 53.4W 110 KT 125 MPH
36H 07/0600Z 23.9N 54.8W 105 KT 120 MPH
48H 07/1800Z 25.3N 56.2W 100 KT 115 MPH
60H 08/0600Z 26.8N 57.5W 100 KT 115 MPH
72H 08/1800Z 28.5N 59.1W 100 KT 115 MPH
96H 09/1800Z 32.8N 61.3W 95 KT 110 MPH
120H 10/1800Z 39.8N 58.7W 85 KT 100 MPH

$$
Forecaster Latto

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Hurricane Larry Advisory Number 22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122021
1100 PM AST Sun Sep 05 2021

...LARGE LARRY LUMBERING ACROSS THE OPEN ATLANTIC...
...DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENTS ALONG WESTERN ATLANTIC SHORES
EXPECTED LATER THIS WEEK...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.0N 51.4W
ABOUT 785 MI...1265 KM ENE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
ABOUT 1135 MI...1825 KM SE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...955 MB...28.20 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Larry was located
near latitude 21.0 North, longitude 51.4 West. Larry is moving
toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h) and this motion is
expected to continue with a slight decrease in forward speed over
the next several days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 125 mph (205 km/h) with higher
gusts. Larry is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Little change in strength is forecast during
the next day or so, with very gradual weakening thereafter.

Larry is a large and expanding hurricane. Hurricane-force winds now
extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center and
tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 955 mb (28.20 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Larry are reaching the Lesser Antilles
and are expected to spread westward to portions of the Greater
Antilles, the Bahamas, and Bermuda on Monday and Tuesday.
Significant swells should reach the east coast of the United States
and Atlantic Canada by midweek. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Papin



Hurricane Larry Discussion Number 22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122021
1100 PM AST Sun Sep 05 2021

A series of afternoon and evening passive microwave imagery indicate
that Larry has evolved from an earlier stable eyewall structure to
one with concentric eyewalls. The most recent microwave pass, a 2201
UTC SSMIS overpass, showed that Larry is likely in the latter stages
of this most recent eyewall replacement cycle (ERC), with a new
outer eyewall radius of nearly 50 nautical miles. However,
geostationary satellite imagery still shows quite a bit of inner
eyewall convection and it may take a while longer before this ERC is
complete. A recent ASCAT-A pass at 2339 UTC also indicated that
Larry's inner-core wind field had expanded further, likely related
to this recent ERC. The latest Dvorak intensity estimates from
TAFB/SAB remain unchanged from this afternoon, and the initial
intensity remains 110 kt this advisory. A NOAA P-3 aircraft will be
conducting a research mission into the Larry tomorrow and should
provide some helpful in-situ measurements to verify the hurricane's
intensity.

Larry's motion to the northwest continues to gradually slow down,
with the latest estimated motion at 310/10 kt. The forecast track
reasoning remains the same. Larry should maintain its northwestward
heading for the next 2-3 days as it remains steered around the
southern periphery of a mid-level ridge to the hurricane's
northeast. After 72 hours, Larry will be reaching the western extent
of this ridge while an amplifying mid-latitude trough will be
approaching from the northeastern United States. The combination of
these features should help Larry recurve, first to the north, and
then northeast with accelerating forward motion by the end of the
forecast period. The track guidance continues to be in excellent
agreement, and very few changes were made to the track forecast this
cycle, staying close to the consensus aids HCCA and TVCA.

The intensity forecast with Larry is somewhat tricky. Larry's wind
field continues to grow, following the multiple ERCs that have
occurred over the past few days. At the same time, Larry's forward
motion has gradually been slowing down, with the latest estimate
down to 10 kts. The combination of Larry's widening wind field with
its slower forward motion opens the storm up to possible upwelling
of cooler ocean waters near its inner-core. In fact, a drifting buoy
that Larry moved over in the past 24 hours showed a significant drop
in sea-surface temperatures from 27.5 C to less than 26 C. These
in-situ measurements are helpful, because they are lower than the
SHIPS-derived sea-surface temperature values and more consistent
with the upwelling recently forecast by the HWRF model. Adding to
the forecast complexity is the ongoing ERC which could be ending
over the next 6-12 hours. The latest NHC intensity forecast is
similar to the previous one for the first 24 hours, showing little
change in intensity after ERC completion. Thereafter, while
dynamical conditions near Larry are expected to become more
favorable (lower vertical wind shear), the anticipated upwelling
from Larry's large wind field as the storm moves slowly
northwestward is forecast to result in gradual decay. The latest NHC
intensity forecast is a bit lower than the previous one after
48 hours, following the latest HCCA consensus aid closely. However,
Larry's wind field is also forecast to expand over this time period,
making the cyclone a prolific swell and surf producer.

Key Messages:

1. Large swells generated by Larry are already affecting the Lesser
Antilles and will spread to portions of the Greater Antilles, the
Bahamas, and Bermuda on Monday and Tuesday. Significant swells
should reach the east coast of the United States and Atlantic Canada
by midweek. These swells will likely cause life-threatening surf
and rip current conditions, and beachgoers and other interests along
these coasts are urged to follow the advice of lifeguards and local
officials this week.

2. Larry is forecast to approach Bermuda during the next several
days as a large and powerful hurricane, bringing a risk of strong
winds, heavy rainfall, and coastal flooding to the island by the
middle of this week. While it is too soon to determine the
magnitude of these hazards and potential impacts on Bermuda,
interests there should closely monitor the latest forecast updates
during the next several days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/0300Z 21.0N 51.4W 110 KT 125 MPH
12H 06/1200Z 22.0N 52.6W 110 KT 125 MPH
24H 07/0000Z 23.2N 54.1W 110 KT 125 MPH
36H 07/1200Z 24.6N 55.4W 105 KT 120 MPH
48H 08/0000Z 26.0N 56.7W 100 KT 115 MPH
60H 08/1200Z 27.6N 58.2W 95 KT 110 MPH
72H 09/0000Z 29.4N 59.9W 90 KT 105 MPH
96H 10/0000Z 34.4N 61.6W 85 KT 100 MPH
120H 11/0000Z 42.9N 55.8W 80 KT 90 MPH

$$
Forecaster Papin

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Hurricane Larry Advisory Number 23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122021
500 AM AST Mon Sep 06 2021

...LARGE LARRY STILL A MAJOR HURRICANE...
...DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENTS EXPECTED ALONG WESTERN ATLANTIC
SHORES LATER THIS WEEK...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.5N 52.4W
ABOUT 730 MI...1175 KM ENE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
ABOUT 1065 MI...1715 KM SE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...956 MB...28.23 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Larry was located
near latitude 21.5 North, longitude 52.4 West. Larry is moving
toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this general motion
with a slight decrease in forward speed is expected over the next
couple of days. A slightly faster northwestward motion is forecast
by early Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 120 mph (195 km/h) with higher
gusts. Larry is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are possible
during the next couple of days. Thereafter, some gradual weakening
is forecast.

Larry is a large hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward
up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center, and tropical-storm-force
winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 956 mb (28.23 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Larry are affecting the Lesser Antilles
and are expected to spread westward to portions of the Greater
Antilles, the Bahamas, and Bermuda today through Tuesday.
Significant swells should reach the east coast of the United States
and Atlantic Canada by midweek and continue affecting these shores
through the end of the week. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart



Hurricane Larry Discussion Number 23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122021
500 AM AST Mon Sep 06 2021

Recent microwave data indicate that Larry has likely completed an
eyewall replacement cycle (ERC). The 0530 UTC AMSR2 imagery reveals
that the hurricane now has a large, single eyewall structure with an
eye diameter greater than 50 n mi, in contrast with the concentric
eyewall structure noted yesterday. Larry's large eye appears
somewhat ragged in conventional satellite imagery, as some
convective debris clouds associated with the old eyewall continue to
erode. Earlier scatterometer data confirmed that the 50- and 64-kt
wind radii of Larry have broadened, likely as a result of the ERC.
Based on a blend of the 102-kt Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB
and a 107-kt ADT current intensity estimate, the initial intensity
is set at 105 kt for this advisory. NOAA aircraft is scheduled to
conduct a research mission into Larry later today, which should
provide more information about Larry's structure and intensity.

Larry is moving northwestward, or 305/10 kt. The track forecast for
Larry remains of high confidence. The hurricane is expected to
continue moving northwestward through midweek along the western
periphery of a mid-level subtropical ridge over the central
Atlantic. On Thursday, Larry is forecast to turn northward within
the flow of an upper-level trough that is expected to move off the
coast of the northeastern United States. By Friday, Larry should
accelerate northeastward and recurve into the mid-latitudes, passing
near or offshore Atlantic Canada. The latest track guidance is
tightly clustered once again. Thus, the official NHC track forecast
is virtually unchanged from the previous one and remains near the
consensus aids HCCA and TVCA. Larry is forecast to pass east of
Bermuda and make its closest approach to the island on Thursday.
Given Larry's large size, some impacts could be felt even if the
center remains well east of the island as forecast.

The intensity forecast remains more complex. Now that the ERC is
likely completed, some strengthening cannot be ruled out in the
near-term if the large, consolidated eyewall is able to contract.
However, the SHIPS guidance suggests some weak to moderate westerly
shear is still present, and Larry's broad wind field could result in
some upwelling of cooler waters that may inhibit intensification.
Ultimately, these mixed signals suggest that some intensity
fluctuations could occur over the next 24-36 h, and so the NHC
intensity forecast shows little net change during this time.
Thereafter, only gradual weakening is shown as the large hurricane
will remain in a reasonably favorable environment of weak to
moderate shear and warm SSTs through the 72-96 h period. By day 5,
the cyclone will likely be in the process of extratropical
transition, still as a powerful cyclone. Overall, the NHC intensity
forecast lies on the higher end of the guidance, between the
stronger statistical-dynamical models DSHP/LGEM and the weaker
multi-model consensus aids IVCN/HCCA.


