WPAC: CONSON - Post-Tropical

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Hayabusa
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WPAC: CONSON - Post-Tropical

#1 Postby Hayabusa » Sat Sep 04, 2021 7:42 pm

95W.INVEST

95W.INVEST.15kts.1008mb.11N.131E

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Last edited by Hayabusa on Mon Sep 13, 2021 11:26 pm, edited 9 times in total.
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 95W

#2 Postby Hayabusa » Sat Sep 04, 2021 8:18 pm

The second system the Euro ensemble showed almost 3 days ago that competes with 94W.

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Re: WPAC: INVEST 95W

#3 Postby mrbagyo » Sun Sep 05, 2021 4:49 am

The Canadian also develops this system but stronger than 94W
Well, this one has more fuel at its disposal
Image

95W INVEST 210905 0600 11.3N 130.7E WPAC 15 1010
Image
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 95W

#4 Postby Hayabusa » Sun Sep 05, 2021 8:58 am

ABPW10 PGTW 051400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/051400Z-060600ZSEP2021//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 11.2N 131.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.0N 129.7E, APPROXIMATELY
367 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF LEGAZPI, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED EIR
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS PERSISTENT CONVECTION OBSUCRING A LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH LOW LEVEL CLOUD LINES WRAPPING
INTO THE CENTER. A 051148Z ASCAT PARTIAL PASS REVEALS 15-20 KT WINDS
ALONG THE OUTSKIRTS OF THE DEEP CONVECTION, AND MARGINAL WRAPPING OF
THE WINDS ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY. INVEST 95W IS IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, WARM (30C)
SST, AND LOW (<15KT) VWS. GLOBAL MODELS GENERALLY AGREE THAT INVEST
95W WILL UNDERGO MINIMAL, IF ANY, CONSOLIDATION AND INTENSIFICATION
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1010 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
MEDIUM.
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 95W

#5 Postby mrbagyo » Sun Sep 05, 2021 11:28 am

LOW PRESSURE AREA 1008 HPA NEAR 11N 133E ALMOST STATIONARY.
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 95W

#6 Postby Hayabusa » Sun Sep 05, 2021 3:30 pm

WWJP25 RJTD 051800
WARNING AND SUMMARY 051800.
WARNING VALID 061800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1008 HPA AT 10N 129E WEST SLOWLY.
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 95W

#7 Postby Hayabusa » Sun Sep 05, 2021 5:45 pm

Image
WTPN21 PGTW 052300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 95W)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
105 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 10.0N 128.9E TO 12.6N 125.8E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 090518Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 10.2N 128.5E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 11.0N 129.7E IS NOW LOCATED 10.2N 128.5E, APPROXIMATELY 327 NM
SOUTH EAST OF LEGAZPI, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS BROAD NOTCHED CONVECTION OBSCURING A LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION(LLC). A 051703Z ATMS 88.2GHZ IMAGE SHOWS A CURVED, DEEP
CONVECTIVE BAND TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE LLC. ANALYSIS REVEALS
A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, LOW
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND DUAL OUTFLOW CHANNELS. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN
GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH 95W OVERALL TRACK TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST WITH
GRADUAL DEVELOP AND INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 24-36HRS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
062300Z.
//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 95W

#8 Postby zzh » Sun Sep 05, 2021 8:05 pm

18W EIGHTEEN 210906 0000 10.5N 127.5E WPAC 30 1004
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 18W

#9 Postby Hayabusa » Sun Sep 05, 2021 8:27 pm

Image
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 18W

#10 Postby Sciencerocks » Sun Sep 05, 2021 9:25 pm

Image

This looks to be around 50 knots
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 18W

#11 Postby Hayabusa » Sun Sep 05, 2021 9:42 pm

Image
WDPN31 PGTW 060300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 18W (EIGHTEEN)
WARNING NR 001//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
INITIAL POSITION: 10.5N 127.5E
INITIAL INTENSITY: 30 KTS
GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 453 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MANILA,
PHILIPPINES
MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KTS
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 11 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS A
CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH PERSISTENT FLARING CONVECTION AND
FORMATIVE BANDS WRAPPING INTO AN OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
(LLC). THE INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE PLACED WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE BASED ON A 052126Z SCATTEROMETRY BULLSEYE PASS SHOWING
30-KT WIND BARBS ALONG THE SOUTHERN ARC OF THE LLC. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS HELD ON THE HIGHER END OF AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES.
ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH WARM
SST, LOW VWS, AND DUAL OUTFLOW OFFSET BY STRONG SUBSIDENCE FROM A
TUTT CELL 5 DEGREES TO THE NORTH. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR TO THE NORTHEAST.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: NOT APPLICABLE (THERE ARE NO INITIAL WIND
RADII).

