WPAC: 17W - Post-Tropical

[Hayabusa]

93W.INVEST

93W.INVEST.15kts.1010mb.24N.163E

[Hayabusa]

[1900hurricane]

Hello Linda.

[Hayabusa]

WWJP27 RJTD 010000
WARNING AND SUMMARY 010000.
WARNING VALID 020000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1012 HPA AT 25N 164E NW 10 KT.

[doomhaMwx]

Hello Linda.

I actually had to check out of curiosity . While the remnants of Linda did cross the Dateline, it appears that 93W is a separate entity.

[mrbagyo]

uh, finally!
we've got some activity now in this basin.

[Hayabusa]

WTPN21 PGTW 012000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 93W)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 25.9N 160.5E TO 29.8N 157.4E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 28 TO 33 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 011800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 26.1N 160.3E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 14
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 24.9N 163.3E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 26.1N 160.3E, APPROXIMATELY
538 NM NORTHWEST OF WAKE ISLAND. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) AND A 011808Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE
DEPICT FLARING CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION (LLC). UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW DUE TO ITS
PROXIMITY TO AN UPPER LEVEL LOW, LOW TO MODERATE VWS (10-20 KTS) AND
WARM SSTS (28-29C). AMSU THERMAL CROSS-SECTIONS, THE HIGHLY
ASYMMETRIC WIND FIELD AND A RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS GREATER THAN 100
NM ALL LEND SUPPORT TO THE CURRENT ASSESSMENT THAT INVEST 93W IS A
SUBTROPICAL LOW. HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM IS EXHIBITING SIGNS OF
TRANSITIONING TO A TROPICAL SYSTEM, WITH THE WIND FIELD BECOMING
MORE SYMMETRIC AND THE RMW DECREASING. FULL TRANSITION TO A TROPICAL
LOW IS POSSIBLE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. GLOBAL MODELS DO NOT
DEPICT INTENSIFICATION BEYOND 24 HOURS. HOWEVER, THE ENVIRONMENT AND
CURRENT CONDITIONS STILL ALLOW FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF DEVELOPMENT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
022000Z.
//
NNNN

[Hayabusa]

17W SEVENTEEN 210902 0000 26.9N 159.7E WPAC 30 1005

[Sciencerocks]

[doomhaMwx]

Looks like the upgrade is primarily based on the latest ASCAT pass, though satellite presentation and wind field still resemble that of a subtropical system.

[Sciencerocks]

[Teban54]

https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img922/9745/6SHaq2.gif

Looks like Kate found a buddy on the other side of the globe.