Key Messages:

1. Large swells generated by Larry are affecting the Lesser Antilles
and will spread to portions of the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas,
and Bermuda today through Tuesday. Significant swells should reach
the east coast of the United States and Atlantic Canada by midweek
and continue affecting these shores through the end of the week.
These swells will likely cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions, and beachgoers and other interests along these coasts
are urged to follow the guidance of lifeguards and local officials
this week.

2. Larry is forecast to approach Bermuda during the next few days as
a large and powerful hurricane, bringing a risk of strong winds,
heavy rainfall, and coastal flooding to the island by the middle of
this week. While it is too soon to determine the magnitude of these
hazards and potential impacts on Bermuda, interests there should
closely monitor the latest forecast updates during the next several
days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/0900Z 21.5N 52.4W 105 KT 120 MPH
12H 06/1800Z 22.6N 53.6W 110 KT 125 MPH
24H 07/0600Z 23.9N 54.9W 110 KT 125 MPH
36H 07/1800Z 25.3N 56.2W 105 KT 120 MPH
48H 08/0600Z 26.8N 57.5W 100 KT 115 MPH
60H 08/1800Z 28.5N 59.0W 100 KT 115 MPH
72H 09/0600Z 30.6N 60.6W 95 KT 110 MPH
96H 10/0600Z 36.7N 61.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
120H 11/0600Z 45.5N 52.0W 75 KT 85 MPH

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Hurricane Larry Advisory Number 24
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122021
1100 AM AST Mon Sep 06 2021

...POWERFUL LARRY EXPECTED TO CAUSE DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENTS
ALONG WESTERN ATLANTIC SHORES LATER THIS WEEK...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.1N 52.9W
ABOUT 715 MI...1150 KM ENE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
ABOUT 1015 MI...1630 KM SE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...956 MB...28.23 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Larry was located
near latitude 22.1 North, longitude 52.9 West. Larry is moving
toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this general motion
is expected to continue through Wednesday, followed by a turn
toward the north-northwest and north on Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 120 mph (195 km/h) with higher
gusts. Larry is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are possible
during the next couple of days. Thereafter, some gradual weakening
is forecast.

Larry is a large hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward
up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center, and tropical-storm-force
winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 956 mb (28.23 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Larry are affecting the Lesser Antilles
and are expected to spread westward to portions of the Greater
Antilles, the Bahamas, and Bermuda today through Tuesday.
Significant swells should reach the east coast of the United States
and Atlantic Canada by midweek and continue affecting these shores
through the end of the week. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch



Hurricane Larry Discussion Number 24
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122021
1100 AM AST Mon Sep 06 2021

Larry currently has an annular structure, with a 60 n-mi diameter
eye and a relatively thick eyewall. High-resolution visible imagery
shows several meso-vortices rotating within the eye, which is
typically observed in strong hurricanes. The upper-level outflow
has become better defined over the western portion of the
circulation, indicative of decreased shear in comparison to
yesterday. The advisory intensity is kept at 105 kt, in reasonable
agreement with the latest Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB.

Larry has slowed its forward speed a bit, and is now moving
northwestward near 9 kt. There are no important changes in the
track forecast or reasoning from the previous advisory. During the
next few days, the hurricane is expected to move around the western
periphery of a subtropical anticyclone over the central Atlantic,
turning northward and northeastward. At this time, Larry is
forecast to pass east of Bermuda and make its closest approach to
the island on Thursday. Given Larry's large size, some impacts
could be felt even if the center remains well east of the island as
forecast. In 3-5 days, the cyclone should accelerate northeastward
ahead of a large mid-tropospheric trough moving through the
northeastern United States. The official track forecast follows the
latest dynamical model consensus, and remains close to the previous
one. Since the model guidance is in good agreement, this continues
to be a high-confidence track forecast.

Vertical shear is expected to remain low and the system will
continue to traverse warm SSTs for the next few days. However, the
presence of dry mid-level air and the broad nature of the
hurricane's inner core will probably mitigate against significant
restrengthening. Some fluctuations in intensity are possible for
the next 48 hours or so. In 3-5 days, cooler waters and increasing
shear should cause gradual weakening. Around the end of the
forecast period, the global models show the system beginning to
merge with a frontal zone near Newfoundland. The official forecast
is on the high side of the model guidance suite and close to the
latest Decay-SHIPS prediction.

Key Messages:

1. Large swells generated by Larry are affecting the Lesser Antilles
and will spread to portions of the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas,
and Bermuda today through Tuesday. Significant swells should reach
the east coast of the United States and Atlantic Canada by midweek
and continue affecting these shores through the end of the week.
These swells will likely cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions, and beachgoers and other interests along these coasts
are urged to follow the guidance of lifeguards and local officials
this week.

2. Larry is forecast to approach Bermuda during the next few days as
a large and powerful hurricane, bringing a risk of strong winds,
heavy rainfall, and coastal flooding to the island by the middle of
this week. While it is too soon to determine the magnitude of these
hazards and potential impacts on Bermuda, interests there should
closely monitor the latest forecast updates during the next several
days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/1500Z 22.1N 52.9W 105 KT 120 MPH
12H 07/0000Z 23.1N 54.0W 110 KT 125 MPH
24H 07/1200Z 24.5N 55.3W 110 KT 125 MPH
36H 08/0000Z 25.9N 56.6W 105 KT 120 MPH
48H 08/1200Z 27.5N 58.0W 100 KT 115 MPH
60H 09/0000Z 29.3N 59.6W 100 KT 115 MPH
72H 09/1200Z 31.6N 61.2W 95 KT 110 MPH
96H 10/1200Z 38.6N 60.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
120H 11/1200Z 49.0N 49.0W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Pasch

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Hurricane Larry Advisory Number 25
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122021
500 PM AST Mon Sep 06 2021

...NOAA AIRCRAFT FINDS LARRY SLIGHTLY STRONGER...
...EXPECTED TO CAUSE DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENTS
ALONG WESTERN ATLANTIC SHORES LATER THIS WEEK...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.5N 53.9W
ABOUT 665 MI...1070 KM ENE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
ABOUT 950 MI...1530 KM SE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...956 MB...28.23 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Larry was located
near latitude 22.5 North, longitude 53.9 West. Larry is moving
toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this general motion
is expected to continue through Wednesday, followed by a turn
toward the north-northwest and north on Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 125 mph (205 km/h) with higher
gusts. Larry is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are possible
during the next couple of days. Thereafter, some gradual weakening
is forecast.

Larry remains a large hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend
outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center and
tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 956 mb (28.23 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Larry will continue to affect the Lesser
Antilles, portions of the Greater Antilles, and the Bahamas through
Tuesday, and Bermuda through late this week. Significant swells
should reach the east coast of the United States and Atlantic Canada
by midweek and continue affecting these shores through the end of
the week. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf
and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Latto



Hurricane Larry Discussion Number 25
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122021
500 PM AST Mon Sep 06 2021

NOAA aircraft have been investigating Larry for much of this
afternoon, providing valuable information regarding the structure
and intensity of the hurricane. Peak 700-mb flight-level winds of
110 kt with SFMR winds of 101 kt were measured in the northwestern
eyewall a couple of hours ago, supporting an intensity of about 100
kt in that portion of the cyclone. During that pass through the
hurricane, the aircraft tail Doppler radar measured winds of 121 kt
at a height of 3 km in the northeastern eyewall, which equate to
about 109 kt at the surface. Therefore, the initial intensity has
been adjusted up to 110 kt for this advisory. A pair of dropsondes
into the eye of Larry measured a minimum central pressure of 956 mb.
Both the aircraft and earlier ASCAT data indicated that
hurricane-force winds extend up to 60 n mi from the center, while
tropical-storm-force winds extend up to 160 n mi from the center.

Larry is maintaining its stable, annular structure with a very
large, mostly clear eye. The environment surrounding Larry is not
forecast to change much over the next couple of days, so only some
minor fluctuations in intensity are anticipated during that time. By
72 hours, decreasing sea-surface temperatures and an increase in
vertical wind shear should cause the hurricane to begin weakening.
The only change to the NHC intensity forecast was a 5-kt increase
through the first few days to accommodate the adjustment required to
the initial intensity. By the end of the forecast period, Larry is
expected to transition to a powerful extratropical cyclone. The
latest NHC forecast remains on the high end of the guidance, closest
to the Decay-SHIPS model.

The hurricane continues to move northwest at 9 kt to the southwest
of a subtropical ridge. The forecast track confidence has remained
high over the past few days. Larry should continue its northwestward
motion through Wednesday, and then reach the western periphery of
the ridge in a few days, causing the cyclone to begin a turn to the
north, then northeast late this week. This track would bring Larry
on its closest approach to Bermuda on Thursday. After turning
northeast, the cyclone should accelerate into the mid-latitude
westerlies. The latest NHC forecast is little changed from the
previous one, and remains near the middle of tightly clustered track
guidance.


Key Messages:

1. Large swells generated by Larry are affecting the Lesser Antilles
and will spread to portions of the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas,
and Bermuda today through Tuesday. Significant swells should reach
the east coast of the United States and Atlantic Canada by midweek
and continue affecting these shores through the end of the week.
These swells will likely cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions, and beachgoers and other interests along these coasts
are urged to follow the guidance of lifeguards and local officials
this week.

2. Larry is forecast to approach Bermuda during the next few days as
a large and powerful hurricane, bringing a risk of strong winds,
heavy rainfall, and coastal flooding to the island by the middle of
this week. While it is too soon to determine the magnitude of these
hazards and potential impacts on Bermuda, interests there should
closely monitor the latest forecast updates during the next several
days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/2100Z 22.5N 53.9W 110 KT 125 MPH
12H 07/0600Z 23.4N 55.0W 110 KT 125 MPH
24H 07/1800Z 24.9N 56.3W 105 KT 120 MPH
36H 08/0600Z 26.5N 57.6W 105 KT 120 MPH
48H 08/1800Z 28.3N 59.1W 105 KT 120 MPH
60H 09/0600Z 30.4N 60.7W 105 KT 120 MPH
72H 09/1800Z 33.1N 61.7W 100 KT 115 MPH
96H 10/1800Z 41.2N 57.9W 90 KT 105 MPH
120H 11/1800Z 51.7N 46.4W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Latto

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Hurricane Larry Advisory Number 26
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122021
1100 PM AST Mon Sep 06 2021

...LARRY REMAINS A LARGE FORMIDABLE HURRICANE...
...EXPECTED TO CAUSE DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENTS
ALONG WESTERN ATLANTIC SHORES LATER THIS WEEK...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.1N 54.4W
ABOUT 900 MI...1445 KM SE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...956 MB...28.23 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress of Larry. A
tropical storm watch could be required for the island tomorrow.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of the eye of Hurricane Larry
was located near latitude 23.1 North, longitude 54.4 West. Larry is
moving toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h) and and this
general motion is expected to continue through Wednesday, followed
by a turn toward the north-northwest and north on Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 125 mph (205 km/h) with higher
gusts. Larry is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Very gradual weakening is forecast over the
next several days.