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE
NORTHEAST.

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
PGTW: T1.5 - 25 KTS
RJTD: T1.0 - 25 KTS
KNES: T2.0 - 30 KTS

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
VWS: 0-5 KTS
SST: 30-31 CELSIUS
OUTFLOW: MODERATE POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
INITIAL WIND RADII: NOT APPLICABLE

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THIS INITIAL PROGNOSTIC REASONING
MESSAGE ESTABLISHES THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TD 18W IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE GENERALLY ON
ITS CURRENT TRACK FOR THE ENTIRETY OF THE FORECAST, MAKING LANDFALL
NEAR BALER, PHILIPPINES AROUND TAU 84, CROSS LUZON, THEN EXIT INTO
THE SOUTH CHINA SEA (SCS) JUST BEFORE TAU 96. THE MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, TEMPERED FURTHER BY OUTFLOW FROM ANOTHER
CYCLONE WEST OF GUAM THAT IS EXPECTED TO BE DOMINANT, WILL FUEL
WEAK INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK OF 45KTS BY TAU 72; AFTERWARD, LAND
INTERACTION, MOSTLY, WILL REDUCE IT TO 40 KTS AS IT EXITS INTO THE
SCS. THE WARM WATER MAY AID TO RE-INTENSIFY IT BACK TO 45 KTS BY TAU
120.

MODEL DISCUSSION: THE HANDFUL OF AVAILABLE NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT BUT GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES ASSOCIATED WITH A
DEVELOPING CYCLONE COUPLED WITH THE VARIABILITY IN THE IMPACT OF
THE AFOREMENTIONED SECONDARY CYCLONE, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN
THE INITIAL JTWC FORECAST TRACK AND INTENSITIES.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
TRACK 0 - 72 HR: LOW
TRACK 72-120 HR: LOW
INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: LOW
INTENSITY 72-120 HR: LOW//
NNNN
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ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
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GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 18W

#12 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Sep 05, 2021 10:27 pm

Image

Welp guess we have a moderate tropical storm. Hopefully an agency will notice.
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 18W

#13 Postby mrbagyo » Sun Sep 05, 2021 10:29 pm

look like it's not gaining latitude - landfall in Samar cannot be ruled out
Image
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 18W

#14 Postby dexterlabio » Sun Sep 05, 2021 11:16 pm

mrbagyo wrote:look like it's not gaining latitude - landfall in Samar cannot be ruled out
https://i.imgur.com/o8fBebb.gif


Sure looks like it, and definitely not just a tropical depression.

I think the models kinda dropped the ball with this, for whatever reason that is, but I suspect it's the close proximity of 2 circulations (18W and future 19W). Models tend to not resolve that properly.
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 18W

#15 Postby dexterlabio » Sun Sep 05, 2021 11:20 pm

Just as I expected, GFS comes up with a brand new solution, with 18W being the dominant storm and 94W getting sucked into the stronger circulation of the former.
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 18W

#16 Postby mrbagyo » Sun Sep 05, 2021 11:26 pm

somebody wakeup people of JMA and PAGASA - this is not a 30 knot TD
Image

Image
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 18W

#17 Postby mrbagyo » Mon Sep 06, 2021 1:06 am

HWRF likes 18W
Image

Image
Last edited by mrbagyo on Mon Sep 06, 2021 1:13 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 18W

#18 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Sep 06, 2021 1:08 am

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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 18W

#19 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Sep 06, 2021 1:54 am

TXPQ21 KNES 060610
TCSWNP

A. 18W (NONAME)

B. 06/0530Z

C. 10.7N

D. 126.9E

E. THREE/HIMAWARI-8

F. T3.5/3.5

G. IR/EIR/VIS/AMSR2

H. REMARKS...THIS INTENSITY ESTIMATE WAS DERIVED USING 4 KM IR
DATA. 10/10 BANDING AROUND THE LLCC YIELDS A DT OF 3.5. MET WAS SET TO
1.5 AND PT IS 2.0. FT IS BASED ON THE 6 HOUR AVERAGE DT OF 3.5 WHICH
ALLOWS FOR THE BREAKING OF CONSTRAINTS.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

06/0444Z 10.7N 127.0E AMSR2


...TUGGLE
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 18W

#20 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Sep 06, 2021 2:02 am

TPPN10 PGTW 060615

A. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 18W (E OF PHILIPPINES)

B. 06/0540Z

C. 10.74N

D. 126.94E

E. THREE/HMWRI8

F. T2.5/2.5 STT: S0.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 15A/PBO TIGHTLY CURVED BNDG/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .55
ON LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDING A DT OF 2.5. MET AND PT AGREE. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


HEINS
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