ATL: MINDY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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toad strangler
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Re: ATL: MINDY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#261 Postby toad strangler » Wed Sep 08, 2021 5:29 pm

cheezyWXguy wrote:Wow, what a waste of a name. Even Claudette was more impressive than this. NHC are the pros, but I’m slowly shifting to the idea that classification criteria is become a bit overly generous as time goes by.


Nah, in the past, the pros didn't have the tools to make the right call.
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Re: ATL: MINDY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#262 Postby Zonacane » Wed Sep 08, 2021 5:30 pm

Part of the weather community throwing a fit because the NHC names legitimate tropical cyclones is weird.
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Re: ATL: MINDY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#263 Postby toad strangler » Wed Sep 08, 2021 5:34 pm

Zonacane wrote:Part of the weather community throwing a fit because the NHC names legitimate tropical cyclones is weird.


Agree. When a storm has a great presentation on sat they say WE HAVE TO LOOK UNDER THE HOOD TO SEE WHAT'S REALLY GOING ON, DON'T GET EXCITED. :spam:
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Re: ATL: MINDY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#264 Postby vbhoutex » Wed Sep 08, 2021 5:37 pm

toad strangler wrote:
cheezyWXguy wrote:Wow, what a waste of a name. Even Claudette was more impressive than this. NHC are the pros, but I’m slowly shifting to the idea that classification criteria is become a bit overly generous as time goes by.


Nah, in the past, the pros didn't have the tools to make the right call.

Data I''ve seen and the current radar presentation tell me it is a "good" call, but a close one. With the call they can get warnings up now. Call it an abundance of caution. We all know on a call like this they NHC detractors will come out of the woodwork no matter what they do.
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Re: ATL: MINDY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#265 Postby ronjon » Wed Sep 08, 2021 5:44 pm

tolakram wrote:Evidence the NHC has once again done their job is increasing. This only increases the pressure on crow futures.

Just ignore the banding, probably just a coincidence. :lol:



And the 40 kt wind from the buoy just SE of the center where there aren't any thunderstorms.
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Re: ATL: MINDY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#266 Postby grapealcoholic » Wed Sep 08, 2021 5:45 pm

:double:

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Re: ATL: MINDY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#267 Postby eastcoastFL » Wed Sep 08, 2021 5:48 pm

That buoy seeing some quick action

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Re: ATL: MINDY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#268 Postby wxman57 » Wed Sep 08, 2021 5:55 pm

ronjon wrote:
tolakram wrote:Evidence the NHC has once again done their job is increasing. This only increases the pressure on crow futures.

Just ignore the banding, probably just a coincidence. :lol:



And the 40 kt wind from the buoy just SE of the center where there aren't any thunderstorms.


Here's the buoy 42036 that Beven mentioned. Max wind 25 kts not 40 kts. Buoy 42039 had a brief 35 kt wind when a squall passed, but it's down to 30 kts now. Just passing squalls, not a 35kt circulation.

https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page. ... tion=42036
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Re: ATL: MINDY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#269 Postby jconsor » Wed Sep 08, 2021 5:56 pm

Last edited by jconsor on Wed Sep 08, 2021 6:08 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: MINDY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#270 Postby grapealcoholic » Wed Sep 08, 2021 5:57 pm

Pretty cool to see it steadily organizing on radar
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Re: ATL: MINDY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#271 Postby wxman57 » Wed Sep 08, 2021 6:01 pm

grapealcoholic wrote:Pretty cool to see it steadily organizing on radar


That's not at the surface, though. I'm having a hard time identifying a surface circulation. What a piece of junk. Wind up to 15 mph in Apalachicola. Highest on the coast. So-called center will be inland in an hour. This ends my now 12-hr day thanks to NHC. This isn't even the tough storm. Super Typhoon Chanthu is a real challenge. Worked 2.5 hrs on that one.

P.S. Apalachicola down to 5 kts from SSE as the center approaches to the west...
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Re: ATL: MINDY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#272 Postby MGC » Wed Sep 08, 2021 6:01 pm

Little doubt 91L has quickly developed into a TS this afternoon. Radar presentation is improving with spiral bands forming in the eastern semicircle of the cyclone. The pressure drop as Mindy passed the buoy is a dead giveaway that a surface circulation exists. Sure, Mindy isn't going to win a beauty contest for TCs. GFS wins a cigar on this one. Another rapidly intensifying TC in the GOM......MGC
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Re: ATL: MINDY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#273 Postby aspen » Wed Sep 08, 2021 6:04 pm

I can see the LLC on the 1minute floater imagery, and radar looks good for a newly formed system. This is definitely a TC despite looking like a ripped up piece of paper.
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Re: ATL: MINDY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#274 Postby grapealcoholic » Wed Sep 08, 2021 6:05 pm

wxman57 wrote:
grapealcoholic wrote:Pretty cool to see it steadily organizing on radar


That's not at the surface, though. I'm having a hard time identifying a surface circulation. What a piece of junk. Wind up to 15 mph in Apalachicola. Highest on the coast. So-called center will be inland in an hour. This ends my now 12-hr day thanks to NHC. This isn't even the tough storm. Super Typhoon Chanthu is a real challenge. Worked 2.5 hrs on that one.

P.S. Apalachicola down to 5 kts from SSE as the center approaches to the west...

Seems like latent heat fluxes are occurring though.
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Re: ATL: MINDY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#275 Postby jconsor » Wed Sep 08, 2021 6:05 pm

This is incorrect... perhaps you didn't see the stronger one-minute winds at buoy 42039 (not shown on NDBC site after the fact, but available every 10 min in real-time): https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page. ... tion=42039.

Also many people have failed to notice that buoy 42039's anemometer height is at 4m so winds need to be converted! One-minute sustained winds (converted to standard 10 m level) reached 46 kt there around 21Z:

Didn't take a screenshot of the winds reported in Tweet below, but trust me on this, I saw them on NDBC site:
https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1435721285850513410

Here I did take a screenshot of 44 kt one-minute sustained winds (again converted from reported 38.9 kt at 4 m, to 10 m level)
https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1435710750149038082


wxman57 wrote:Here's the buoy 42036 that Beven mentioned. Max wind 25 kts not 40 kts. Buoy 42039 had a brief 35 kt wind when a squall passed, but it's down to 30 kts now. Just passing squalls, not a 35kt circulation.

https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page. ... tion=42036
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Re: ATL: MINDY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#276 Postby galaxy401 » Wed Sep 08, 2021 6:06 pm

Those radar loops show that Mindy is no doubt a tropical storm, and a possibly strengthening one at that.
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Re: ATL: MINDY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#277 Postby grapealcoholic » Wed Sep 08, 2021 6:08 pm

galaxy401 wrote:Those radar loops show that Mindy is no doubt a tropical storm, and a possibly strengthening one at that.

It's no doubt strengthening, but I'm trying to discern how tight the core is
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Re: ATL: MINDY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#278 Postby Aric Dunn » Wed Sep 08, 2021 6:08 pm

Sorry. but anyone saying this is not at the surface is in denial ( has been since this morning.)... the evidence is everywhere.
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Re: ATL: MINDY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#279 Postby cjrciadt » Wed Sep 08, 2021 6:10 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:Sorry. but anyone saying this is not at the surface is in denial ( has been since this morning.)... the evidence is everywhere.

Welcome back! Missed you during Ida.
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Re: ATL: MINDY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#280 Postby AtlanticWind » Wed Sep 08, 2021 6:17 pm

This is wrapping up fairly quickly , if it had been moving slower we could have had a strong T.S. out of this say 55/60 mph
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