ATL: MINDY - Models

[tolakram]

Two models show vorticity making it up to the Texas coast, while the GFS buries most of it as a week disturbance into Mexico. Something to keep an eye on for sure, but not a lot of support yet.

[HoustonFrog]

If I'm looking at right system, CMC 12z has it run into Galveston on Sept 9th. Although the CMC seems to flip flop every other run.

[aspen]

There's some support in the 12z CMC and ICON runs. Both get 91L into the BoC and also suggest the possibility of yet another WCar system next week. Looks like this'll be a hotspot throughout the rest of peak season.

[tolakram]

There's some support in the 12z CMC and ICON runs. Both get 91L into the BoC and also suggest the possibility of yet another WCar system next week. Looks like this'll be a hotspot throughout the rest of peak season.

Please be very careful making maps with names, you'll sometimes see these show up in other places. PLEASE DO NOT NAME STORMS until they are named.

[aspen]

There's some support in the 12z CMC and ICON runs. Both get 91L into the BoC and also suggest the possibility of yet another WCar system next week. Looks like this'll be a hotspot throughout the rest of peak season.

Please be very careful making maps with names, you'll sometimes see these show up in other places. PLEASE DO NOT NAME STORMS until they are named.

That’s why I refrained naming either of the disturbances in the ICON run, because it’s impossible to tell which one would be Mindy and which would be Nicholas. In the CMC scenario nothing else develops within 7 days except 91L, so it would be Mindy if that plays out. But I’ll refrain from naming disturbances in future posts.

[Teban54]

There's some support in the 12z CMC and ICON runs. Both get 91L into the BoC and also suggest the possibility of yet another WCar system next week. Looks like this'll be a hotspot throughout the rest of peak season.

Please be very careful making maps with names, you'll sometimes see these show up in other places. PLEASE DO NOT NAME STORMS until they are named.

That’s why I refrained naming either of the disturbances in the ICON run, because it’s impossible to tell which one would be Mindy and which would be Nicholas. In the CMC scenario nothing else develops within 7 days except 91L, so it would be Mindy if that plays out. But I’ll refrain from naming disturbances in future posts.

I think his point is more that some users and guests may later repost these maps to other websites and social media, and folks without any knowledge of meteorology will treat them as indications of a storm (e.g. "Mindy" in this case) forming. I could be wrong though.

Edit: Thinking about it, I would say having the same maps with "TS 91L" and "H 91L" instead of "TS Mindy" and "H Mindy" might be a good compromise. I do love these clear, well-made visuals a lot more than just plain text describing the model storms/vorticity and instructions to check Tropical Tidbits.

[tolakram]

Please be very careful making maps with names, you'll sometimes see these show up in other places. PLEASE DO NOT NAME STORMS until they are named.

That’s why I refrained naming either of the disturbances in the ICON run, because it’s impossible to tell which one would be Mindy and which would be Nicholas. In the CMC scenario nothing else develops within 7 days except 91L, so it would be Mindy if that plays out. But I’ll refrain from naming disturbances in future posts.

I think his point is more that some users and guests may later repost these maps to other websites and social media, and folks without any knowledge of meteorology will treat them as indications of a storm (e.g. "Mindy" in this case) forming. I could be wrong though.

Yea, it's a concern. Maps with names seem to be easily lifted and posted with us as a source. I'm going to take the maps down, feel free to repost with comments rather than edited images.

[hcane27]

I believe that taking them down is the best avenue to use. One of the worst processes to open and not be able to shut is that which gives those with a little bit of knowledge about very complex actions makimg them want to appear to have much more wisdom then they truly have.

[HoustonFrog]

I would say that having models where each storm is labeled is a huge help, especially when there's a few different invests or futures areas going on. But being labeled according to Storm2k labels is just fine/better.

[HoustonFrog]

GFS 18z now stirring something up around the 8th/9th near Galveston like the CMC

[HoustonFrog]

[IcyTundra]

CMC and GFS take a long time to develop anything it kind of just meanders in the Bay of Campeche for several days before doing anything. GFS doesn't close off a low until it's right off the coast while the CMC does it much earlier and is able to develop into a strong TS or even maybe a weak cat 1 briefly. The ensembles still aren't showing much for 91L yet so I'm not too worried, but I'll still keep an eye on it.

[Cpv17]

CMC and GFS take a long time to develop anything it kind of just meanders in the Bay of Campeche for several days before doing anything. GFS doesn't close off a low until it's right off the coast while the CMC does it much earlier and is able to develop into a strong TS or even maybe a weak cat 1 briefly. The ensembles still aren't showing much for 91L yet so I'm not too worried, but I'll still keep an eye on it.

Give me a weak storm. I need some rain!

[mpic]

GFS 18z now stirring something up around the 8th/9th near Galveston like the CMC

It figures because I only have one appointment this month and it's on the 10th.

[SohCahToa]

CMC and GFS take a long time to develop anything it kind of just meanders in the Bay of Campeche for several days before doing anything. GFS doesn't close off a low until it's right off the coast while the CMC does it much earlier and is able to develop into a strong TS or even maybe a weak cat 1 briefly. The ensembles still aren't showing much for 91L yet so I'm not too worried, but I'll still keep an eye on it.

Give me a weak storm. I need some rain!

Wait until my roof is repaired

[Clearcloudz]

18Z GEFS

[tolakram]

and suddenly the Euro now sees a small storm



The CMC, which saw this days ago, has shifted to the panhandle.



as has the GFS, but later, and with a sharp left turn right at landfall.



ICON only goes to 120 but now sees a low as well.

[IcyTundra]

12Z ICON has a closed low that drifts very slowly northward in the Gulf of Mexico



12Z GFS continues to show development goes north before it is pulled to the east by a trough.



12Z ECMWF

[IcyTundra]

91L GFS ensemble members.

[Kohlecane]

91L GFS ensemble members.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/91L_gefs_latest.png

I mean it's a good Median