Larry remains a large hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend
outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center and
tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 956 mb (28.23 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Larry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC.


SURF: Swells generated by Larry will continue to affect the Lesser
Antilles, portions of the Greater Antilles, and the Bahamas tonight
and tomorrow, and Bermuda through the end of the week. Significant
swells should reach the east coast of the United States and Atlantic
Canada by midweek and continue affecting these shores through the
end of the week. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Papin




Hurricane Larry Discussion Number 26
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122021
1100 PM AST Mon Sep 06 2021

Larry has changed little in geostationary satellite imagery since
the NOAA P-3 aircraft left the storm after 2130 UTC. Data from the
mission showed that the hurricane possessed a very large wind field,
and there were occasional hints in the flight-level wind data of an
outer wind maxima trying to develop. The most recent passive
microwave imagery from a 2148 UTC SSMIS pass showed some evidence of
secondary bands forming away from the primary eyewall, though the
inner eye remains large and distinct. Whether or not this will be
the start of another eyewall replacement cycle (ERC) remains to be
seen. For now, both the subjective Dvorak estimates from SAB and
TAFB remain unchanged from earlier today, so Larry's intensity has
been maintained at 110 kt for this advisory.

The hurricane continues to move to the northwest at 325/9 kt, guided
along the southwestern periphery of a prominent subtropical ridge.
Larry will reach the westward extent of this ridge in 60-72 hours as
a large deep-layer trough approaches from the northeastern United
States. The latest guidance now shows this trough capturing Larry
towards the end of the forecast period, resulting in an abrupt
acceleration to the northeast as the hurricane is steered by the
strong westerly flow ahead of the mid-latitude trough. The track
guidance continues to be in great agreement with Larry's forecast
track, and only a few minor adjustments were needed to the most
recent forecast, staying near the middle of the track guidance
envelope. This latest forecast continues to show Larry passing to
the east of Bermuda on Thursday. However, given Larry's large size,
some impacts could still be felt even if the center passes well
east, and a tropical storm watch could be needed for the island as
soon as tomorrow morning.

The intensity forecast for Larry over the next few days is likely to
be controlled by changes to its inner-core structure. If another ERC
begins soon, this could result in a short-term drop off in maximum
sustained winds as the hurricane's wind field expands. As mentioned
last night, the broadening wind field, in combination with Larry's
slow motion currently at 9 kt, could also result in more ocean
upwelling closer to Larry's inner core. While the latest SHIPS
guidance depicts warm sea-surface temperatures along the track of
Larry over the next 2-3 days, the oceanic heat content in this part
of the Atlantic basin is not very high. This might explain why the
atmosphere-ocean coupled models (COAMPS-TC, HWRF, HAFS-B) show more
significant weakening with a gradually decaying inner-core over
cooler upwelled waters. The latest NHC intensity forecast is lower
than the previous one, giving a bit more weight to the dynamically
coupled hurricane models versus the statistical-dynamical guidance.
However, even this latest forecast is higher than the reliable HFIP
Corrected Consensus Approach (HCCA). Regardless of these intensity
details, Larry is expected to remain a large and powerful
hurricane over the next few days.

Key Messages:

1. Large swells generated by Larry are affecting the Lesser Antilles
and will spread to portions of the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas,
and Bermuda tonight and tomorrow. Significant swells should reach
the east coast of the United States and Atlantic Canada by midweek
and continue affecting these shores through the end of the week.
These swells will likely cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions, and beachgoers and other interests along these coasts
are urged to follow the guidance of lifeguards and local officials
this week.

2. Larry is forecast to approach Bermuda during the next few days as
a large and powerful hurricane, bringing a risk of strong winds,
heavy rainfall, and coastal flooding to the island by the middle of
this week. Interests in Bermuda should closely monitor the latest
forecast updates during the next few days, and tropical storm
watches could be needed for the island as soon as tomorrow.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/0300Z 23.1N 54.4W 110 KT 125 MPH
12H 07/1200Z 24.1N 55.5W 105 KT 120 MPH
24H 08/0000Z 25.6N 56.8W 100 KT 115 MPH
36H 08/1200Z 27.3N 58.2W 95 KT 110 MPH
48H 09/0000Z 29.2N 59.9W 95 KT 110 MPH
60H 09/1200Z 31.6N 61.3W 90 KT 105 MPH
72H 10/0000Z 34.6N 61.8W 90 KT 105 MPH
96H 11/0000Z 44.0N 55.7W 80 KT 90 MPH
120H 12/0000Z 55.5N 43.4W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Papin

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Hurricane Larry Advisory Number 27
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122021
500 AM AST Tue Sep 07 2021

...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS TO INVESTIGATE LARRY THIS MORNING...
...LARRY EXPECTED TO CAUSE DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENTS ALONG
WESTERN ATLANTIC SHORES LATER THIS WEEK...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.8N 55.1W
ABOUT 830 MI...1340 KM SE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...958 MB...28.29 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress of Larry. A
tropical storm watch could be required for the island today.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Larry was located
near latitude 23.8 North, longitude 55.1 West. Larry is moving
toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this general motion
is expected to continue through Wednesday. A turn toward the
north-northwest and north with an increase in forward speed is
forecast on Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 120 mph (195 km/h) with higher
gusts. Larry is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Some gradual weakening is forecast during the
next several days.

Larry is a large hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward
up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center, and tropical-storm-force
winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 958 mb (28.29 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Larry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC.

SURF: Swells generated by Larry will continue to affect the Lesser
Antilles, portions of the Greater Antilles, and the Bahamas through
midweek, and impact Bermuda through the end of the week.
Significant swells should reach the east coast of the United States
and Atlantic Canada by midweek and continue affecting these shores
through the end of the week. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart




Hurricane Larry Discussion Number 27
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122021
500 AM AST Tue Sep 07 2021

Larry has maintained a very warm, pronounced eye with a diameter of
around 45 to 50 n mi overnight. However, recent infrared satellite
imagery and earlier microwave data show some weaknesses in the
western eyewall of the hurricane, potentially signaling the
entrainment of some drier air into its inner core. This could be the
result of some moderate westerly shear impinging on the system. The
initial intensity is lowered to 105 kt for this advisory, based on a
0520 UTC SATCON estimate of 103 kt and T5.5/102 kt current intensity
Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB. An Air Force Reserve hurricane
hunter reconnaissance flight is scheduled to investigate Larry later
this morning, which should provide more insight into the hurricane's
structure and intensity.

Larry is moving toward the northwest at 315/9 kt, as the hurricane
is being steered around a subtropical ridge over the central
Atlantic. This general motion is expected to continue for the next
48 h or so. By Thursday, the hurricane is forecast to turn northward
within the flow between the ridge and an approaching deep-layer
trough that will be crossing the northeastern United States. As the
trough moves over the western Atlantic, Larry should accelerate
northeastward deeper into the mid-latitudes on Friday and Saturday,
passing near or over portions of Atlantic Canada. The latest NHC
track forecast lies near the HCCA and TVCA consensus aids, and no
significant adjustments were made from the previous forecast. Larry
is expected to pass east of Bermuda on Thursday as a large
hurricane. Given the expansive size of its wind field, a Tropical
Storm Watch could be required for the island later today.

Although the warm sea-surface temperatures and diminishing vertical
wind shear along Larry's forecast track appear favorable during the
next couple of days, it may not be able to take advantage of these
conditions due to its large size, as well as the potential for
another eyewall replacement cycle. As previously noted, Larry's
broad wind field and moderate forward speed could also result in
some upwelling of cooler waters near its inner core. There remains a
split in the intensity guidance, with the statistical-dynamical
guidance notably higher than the coupled atmosphere-ocean models.
The official NHC intensity forecast shows a gradual weakening of
Larry during the next several days. Nonetheless, Larry will remain a
forceful hurricane that continues to produce significant swell with
far-reaching impacts through the week. After 72 h, Larry should
begin its extratropical transition, and the official forecast shows
Larry becoming a hurricane-force extratropical cyclone by 96 h.


Key Messages:

1. Large swells generated by Larry will continue to affect the
Lesser Antilles, portions of the Greater Antilles, and the Bahamas
through midweek. Significant swells should reach the east coast of
the United States and Atlantic Canada by midweek and continue
affecting these shores through the end of the week. These swells
will likely cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions,
and beachgoers and other interests along these coasts are urged to
follow the guidance of lifeguards and local officials this week.

2. Larry is forecast to approach Bermuda during the next couple of
days as a large and powerful hurricane, bringing a risk of strong
winds, heavy rainfall, and coastal flooding to the island by
Thursday. Tropical storm watches could be needed for the island
later today, and interests in Bermuda should closely monitor the
latest forecast updates.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/0900Z 23.8N 55.1W 105 KT 120 MPH
12H 07/1800Z 24.9N 56.0W 100 KT 115 MPH
24H 08/0600Z 26.5N 57.4W 95 KT 110 MPH
36H 08/1800Z 28.4N 59.1W 95 KT 110 MPH
48H 09/0600Z 30.6N 60.8W 95 KT 110 MPH
60H 09/1800Z 33.3N 61.8W 90 KT 105 MPH
72H 10/0600Z 37.1N 61.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 11/0600Z 47.7N 52.4W 75 KT 85 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 12/0600Z 57.0N 43.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Hurricane Larry Advisory Number 28
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122021
1100 AM AST Tue Sep 07 2021

...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR BERMUDA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.4N 55.6W
ABOUT 780 MI...1255 KM SE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...967 MB...28.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Bermuda Weather Service has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for
Bermuda.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Larry was located
near latitude 24.4 North, longitude 55.6 West. Larry is moving
toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this general motion
is expected to continue through Wednesday. A turn toward the
north-northwest and north with an increase in forward speed is
forecast on Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of Larry
should pass east of Bermuda on Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next several
days.

