WPAC: CONSON - Post-Tropical

[mrbagyo]

[Hayabusa]

Just as I expected, GFS comes up with a brand new solution, with 18W being the dominant storm and 94W getting sucked into the stronger circulation of the former.

Euro still shows 19W becoming a strong system but let's wait and see, 19W could well be another Atsani type situation.

[mrbagyo]

Himawari-8 has finally shifted its rapid scan sector target area to TS Conson / Jolina.
It's building a legit CDO

[Hayabusa]

Latest warning, becoming a typhoon after the 1st landfall

[Kingarabian]

WPAC waking up?

[mrbagyo]

[Hayabusa]

Just for info purposes, look at that multiple maximum 225 knots potential on the Philippines

[mrbagyo]

06z HWRF run has totally gone Rammasun Part 2

[mrbagyo]

[mrbagyo]

Euro simulated IR

[Yellow Evan]

TXPQ21 KNES 061210
TCSWNP

A. 18W (CONSON)

B. 06/1130Z

C. 11.3N

D. 126.0E

E. THREE/HIMAWARI-8

F. T3.5/3.5

G. IR/EIR/SWIR/GMI

H. REMARKS...SYSTEM HAS 8/10 BANDING RESULTING IN A DT OF 3.5. BANDING
FEATURE HAS BEEN ROBUST ON THE SE AND E SIDE OF SYSTEM LLCC. ADDITIONALLY<
THE DEEP CONVECTION IS WRAPPING AROUND THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE LLCC
INDICATING FURTHER ORGANIZATION AND DEVELOPMENT. THE 24 HR TREND IS
DEVELOPING RAPIDLY RESULTING MET TO BE 2.5 AND PT TO BE 3.0. FT IS BASED
ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

06/0855Z 11.1N 126.5E GMI


...PATEL

Probably a hurricane tbh.

[doomhaMwx]

 https://twitter.com/dost_pagasa/status/1434882521464930306




Making landfall now over the southern part of Samar, which is way south than initially exepected. PAGASA upgraded it to a typhoon at 12Z, supported by numerous ≥50kt flags on ASCAT. Moreover, PAGASA station @ Guiuan had 991.6mb SLP and 62kt wind speed (60m elev) @ 13Z.

[mrbagyo]

Landfall!

 https://twitter.com/dost_pagasa/status/1434886270665121793

[dexterlabio]

Based on PAGASA advisories, this storm went from a 45kph/25kts tropical depression to 120kph/63kts typhoon in less than a day.

[mrbagyo]

PAGASA imo is super late with their advisories especially for the people of Southeastern Samar - but at least they classified it as a typhoon unlike the other two agencies


The poster of the video has no idea that Signal number 3 is already hoisted in her locality.
https://www.facebook.com/pie.thought/videos/583876869294069/

[mrbagyo]

 https://twitter.com/squirtleinhk/status/1434898364735184902

[Hayabusa]

Upgraded to 60 kt

18W CONSON 210906 1800 11.5N 124.9E WPAC 60 991

[ElectricStorm]

Personally I think this was a Cat 1 typhoon at landfall and may be a good candidate for a post-season upgrade. Might make a run for Cat 1 again in the SCS

[aspen]

Just for info purposes, look at that multiple maximum 225 knots potential on the Philippines
https://i.imgur.com/Kuy5Qu0.gif

That’s not comforting since Nina years often have a big storm in Sept/Oct/Nov near the Philippines (Zeb ‘98, Megi ‘10, Goni ‘20, etc). However, this season has been significantly less active than 2020 in terms of typhoons and MH-intensity systems, so perhaps they’ll get lucky and Surigae won’t have a later-season twin.

[doomhaMwx]

Looks like it's back over waters west of Samar. With the storm remaining pretty coherent after passing over land and as seen in previous TCs passing through here, some additional intensification is not far-fetched as it slowly approaches Bicol Region today.




JTWC forecast has continued to nudge west/southward and is currently the most south among the agency forecasts, with passage south of Manila by tomorrow while the rest have it to the north (it should be noted though that JTWC analyzed the TC position more south than the rest).