ATL: MINDY - Models

[N2FSU]

0Z GFS


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[N2FSU]

6Z GFS


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[ronjon]

Looks like pretty good agreement between GFS and Euro now on a weak low developing off the Florida panhandle - perhaps a tropical depression by wednesday night. Convection getting a little healthier in the southern GOM this morning as the system continues to slowly pull north.

[N2FSU]

12Z GFS stronger once again


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[chaser1]

If something were to come out of 91L, I have to think it'll originate in the deep convection east of that LLC this a.m. that got quickly obliterated. I believe there is a weak mid level rotation but it would need time. I personally think that the GFS is a bit too fast on the primary vorticity reaching the Panhandle late Wednesday night. Clearly though, model support is meh... Can't even get our crazy uncle OR NAM to bite on development LOL

[Dean4Storms]

If something were to come out of 91L, I have to think it'll originate in the deep convection east of that LLC this a.m. that got quickly obliterated. I believe there is a weak mid level rotation but it would need time. I personally think that the GFS is a bit too fast on the primary vorticity reaching the Panhandle late Wednesday night. Clearly though, model support is meh... Can't even get our crazy uncle OR NAM to bite on development LOL

18z NAM 3km does develop and takes toward PCB with 60mph wind gusts.

[ronjon]

If something were to come out of 91L, I have to think it'll originate in the deep convection east of that LLC this a.m. that got quickly obliterated. I believe there is a weak mid level rotation but it would need time. I personally think that the GFS is a bit too fast on the primary vorticity reaching the Panhandle late Wednesday night. Clearly though, model support is meh... Can't even get our crazy uncle OR NAM to bite on development LOL

18z NAM 3km does develop and takes toward PCB with 60mph wind gusts.

12z WRF mesoscale model also develops it into a 999 mb storm.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=wrf-arw&region=seus&pkg=ref_frzn&runtime=2021090712&fh=9

[Dean4Storms]

00z HWRF develops today and brings a 1002mb weak TS into Walton County, between Destin and PCB, winds to 50mph.

[SEASON_CANCELED]

Salute!

We Panhandle folks are praying for the cold front and send the future Mindy over to Big Bend or even Tampa
Been saved by early fronts many times

Gums sends..

Uh well we in tampabay area don’t want 91L either. hopefully it’s just rain.

We dont need anymore rain either

fortunately this looks to be a nothingburger with extra nothing so far on the model runs

My septic tank is full of water because of the ground water.

[AlphaToOmega]

The HWRF takes Tropical Depression 13L to a 50.6-knot 1000.4-millibar tropical storm. The HWRF was the best model for the peak intensity of Hurricane Ida, which made landfall in a similar region of the world.

[Teban54]

So a while back I remember some models were showing development/redevelopment of then-91L off the East Coast, but the NHC discussion now says shear is supposed to increase to 30 kts by that time and would rip Mindy apart. Is that another case of sudden changes in shear forecasts, or did I remember things wrong?