Larry is a large hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward
up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force
winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km).

The minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force Hurricane
Hunter observations is 967 mb (28.56 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Larry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible on Bermuda beginning
late Wednesday or early Thursday.

SURF: Swells generated by Larry will continue to affect the Lesser
Antilles, portions of the Greater Antilles, and the Bahamas through
midweek, and impact Bermuda through the end of the week.
Significant swells should reach the east coast of the United States
and Atlantic Canada by midweek and continue affecting these shores
through the end of the week. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch


Hurricane Larry Discussion Number 28
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122021
1100 AM AST Tue Sep 07 2021

An Air Force Reserve Unit Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigated
Larry a little while ago and found that the hurricane has weakened
somewhat. The central pressure has risen to 967 mb, and the eyewall
is becoming less well defined. Satellite imagery shows that the eye
is still evident but the deep convection has has decreased in
coverage and intensity. Using a blend of flight-level and
SFMR-observed surface winds from the aircraft gives a current
intensity estimate of 100 kt, although this may be generous.

The hurricane continues to move northwestward, or 315/8 kt. Larry
is forecast to move around the western periphery of a subtropical
anticyclone during the next couple of days. By 72 hours, the
system should begin to accelerate northeastward on the eastern side
of a mid-tropospheric trough moving through the northeastern United
States. Thereafter, Larry should be well-embedded in the
higher-latitude southwesterly flow, pass near Newfoundland and move
into the far North Atlantic as an extratropical cyclone. The
official track forecast is essentially the same as the previous one
and in very close agreement with the latest NOAA corrected
consensus and Florida State University (FSU) Superensemble tracks.

Larry is in a low-shear environment with fairly well-defined
upper-level outflow. However dry mid-level air and possible
upwelling of cooler waters beneath the slow-moving circulation
appear to be at least partially responsible for weakening. Since
the environment does not appear to be very hostile for the next
couple of days, only slow weakening is anticipated. The official
intensity forecast for the next 48-72 hours lies below the
statistical dynamical Decay-SHIPS guidance and above the coupled-
HWRF dynamical model prediction. By 96 hours, the FSU cyclone
phase analysis indicates that Larry will have undergone an
extratropical transition, and this is also shown in the official
forecast.

Larry is expected to pass east of Bermuda on Thursday as a large
hurricane. Given the expansive size of Larry's wind field and
forecast uncertainties, a Tropical Storm Watch has been issued
for the island.

Key Messages:

1. Large swells generated by Larry will continue to affect the
Lesser Antilles, portions of the Greater Antilles, and the Bahamas
through midweek. Significant swells should reach the east coast of
the United States and Atlantic Canada by midweek and continue
affecting these shores through the end of the week. These swells
will likely cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions,
and beachgoers and other interests along these coasts are urged to
follow the guidance of lifeguards and local officials this week.

2. The center of Larry is forecast to pass east of Bermuda on
Thursday, but given Larry's large size, tropical storm conditions
are possible there Thursday, along with a risk of heavy rainfall
and coastal flooding. A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for
Bermuda and interests there should closely monitor the latest
forecast updates.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/1500Z 24.4N 55.6W 100 KT 115 MPH
12H 08/0000Z 25.6N 56.6W 95 KT 110 MPH
24H 08/1200Z 27.3N 58.1W 90 KT 105 MPH
36H 09/0000Z 29.3N 59.9W 90 KT 105 MPH
48H 09/1200Z 31.8N 61.3W 90 KT 105 MPH
60H 10/0000Z 34.9N 61.8W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 10/1200Z 39.0N 60.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 11/1200Z 50.0N 50.0W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 12/1200Z 58.0N 42.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Pasch

[cycloneye]

WTNT32 KNHC 071748
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Larry Intermediate Advisory Number 28A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122021
200 PM AST Tue Sep 07 2021

...LARGE LARRY EXPECTED TO CAUSE DANGEROUS SWELLS OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC COAST THIS WEEK...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.8N 55.8W
ABOUT 750 MI...1210 KM SE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...967 MB...28.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Larry was located
near latitude 24.8 North, longitude 55.8 West. Larry is moving
toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this general motion
is expected to continue through Wednesday. A turn toward the
north-northwest and north with an increase in forward speed is
forecast on Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of Larry
should pass east of Bermuda on Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next several days.

Larry is a large hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward
up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force
winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 967 mb (28.56 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Larry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible on Bermuda beginning
late Wednesday or early Thursday.

SURF: Swells generated by Larry will continue to affect the Lesser
Antilles, portions of the Greater Antilles, and the Bahamas through
midweek, and impact Bermuda through the end of the week. Significant
swells should reach the east coast of the United States and Atlantic
Canada by midweek and continue affecting these shores through the
end of the week. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Hurricane Larry Advisory Number 29
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122021
500 PM AST Tue Sep 07 2021

...LARGE LARRY STILL A MAJOR HURRICANE...
...LIKELY TO PRODUCE DANGEROUS SWELLS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
COAST THIS WEEK...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.1N 56.3W
ABOUT 715 MI...1150 KM SE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...965 MB...28.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Larry was located
near latitude 25.1 North, longitude 56.3 West. Larry is moving
toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this general motion
is expected to continue through Wednesday. A turn toward the
north-northwest and north with an increase in forward speed is
forecast on Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of Larry
should pass east of Bermuda on Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher
gusts. Larry is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Slow weakening is forecast during the
next several days.

Larry is a large hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward
up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force
winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km).

The minimum central pressure reported by a NOAA Hurricane Hunter
aircraft is 965 mb (28.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Larry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible on Bermuda beginning
late Wednesday or early Thursday.

SURF: Swells generated by Larry will continue to affect the Lesser
Antilles, portions of the Greater Antilles, and the Bahamas through
midweek, and impact Bermuda through the end of the week. Significant
swells should reach the east coast of the United States and Atlantic
Canada by midweek and continue affecting these shores through the
end of the week. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch


Hurricane Larry Discussion Number 29
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122021
500 PM AST Tue Sep 07 2021

After becoming rather ragged-looking in earlier satellite images,
Larry's eye has become a little better defined recently, and the
surrounding deep convection is more or less maintaining its
strength. Observations from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft show
that the central pressure has fallen slightly, to 965 mb. Peak
flight-level winds from the aircraft were 110 kt so the advisory
intensity is kept at 100 kt. This is also consistent with a Dvorak
Current Intensity number from TAFB.

Larry continues its northwestward motion at about 320/8 kt. The
hurricane should move around the western side of a deep-layer
subtropical anticyclone during the next 48-60 hours. After passing
Bermuda, the system is likely to accelerate northeastward while
moving into the mid-latitude westerlies ahead of a trough moving
from the northeastern United States to Atlantic Canada, and move
into the far north Atlantic by day 5. The official track forecast
stays close to the previous NHC prediction, and remains in good
agreement the various model consensus solutions.

The hurricane continues to exhibit well-defined upper-level outflow,
indicative of weak vertical shear. Over the next couple of days,
Larry will be traversing waters of gradually decreasing oceanic heat
content. This, combined with some dry mid-level air in the
environment, should lead to a gradual decrease in intensity through
48-60 hours. Later in the forecast period, colder waters and strong
shear should cause more rapid weakening. By day 4, the global
models show Larry merging with a frontal zone. Therefore, the NHC
forecast calls for extratropical transition by that time. The
official intensity forecast is generally below the
statistical-dynamical guidance and above the coupled dynamical
hurricane models through 72 hours, but in good agreement with the
model consensus aids.


Key Messages:

1. Large swells generated by Larry will continue to affect the
Lesser Antilles, portions of the Greater Antilles, and the Bahamas
through midweek. Significant swells should reach the east coast of
the United States and Atlantic Canada by midweek and continue
affecting these shores through the end of the week. These swells
will likely cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions,
and beachgoers and other interests along these coasts are urged to
follow the guidance of lifeguards and local officials this week.

2. The center of Larry is forecast to pass east of Bermuda on
Thursday, but given Larry's large size, tropical storm conditions
are possible there Thursday, along with a risk of heavy rainfall
and coastal flooding. A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for
Bermuda and interests there should closely monitor the latest
forecast updates.

3. Larry is forecast to move near or over portions of southeastern
Newfoundland late Friday and Friday night as it transitions to a
hurricane-force post-tropical cyclone. There is a risk of impacts
from high winds, rainfall, and storm surge in portions of
Newfoundland, and interests there should monitor the progress of
Larry and updates to the forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/2100Z 25.1N 56.3W 100 KT 115 MPH
12H 08/0600Z 26.5N 57.4W 95 KT 110 MPH
24H 08/1800Z 28.3N 58.8W 95 KT 110 MPH
36H 09/0600Z 30.5N 60.5W 90 KT 105 MPH
48H 09/1800Z 33.3N 61.7W 90 KT 105 MPH
60H 10/0600Z 36.8N 61.2W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 10/1800Z 41.7N 58.2W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 11/1800Z 53.0N 48.0W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 12/1800Z 60.0N 38.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Pasch

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Hurricane Larry Intermediate Advisory Number 29A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122021
800 PM AST Tue Sep 07 2021

...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FINDS LARGE LARRY A LITTLE BETTER
ORGANIZED...
...LIKELY TO PRODUCE DANGEROUS SWELLS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
COAST THIS WEEK...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.4N 56.5W
ABOUT 690 MI...1115 KM SE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...965 MB...28.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the center of the large eye of Hurricane
Larry was located by an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft
near latitude 25.4 North, longitude 56.5 West. Larry is moving
toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this general motion
is expected to continue through Wednesday. A turn toward the
north-northwest and north with an increase in forward speed is
forecast on Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of Larry
should pass east of Bermuda on Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher
gusts. Larry is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Slow weakening is forecast during the next
several days.

Larry is a large hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward
up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force
winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 965 mb (28.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Larry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible on Bermuda beginning
late Wednesday or early Thursday.

SURF: Swells generated by Larry will continue to affect the Lesser
Antilles, portions of the Greater Antilles, and the Bahamas through
midweek, and impact Bermuda through the end of the week. Significant
swells should reach the east coast of the United States and Atlantic
Canada by midweek and continue affecting these shores through the
end of the week. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Hurricane Larry Advisory Number 30
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122021
1100 PM AST Tue Sep 07 2021

...LARGE LARRY CONTINUING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC...
...LIKELY TO PRODUCE DANGEROUS SWELLS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
COAST THIS WEEK...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.8N 56.8W
ABOUT 660 MI...1060 KM SE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...967 MB...28.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 36
hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of the large eye of Hurricane
Larry was located by an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft
near latitude 25.8 North, longitude 56.8 West. Larry is moving
toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this general motion
is expected to continue through Wednesday. A turn toward the
north-northwest and north with an increase in forward speed is
forecast on Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of Larry
should pass east of Bermuda on Thursday.

Data from the Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum
sustained winds remain near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher gusts.
Larry is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind
Scale. Slow weakening is forecast during the next several days.

Larry is a large hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up
to 70 miles (110 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds
extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km).

The minimum central pressure recently reported by the reconnaissance
aircraft is 967 mb (28.56 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Larry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible on Bermuda beginning
late Wednesday or early Thursday.

SURF: Swells generated by Larry will continue to affect the Lesser
Antilles, portions of the Greater Antilles, and the Bahamas through
midweek, and impact Bermuda through the end of the week. Significant
swells should reach the east coast of the United States and Atlantic
Canada by midweek and continue affecting these shores through the
end of the week. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Stewart



Hurricane Larry Discussion Number 30
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122021
1100 PM AST Tue Sep 07 2021

Larry's eye has become a little better defined since the previous
advisory, and the eyewall convective cloud tops have cooled, with a
nearly solid ring of -65C to -70C now surrounding the eye. Data from
an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the
central pressure has risen slightly to 966-968 mb and that peak
700-mb flight-level winds measured were 106 kt in the northeast
quadrant. These data would suggest that the intensity has decreased
a little to 95-96 kt. However, the peak flight-level wind of 106 kt
was measured in the wake of a strong eyewall convective burst,
suggesting that stronger winds could have been present in that
convection. Also, if the surrounding eyewall convective ring closes
off during the nocturnal convective maximum period in another six
hours, then Dvorak intensity estimates would increase from the
current T5.0/90 kt to T5.5/102 kt. Thus, Larry's intensity has been
maintained at 100 kt for this advisory in order to avoid possible
intensity vacillations.

The initial motion estimate is 325/10 kt, based on reconnaissance
aircraft fixes over the past 12 hours. There remains no significant
change to the track forecast or reasoning over the past 48 hours.
The latest NHC model guidance remains in strong agreement on Larry
continuing to move northwestward and then northward around the
western periphery of a deep-layer subtropical ridge during the next
48 hours or so. After passing east of Bermuda by early day 3, the
hurricane is forecast to accelerate northeastward and move into the
mid-latitude westerlies ahead of a large, eastward-moving trough
that is currently approaching the northeastern United States and
Atlantic Canada. By day 5, Larry is expected to move across the far
north Atlantic. The new NHC track forecast is similar to the
previous advisory track, and lies along the eastern edge of the
tightly packed simple- and corrected-consensus track models.

Larry's upper-level outflow pattern remains impressive, and has
even expanded and accelerated on the east side owing to a
southward-digging upper-level trough, which has enhanced the
outflow in that part of the hurricane. The vertical wind shear
affecting Larry is expected to remain low for the next 24 hours or
so while the hurricane passes over even warmer sea-surface
temperatures (SST) approaching 29.7 deg C, even though the oceanic
heat content will be decreasing. However, entrainment of dry
mid-level air along with eye fluctuations are expected to offset the
warmer SSTs. Thus, a slow but steady decrease in intensity through
48-60 hours is expected. Late in the forecast period, colder waters
and increasing southwesterly vertical wind shear exceeding 30 kt
should induce a faster rate of weakening. By 96-120 hours, the
global models also indicate Larry will be merging with a frontal
zone. Therefore, the new intensity forecast continues to show
extratropical transition during that time period. The official
intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory, and closely
follows the simple- and corrected-consensus intensity models IVCN
and NOAA-HCCA.

Key Messages:

1. Large swells generated by Larry will continue to affect the
Lesser Antilles, portions of the Greater Antilles, and the Bahamas
through midweek. Significant swells should reach the east coast of
the United States and Atlantic Canada by midweek and continue
affecting these shores through the end of the week. These swells
will likely cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions,
and beachgoers and other interests along these coasts are urged to
follow the guidance of lifeguards and local officials this week.

2. The center of Larry is forecast to pass east of Bermuda on
Thursday, but given Larry's large size, tropical storm conditions
are possible there Thursday, along with a risk of heavy rainfall
and coastal flooding. A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for
Bermuda and interests there should closely monitor the latest
forecast updates.

3. Larry is forecast to move near or over portions of southeastern
Newfoundland late Friday and Friday night as it transitions to a
hurricane-force post-tropical cyclone. There is a risk of impacts
from high winds, rainfall, and storm surge in portions of
Newfoundland, and interests there should monitor the progress of
Larry and updates to the forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/0300Z 25.8N 56.8W 100 KT 115 MPH
12H 08/1200Z 27.2N 58.0W 95 KT 110 MPH
24H 09/0000Z 29.2N 59.6W 95 KT 110 MPH
36H 09/1200Z 31.5N 61.3W 90 KT 105 MPH
48H 10/0000Z 34.6N 61.8W 90 KT 105 MPH
60H 10/1200Z 39.1N 60.1W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 11/0000Z 44.5N 55.7W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 12/0000Z 56.2N 43.6W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 13/0000Z 62.8N 33.6W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Stewart

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Hurricane Larry Advisory Number 31
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122021
500 AM AST Wed Sep 08 2021

...LARGE LARRY CONTINUES MOVING NORTHWESTWARD WITH NO CHANGE IN
STRENGTH...
...DANGEROUS SWELLS TO AFFECT MUCH OF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BEACHES
THIS WEEK...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.5N 57.3W
ABOUT 605 MI...970 KM SE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...967 MB...28.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 36
hours.

Interests in southeastern Newfoundland should monitor the progress
of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the large eye of Hurricane Larry was
located near latitude 26.5 North, longitude 57.3 West. Larry is
moving toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue through today. A turn toward the
north-northwest and north with an increase in forward speed is
forecast on Thursday. A faster northeastward motion is expected
by Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Larry should pass
east of Bermuda on Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher
gusts. Larry is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Gradual weakening is forecast during the
next several days, but Larry is expected to remain a hurricane
during that time.

Larry is a large hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up
to 70 miles (110 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds
extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 967 mb (28.56 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Larry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible on Bermuda beginning
tonight or early Thursday.

SURF: Swells generated by Larry will continue to affect the Leeward
Islands, portions of the Greater Antilles, and the Bahamas through
midweek, and impact Bermuda through the end of the week.
Significant swells from Larry will begin reaching the east coast of
the United States and Atlantic Canada today and continue affecting
these shores through the end of the week. These swells are likely
to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Brown




Hurricane Larry Discussion Number 31
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122021
500 AM AST Wed Sep 08 2021

Larry's overall satellite presentation has not changed appreciably
overnight, however there has been some recent cooling of the cloud
tops in the surrounding ring of convection. A fairly recent AMSR2
microwave overpass has revealed a fragmented inner eye with a band
or ring of convection at a fairly large radius from the center.
Subjective Dvorak Current Intensity (CI) numbers from TAFB and SAB
are T5.0 (90 kt) while objective UW/CIMSS ADT T-numbers are around
T5.8 (110 kt). A consensus of these estimates, and the latest
SATCON estimate of 100 kt, is used as the initial intensity for this
advisory. The next Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is
scheduled to investigate Larry this morning and should provide in
situ data to help better ascertain the intensity and structure of
the hurricane.

Larry continues to move northwestward or 325/9 kt. The track
forecast reasoning is once again unchanged from before. Larry is
expected to move northwestward and then northward around the
western portion of a deep-layer ridge during the next 36 to 48
hours, with the center of the hurricane passing east of Bermuda on
Thursday. After that time, Larry should begin to accelerate
northeastward ahead of a deep-layer trough that will be moving
across the northeastern United States, and this will bring the
cyclone near or over southeastern Newfoundland in about 72 hours.
The track guidance continues to be in excellent agreement, and only
slight modifications were made to the previous official forecast.
The updated NHC track is near the various consensus aids and the
latest GFS ensemble mean.

The hurricane is forecast to remain within an area of low vertical
wind shear for the next day or two, but the upper-ocean heat
content will be gradually decreasing along the forecast path.
This, along with some upwelling beneath the relatively slow-moving
hurricane, is likely to result in gradual weakening over the next
couple of days. After that time, increasing southwesterly shear and
much colder SSTs along the forecast track should result in
additional weakening. The global models indicate that Larry will
merge with a frontal zone and complete its extratropical transition
in a little more than 3 days. The NHC intensity forecast is once
again similar to the previous advisory and is in best agreement
with the IVCN consensus aid.

Key Messages:

1. Large swells generated by Larry will continue to affect the
Leeward Islands, portions of the Greater Antilles, and the Bahamas
today. Significant swells will begin to reach the east coast of
the United States and Atlantic Canada later today and continue
affecting these shores through the end of the week. These swells
will likely cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions,
and beachgoers and other interests along these coasts are urged to
follow the guidance of lifeguards and local officials this week.

2. The center of Larry is forecast to pass east of Bermuda on
Thursday, but given Larry's large size, tropical storm conditions
are possible there Thursday, along with a risk of heavy rainfall
and coastal flooding. A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for
Bermuda, and interests there should closely monitor the latest
forecast updates.

3. Larry is forecast to move near or over portions of southeastern
Newfoundland late Friday and Friday night as it transitions to a
hurricane-force post-tropical cyclone. There is a risk of impacts
from high winds, rainfall, and storm surge in portions of
Newfoundland, and interests there should monitor the progress of
Larry and updates to the forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/0900Z 26.5N 57.3W 100 KT 115 MPH
12H 08/1800Z 28.0N 58.7W 95 KT 110 MPH
24H 09/0600Z 30.1N 60.6W 95 KT 110 MPH
36H 09/1800Z 32.9N 61.9W 90 KT 105 MPH
48H 10/0600Z 36.7N 61.6W 85 KT 100 MPH
60H 10/1800Z 41.7N 58.3W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 11/0600Z 47.3N 52.4W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 12/0600Z 58.8N 40.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 13/0600Z 65.0N 33.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Brown

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Hurricane Larry Advisory Number 32
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122021
1100 AM AST Wed Sep 08 2021

...LARRY STILL A LARGE AND POWERFUL HURRICANE...
...CAUSING DANGEROUS SWELLS ON THE WESTERN ATLANTIC COAST
THIS WEEK...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.7N 58.3W
ABOUT 500 MI...805 KM SE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...966 MB...28.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

Interests in southeastern Newfoundland should monitor the progress
of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Larry was located
near latitude 27.7 North, longitude 58.3 West. Larry is moving
toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this general motion
is expected to continue through today. A turn toward the
north-northwest and north with an increase in forward speed is
forecast on Thursday, with a faster northeastward motion expected
by Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Larry should pass
east of Bermuda on Thursday, and move near or over southeastern
Newfoundland late Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 110 mph (175 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next few days, but
Larry is expected to remain a hurricane during that time.

Larry is a large hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward
up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force
winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 966 mb (28.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Larry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?key_messages

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected on Bermuda beginning
tonight or early Thursday.

SURF: Swells generated by Larry will continue to affect the Leeward
Islands, portions of the Greater Antilles, and the Bahamas through
midweek, and impact Bermuda through the end of the week.
Significant swells from Larry will begin reaching the east coast of
the United States and Atlantic Canada today and continue affecting
these shores through the end of the week. These swells are likely
to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.

RAINFALL: Outer rain bands from Hurricane Larry may periodically
impact Bermuda tonight into Thursday. Significant rainfall totals
are currently not expected, however briefly heavy rain rates within
these bands may result in an inch or two of rain through Thursday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch


Hurricane Larry Discussion Number 32
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122021
1100 AM AST Wed Sep 08 2021

Larry's eye has been only faintly apparent on recent satellite
imagery, but the hurricane is still maintaining a fair amount of
deep convection near/around the center. An Air Force Reserve Unit
Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigated Larry a little while ago and
observations found that the central pressure has risen only slightly
since yesterday, with peak flight level winds of 118 kt in the
northeastern quadrant. However, the highest SFMR-observed surface
winds were only 75 kt, indicating that the strong winds aloft are
not very effectively being transported to the surface. Given this,
along with the slightly-degraded appearance of the system, the
current intensity is reduced to 95 kt, which is just a bit above the
latest subjective and objective Dvorak estimates.

The hurricane is moving northwestward at a slightly faster clip, or
320/11 kt. Over the next 36 to 48 hours, Larry is expected to move
around the western periphery of a subtropical high pressure area
and pass to the east of Bermuda. Thereafter, the cyclone should
accelerate northeastward ahead of a deep-layer trough moving through
the northeastern United States and become embedded within the
mid-latitude southwesterly flow. This will take Larry near or over
southeastern Newfoundland in 60-66 hours and then over the far
North Atlantic. The official forecast track has not changed
significantly from those in the previous few advisories, and
remains close to the dynamical model consensus, TVCA.

Larry should remain in an environment of low vertical shear and
warm surface waters for the next 36-48 hours. However, the oceanic
heat content beneath the hurricane should be gradually decreasing
during the next few days. Only slow weakening is forecast, similar
to the latest NOAA corrected consensus, HCCA, prediction. In about
72 hours, the global models indicate that Larry will become
embedded within a frontal zone, so the NHC forecast shows it as an
extratropical cyclone by that time. In 5 days or less, the system
is expected to merge with another large cyclone at high latitudes.

Key Messages:

1. Large swells generated by Larry will continue to affect the
Leeward Islands, portions of the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas and
Bermuda. Significant swells will begin to reach the east coast of
the United States and Atlantic Canada later today and continue
affecting these shores through the end of the week. These swells
will likely cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions,
and beachgoers and other interests along these coasts are urged to
follow the guidance of lifeguards and local officials this week.

2. The center of Larry is forecast to pass east of Bermuda on
Thursday, but given Larry's large size, tropical storm conditions
are expected there there Thursday, along with a risk of coastal
flooding. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Bermuda, and
interests there should closely monitor the latest forecast updates.

3. Larry is forecast to move near or over portions of southeastern
Newfoundland late Friday and Friday night as it undergoes transition
to a hurricane-force post-tropical cyclone. There is an increasing
risk of impacts from high winds, rainfall, and storm surge in
portions of Newfoundland, and interests there should monitor updates
to the forecast.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/1500Z 27.7N 58.3W 95 KT 110 MPH
12H 09/0000Z 29.1N 59.6W 95 KT 110 MPH
24H 09/1200Z 31.6N 61.3W 95 KT 110 MPH
36H 10/0000Z 34.7N 61.9W 90 KT 105 MPH
48H 10/1200Z 39.1N 60.4W 85 KT 100 MPH
60H 11/0000Z 44.4N 55.6W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 11/1200Z 50.5N 49.0W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 12/1200Z 61.0N 37.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 13/1200Z...MERGED

$$
Forecaster Pasch

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Hurricane Larry Advisory Number 33
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122021
500 PM AST Wed Sep 08 2021

...LARRY REMAINS LARGE AND POWERFUL...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.9N 59.2W
ABOUT 405 MI...655 KM ESE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...966 MB...28.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

Interests in southeastern Newfoundland should monitor the progress
of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Larry was located
near latitude 28.9 North, longitude 59.2 West. Larry is moving
toward the northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h), and a turn toward the
north-northwest and north with an increase in forward speed is
forecast on Thursday, with a faster northeastward motion expected by
Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Larry should pass east
of Bermuda on Thursday, and move near or over southeastern
Newfoundland late Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 110 mph (175 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next couple of
days, but Larry is expected to remain a hurricane during that time.

Larry is a large hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward
up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force
winds extend outward up to 240 miles (390 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 966 mb (28.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Larry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?key_messages

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected on Bermuda beginning
tonight or early Thursday.

SURF: Swells generated by Larry will continue to affect the Leeward
Islands, portions of the Greater Antilles, and the Bahamas through
midweek, and impact Bermuda through the end of the week. Significant
swells from Larry will continue affecting the east coast of the
United States and Atlantic Canada through the end of the week.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.

RAINFALL: Outer rain bands from Hurricane Larry may periodically
impact Bermuda tonight into Thursday. Significant rainfall totals
are currently not expected, however briefly heavy rain rates within
these bands may result in an inch or two of rain through Thursday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch




Hurricane Larry Discussion Number 33
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122021
500 PM AST Wed Sep 08 2021

Larry's overall organization has shown little change on satellite
images this afternoon. The eye remains rather ill-defined but the
hurricane continues to produce some strong convection near/around
the center. Cirrus-level outflow remains quite well defined,
particularly to the northwest. The current intensity estimate is
held at 95 kt, which is only slightly above the latest Dvorak
estimates. Another Air Force Reserve Unit Hurricane Hunter
aircraft is scheduled to investigate Larry this evening to
provide a new intensity estimate.

The hurricane continues heading a little faster toward the
northwest, or at about 325/13 kt. The track forecast philosophy
remains about the same as before. Larry should move around the
western side of a deep-layer subtropical anticyclone over the
central Atlantic for the next 36 to 48 hours, passing east of
Bermuda tomorrow. After that, the hurricane is expected to
accelerate northeastward on the east side of a deep-layer trough
moving through the eastern United States, and Larry will move near
or over southeastern Newfoundland in roughly 60 hours. Then, the
cyclone is forecast to move over the far north Atlantic. The
official forecast is close to the dynamical model consensus
solution and, again, very similar to the previous NHC track.

Based on the dynamical model guidance, weak to moderate vertical
shear should prevail over Larry during the next couple of days.
Sea surface temperatures below the cyclone begin to cool
significantly after 48 hours, which should induce weakening.
However, baroclinic forcing associated with the trough to the west
may help the hurricane maintain some of its intensity over cooler
waters, as suggested by the global models. The official intensity
forecast follows the model consensus and keeps Larry at hurricane
strength even after extratropical transition. In 5 days or less,
the system should merge with another large cyclonic circulation over
the north Atlantic.

Key Messages:

1. Large swells generated by Larry will continue to affect the
Leeward Islands, portions of the Greater Antilles, the
Bahamas, Bermuda, and the east coast of the United States and
Atlantic Canada through the end of the week. These swells will
likely cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions, and
beachgoers and other interests along these coasts are urged to
follow the guidance of lifeguards and local officials this week.

2. The center of Larry is forecast to pass east of Bermuda on
Thursday, but given Larry's large size, tropical storm conditions
are expected there there Thursday, along with a risk of coastal
flooding. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Bermuda, and
interests there should closely monitor the latest forecast updates.

3. Larry is forecast to move near or over portions of southeastern
Newfoundland late Friday and Friday night as it undergoes transition
to a hurricane-force post-tropical cyclone. There is an increasing
risk of impacts from high winds, rainfall, and storm surge in
portions of Newfoundland, and interests there should monitor updates
to the forecast.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/2100Z 28.9N 59.2W 95 KT 110 MPH
12H 09/0600Z 30.6N 60.5W 95 KT 110 MPH
24H 09/1800Z 33.3N 61.8W 95 KT 110 MPH
36H 10/0600Z 37.0N 61.5W 90 KT 105 MPH
48H 10/1800Z 42.0N 58.5W 85 KT 100 MPH
60H 11/0600Z 48.0N 52.0W 75 KT 85 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 11/1800Z 54.0N 45.0W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 12/1800Z 62.0N 37.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 13/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Hurricane Larry Advisory Number 34
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122021
1100 PM AST Wed Sep 08 2021

...LARRY STILL A VERY LARGE HURRICANE...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.7N 60.3W
ABOUT 320 MI...515 KM ESE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...969 MB...28.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

Interests in southeastern Newfoundland should monitor the progress
of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Larry was located
near latitude 29.7 North, longitude 60.3 West. Larry is moving
toward the north-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h), and a turn toward
the north-northwest and north with an increase in forward speed is
forecast on Thursday, with a faster northeastward motion expected by
Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Larry should pass east
of Bermuda on Thursday, and move near or over southeastern
Newfoundland late Friday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near near 100 mph (155
km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast during the
next couple of days, but Larry is expected to remain a hurricane
during that time. Larry should become fully post-tropical by
Saturday, after passing by Newfoundland.

Larry remains very large, with Hurricane-force winds extending
outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center and
tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 240 miles (390 km).

The minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 969 mb (28.62 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Larry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?key_messages

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected on Bermuda beginning
tonight or early Thursday.

SURF: Swells generated by Larry will continue to affect the Leeward
Islands, portions of the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, and Bermuda
through the end of the week. Significant swells from Larry will
continue affecting the east coast of the United States and Atlantic
Canada through the end of the week. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.

RAINFALL: Outer rain bands from Hurricane Larry may periodically
impact Bermuda tonight into Thursday. Significant rainfall totals
are currently not expected, however briefly heavy rain rates within
these bands may result in an inch or two of rain through Thursday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Papin




Hurricane Larry Discussion Number 34
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122021
1100 PM AST Wed Sep 08 2021

The infrared satellite presentation of Larry this evening is giving
the false impression of a well-organized hurricane, with a ring of
colder cloud tops (-65 to -70 C) and a warm spot within. However, we
are fortunate to have in-situ data provided by an Air Force
Reconnaissance Hurricane Hunter mission investigating Larry this
evening. Their observations show that Larry's center is actually
southwest of the warm spot seen on satellite. In fact, the plane was
unable to identify an eye with Larry, and the highest flight-level
and SFMR winds were found nearly 80 nautical miles away from the
center. Moreover, there remains a large discrepancy between the peak
700-mb flight level winds (108-kt) versus the much lower SFMR peak
values (67-kt). This suggests that the 90 percent reduction factor
that is typically applied to 700-mb flight level winds in the
eyewall may not be appropriate for this hurricane given its very
large radius of maximum winds more associated with weaker outer
convection. Given these factors, the latest NHC initial intensity
has been lowered to 85 kt for this advisory. This intensity is also
a good compromise between the SAB and TAFB subjective Dvorak
estimates.

The hurricane's heading is still off to the northwest with the
latest motion at 330/14 kt. The track forecast philosophy has not
changed much for the last few days, with Larry moving around the
western periphery of a deep-layer subtropical anticyclone over the
central Atlantic. The hurricane should make its closest approach to
the east of Bermuda tomorrow as it gradually turns north-northwest
and north. After that, the hurricane will begin to dramatically
accelerate to the northeast as Larry is picked up by a deep-layer
trough moving offshore of the eastern United States. The latest
forecast track is quite similar to the previous one, and takes Larry
across the southeast portion of Newfoundland in 48-60 hours. The
official forecast remains close to the tightly clustered track
guidance consensus.

The current structure of Larry appears to be somewhat tilted with
height, with the low-level center identified by recon located to the
southwest of the apparent center on IR satellite. While the shear as
diagnosed by SHIPS appears to be lower, it appears dry air has
significantly disrupted Larry's inner core structure, to the point
that it likely will be unable to take advantage of the more
favorable conditions. The latest NHC intensity forecast is lower
than the previous one, owing to the lower initial intensity, but
begins to show more pronounced weakening after 24 hours when the
hurricane will accelerate poleward of the northern wall of the Gulf
Stream. However, Larry is still forecast to be a hurricane as it
passes near or over Newfoundland, though likely beginning to
undergo extratropical transition. The models continue to maintain
Larry as a large formidable cyclone after extratropical transition
is complete while it moves into the far north Atlantic east of
Greenland. This cyclone will eventually merge with another
extratropical cyclone by the end of the forecast period.

Key Messages:

1. Large swells generated by Larry will continue to affect the
Leeward Islands, portions of the Greater Antilles, the
Bahamas, Bermuda, and the east coast of the United States and
Atlantic Canada through the end of the week. These swells will
likely cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions, and
beachgoers and other interests along these coasts are urged to
follow the guidance of lifeguards and local officials this week.

2. The center of Larry is forecast to pass east of Bermuda on
Thursday, but given Larry's large size, tropical storm conditions
are expected there on Thursday, along with a risk of coastal
flooding. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Bermuda, and
interests there should closely monitor the latest forecast updates.

3. Larry is forecast to move near or over portions of southeastern
Newfoundland late Friday and Friday night as it undergoes transition
to a hurricane-force post-tropical cyclone. There is an increasing
risk of impacts from high winds, rainfall, and storm surge in
portions of Newfoundland, and interests there should monitor updates
to the forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/0300Z 29.7N 60.3W 85 KT 100 MPH
12H 09/1200Z 31.5N 61.5W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 10/0000Z 34.9N 62.3W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 10/1200Z 39.3N 60.8W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 11/0000Z 45.2N 55.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
60H 11/1200Z 51.6N 48.2W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 12/0000Z 57.4N 41.6W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 13/0000Z 63.8N 35.6W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 14/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Papin

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Hurricane Larry Advisory Number 35
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122021
500 AM AST Thu Sep 09 2021

...BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE RADAR SHOWS RAINBANDS APPROACHING...
...HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT FOR
SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.9N 61.1W
ABOUT 240 MI...385 KM ESE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...969 MB...28.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Southeastern Newfoundland from St. Schotts to Pouch Cove

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Southeastern Newfoundland from Lamaline to west of St. Schotts
* Southeastern Newfoundland from north of Pouch Cove to Bonavista

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in southeastern Newfoundland should monitor the
progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Larry was located
near latitude 30.9 North, longitude 61.1 West. Larry is moving
toward the north-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h), and a turn toward
the north-northwest and north with an increase in forward speed is
forecast today, with a faster northeastward motion expected by
Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Larry should pass
east of Bermuda today, and move near or over southeastern
Newfoundland Friday night or early Saturday morning.

Maximum sustained winds are near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next couple
of days, but Larry is expected to remain a hurricane during that
time. Larry should become an extratropical cyclone early Saturday,
after passing by Newfoundland, then weaken further while it passes
southeast of Greenland Sunday night. Larry is expected to be
absorbed by a larger baroclinic system east of Greenland Monday.

Larry remains very large, with Hurricane-force winds extending
outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center and
tropical-storm-force winds extending outward up to 220 miles (350
km) from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 969 mb (28.62 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Larry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?key_messages

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected on Bermuda beginning
later this morning.

Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area in
southeastern Newfoundland Friday night with tropical storm
conditions possible by late Friday. Tropical storm conditions are
possible in the tropical storm watch area in southeastern
Newfoundland by late Friday.

SURF: Swells generated by Larry will continue to affect the Leeward
Islands, portions of the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, and Bermuda
through the end of the week. Significant swells from Larry will
continue affecting the east coast of the United States and Atlantic
Canada through the end of the week. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.

RAINFALL: Outer rain bands from Hurricane Larry may periodically
impact Bermuda Thursday. Significant rainfall totals are currently
not expected, however briefly heavy rain rates within these bands
may result in an inch or two of rain through Thursday. Heavy rains
from Larry will move quickly across eastern New Foundland Friday
night, producing 1 to 2 inches of rain.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Roberts


Hurricane Larry Discussion Number 35
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122021
500 AM AST Thu Sep 09 2021

This morning's conventional satellite presentation appears to
indicate a more banding eye feature rather than a previously noted
irregular-type eye. A timely Advanced Technology Microwave
Sounder (ATMS) image and an AMSR2 lower frequency pass, however,
clearly shows the majority of the eyewall intact. The primary
curved band wrapping around the west semicircle consists of -78
Celsius cloud tops. The western portion of the eyewall is now
discernible on the Bermuda Weather Service Radar. The initial
intensity is held at possibly generous 85 kt for this advisory and
is based on a compromise of the subjective and objective satellite
intensity estimates. A 53rd Air Force Reserve Unit reconnaissance
mission is scheduled for this morning and will provide new
information on Larry's intensity.

The 0000 UTC GFS global model sounding revealed 15 to 20 kt of
southwesterly effective shear impinging on the western
half of the cyclone while the UW-CIMSS shear analysis showed 20-25
kt of bulk shear in the same area. This, along with a
significantly higher statically stable surrounding environment
(about 55 percent RH), has disrupted the inner core and more than
likely created a SW to NW tilt with height. Larry is expected to
change little in strength during the next 12 to 24 hours, then
gradually weaken as the cyclone traverses sharply decreasing cooler
water north of the gulf stream while the southwesterly shear
increases significantly. The dynamic forcing, however, associated
with a mid-latitude major shortwave trough near Atlantic Canada
should aid in maintaining Larry as a hurricane while it passes near
or over Newfoundland. Afterwards, Larry is expected to transition
into a large extratropical cyclone, as indicated by the FSU Cyclone
Phase Diagram. By early next week, Larry is expected to be
absorbed by a larger extratropical low.

The initial motion is estimated to be north-northwestward, or
330/14 kt. The track philosophy remains unchanged. Larry is
expected to move around the western periphery of a subtropical high
pressure system anchored over the central Atlantic. The hurricane
should make its closest approach to the east of Bermuda later today
while slowly turning north-northwestward and northward. Through the
remaining portion of the forecast, Larry should accelerate
generally northeastward in response to the aforementioned
mid-latitude trough and move near or over southeastern Newfoundland
Friday night. The NHC forecast has been nudged a bit to the left
of the previous advisory and is close to the various multi-model
consensus aids.

The wind radii were decreased slightly in all quadrants based on
earlier METOP A and B scatterometer passes.

Key Messages:

1. Large swells generated by Larry will continue to affect the
Leeward Islands, portions of the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas,
Bermuda, and the east coast of the United States and Atlantic
Canada through the end of the week. These swells will likely cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions, and beachgoers
and other interests along these coasts are urged to follow the
guidance of lifeguards and local officials this week.

2. The center of Larry is forecast to pass east of Bermuda later
today, Tropical storm conditions are expected today, along with a
risk of coastal flooding. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for
Bermuda, and interests there should closely monitor the latest
forecast updates.

3. Larry is forecast to move near or over portions of southeastern
Newfoundland Friday night, early Saturday morning as it undergoes
transition to a hurricane-force post-tropical cyclone. Hurricane
and Tropical Storm Watches are in effect for southeastern
Newfoundland. There is an increasing risk of impacts from high
winds, rainfall, and storm surge in portions of Newfoundland, and
interests there should monitor updates to the forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/0900Z 30.9N 61.1W 85 KT 100 MPH
12H 09/1800Z 32.9N 62.1W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 10/0600Z 36.7N 62.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 10/1800Z 41.8N 59.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 11/0600Z 47.9N 52.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
60H 11/1800Z 54.1N 45.9W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 12/0600Z 59.2N 41.2W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 13/0600Z...ABSORBED

$$
Forecaster Roberts

[cycloneye]

Hurricane Larry Discussion Number 36
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122021
1100 AM AST Thu Sep 09 2021

Larry continues to feature a banding-type eye on satellite images,
and the eye is clearly evident on the Bermuda radar. Satellite and
radar data also show a moat-like area of low precipitation between
the eyewall and a large band of convection farther removed from the
center. This outer band is expected to affect Bermuda or the
waters just east of the island over the next several hours.
Observations from an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
that the central pressure has changed little since yesterday.
Flight-level winds from the aircraft were as high as 95 kt, but the
peak SFMR-observed surface winds were only 69 kt. This again
indicates that in this case the strong winds aloft are not being
transported to the surface as effectively as in a typical hurricane
at lower latitudes. Blending these data results in an intensity
estimate of 80 kt for this advisory. This is just a little higher
than the latest subjective Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB.

The hurricane is gradually turning to the right and the initial
motion is 340/14 kt. Larry is currently moving around the western
side of a deep-layer subtropical anticyclone over the central
Atlantic, and is passing east of Bermuda. The flow on the east
side of a strong mid-level trough moving from the northeastern
United States to Atlantic Canada will cause Larry to turn toward
the northeast and accelerate in 24 to 48 hours. Larry will move
near or over southeastern Newfoundland in 36 to 48 hours, and
then move over the far north Atlantic around the end of the
forecast period. There is very little change to the NHC track
forecast from the previous advisory, which remains close to the
various consensus model solutions.

Larry is likely remain over warm waters with low shear for
another 24 hours or so. Thus the system will probably maintain
much of its intensity into Friday. By Friday night and over the
weekend, cooler SSTs and increasing shear should cause weakening.
However, baroclinic forcing associated with the trough to the west
of the hurricane could slow the weakening process. The official
intensity forecast keeps Larry at hurricane-force through 48 hours
even as it undergoes extratropical transition. In 3-4 days, the
global models show Larry merging with another large extratropical
cyclone over the north Atlantic.

Key Messages:

1. Large swells generated by Larry will continue to affect the
Leeward Islands, portions of the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas,
Bermuda, and the east coast of the United States and Atlantic
Canada through the end of the week. These swells will likely cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions, and beachgoers
and other interests along these coasts are urged to follow the
guidance of lifeguards and local officials this week.

2. The center of Larry is forecast to pass east of Bermuda later
today, and tropical storm conditions are expected there today,
along with a risk of coastal flooding.

3. Larry is forecast to move near or over portions of southeastern
Newfoundland Friday night or early Saturday morning as it undergoes
transition to a hurricane-force post-tropical cyclone. Hurricane
conditions are storm surge are possible in portions of southeastern
Newfoundland where a hurricane watch is in effect. Interests there
should monitor updates to the forecast.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/1500Z 32.0N 61.6W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 10/0000Z 34.5N 62.2W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 10/1200Z 39.0N 60.8W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 11/0000Z 44.8N 56.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 11/1200Z 51.3N 49.1W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 12/0000Z 57.0N 43.5W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 12/1200Z 61.0N 40.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 13/1200Z...MERGED

$$
Forecaster Pasch

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Hurricane Larry Advisory Number 37
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122021
500 PM AST Thu Sep 09 2021

...LARRY BEGINNING TO MOVE AWAY FROM BERMUDA...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.9N 62.2W
ABOUT 185 MI...300 KM NE OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 1005 MI...1615 KM SSW OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...966 MB...28.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Canadian Hurricane Centre has issued a Hurricane Warning
from Arnold's Cove to Jones Harbour, Newfoundland.

The Canadian Hurricane Centre has also issued a Tropical Storm
Warning from Lamaline to west of Arnold's Cove, and from north of
Jones Harbour to Bonavista, Newfoundland.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Southeastern Newfoundland from Arnold's Cove to Jones Harbour

Newfoundland

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda
* Southeastern Newfoundland from Lamaline to west of Arnold's Cove
* Southeastern Newfoundland from north of Jones Harbor to Bonavista

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36
hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

Interests elsewhere in southeastern Newfoundland should monitor the
progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Larry was located
near latitude 33.9 North, longitude 62.2 West. Larry is moving
toward the north-northwest near 20 mph (31 km/h), and a turn toward
the north with an increase in forward speed is expected tonight,
with a faster northeastward motion forecast by Friday. On the
forecast track, the center of Larry will continue to move away from
Bermuda tonight, and move near or over southeastern Newfoundland
Friday night or early Saturday morning.

Maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast to begin on Friday, but Larry
is expected to remain a hurricane until it passes Newfoundland.
Larry should become an extratropical cyclone on Saturday, then
weaken further while it passes southeast of Greenland Sunday night.
Larry is expected to be absorbed by a larger extratropical low east
of Greenland by Monday.

Larry is a large hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up
to 90 miles (150 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds
extend outward up to 220 miles (350 km). Pearl Island, Bermuda,
reported sustained winds of 39 mph (63 km/h) with a gust to 45 mph
(74 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 966 mb (28.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Larry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?key_messages

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected on Bermuda for the
next few hours.

Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane warning area
in southeastern Newfoundland Friday night, with tropical storm
conditions expected by late Friday. Tropical storm conditions
are expected in the tropical storm warning area in southeastern
Newfoundland by late Friday.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce
coastal flooding within the warning areas in southeastern
Newfoundland.

SURF: Swells generated by Larry will continue to affect the Leeward
Islands, portions of the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, and Bermuda
through the end of the week. Significant swells from Larry will
continue affecting the east coast of the United States and Atlantic
Canada through the end of the week. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.

RAINFALL: Outer rain bands from Hurricane Larry may periodically
impact Bermuda today. Significant rainfall totals are currently
not expected, however briefly heavy rain rates within these bands
may result in an inch or two of rain through today.

Heavy rains from Larry will move quickly across eastern Newfoundland
Friday night, producing 1 to 2 inches of rain.



NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch


Hurricane Larry Discussion Number 37
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122021
500 PM AST Thu Sep 09 2021

A faint eye is still discernible on visible satellite images along
with some banding features. On the Bermuda radar, the eyewall is
partially open over the southern semicircle of the hurricane.
Larry still has a prominent upper-tropospheric outflow pattern,
especially over the northern portion of the circulation. The
advisory intensity is held at 80 kt, just above the latest
Dvorak Current Intensity Numbers from TAFB and SAB.

Larry is now heading a little west of north at an increasing forward
speed, and the initial motion is 345/17 kt. The hurricane has been
moving around the western side of a large deep-layer high pressure
area centered over the central Atlantic. By Friday, the system
should accelerate northeastward ahead of a strong mid-tropospheric
trough over the northeastern United States, and pass near or over
southeastern Newfoundland within 36 hours. Thereafter, post-tropical
cyclone Larry should move over the far North Atlantic. The official
track forecast again lies close to the various consensus model
predictions.

The hurricane is expected to remain over warm waters with weak
vertical shear for another 12 to 24 hours. Thereafter, Larry is
forecast to move over the cooler waters north of the Gulf Stream
and the shear will increase. These factors should induce
weakening, but possible baroclinic forcing associated with the
trough to the west of the cyclone could result in Larry maintaining
some strength over the next few days. The NHC intensity forecast
is similar to the latest NOAA corrected-consensus guidance, HCCA.
Global model predictions indicate that Larry will merge with a
front, and therefore become an extratropical cyclone, in 48 hours.
These models also show the system merging with another large
extratropical low over the north Atlantic in 3 to 4 days.


Key Messages:

1. Larry is forecast to move near or over portions of southeastern
Newfoundland Friday night or early Saturday morning as it undergoes
transition to a hurricane-force post-tropical cyclone. Hurricane
conditions and dangerous storm surge are expected in portions of
southeastern Newfoundland where a Hurricane Warning in effect.

2. Large swells generated by Larry will continue to affect the
Leeward Islands, portions of the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas,
Bermuda, and the east coast of the United States and Atlantic
Canada through the end of the week. These swells will cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions, and beachgoers and
other interests along these coasts are urged to follow the
guidance of lifeguards and local officials.

3. Tropical storm conditions are expected on Bermuda through
this evening, along with a risk of coastal flooding.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/2100Z 33.9N 62.2W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 10/0600Z 36.8N 61.8W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 10/1800Z 42.2N 59.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 11/0600Z 48.4N 52.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 11/1800Z 55.0N 46.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 12/0600Z 59.5N 42.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 12/1800Z 61.5N 40.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 13/1800Z...MERGED

$$
Forecaster Pasch