EPAC: OLAF - Post-Tropical

[Subtrop]

EP, 96, 2021090518, , BEST, 0, 146N, 1028W, 20, 1009, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 120, 60, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 020, SPAWNINVEST, ep722021 to ep962021,

https://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/btk/

[Yellow Evan]

18z GFS builds a nice ULAC over it.

[Kingarabian]

Let's see if this succumbs to unmodeled N/NE/E shear that a lot of systems so far have done within this general area.

[zzh]

A low pressure system located more than 200 miles southwest of
Acapulco, Mexico, is gradually becoming better defined.
Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual
development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to
form during the next couple of days while it moves
west-northwestward or northwestward at 5 to 10 mph, just offshore
the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

[Yellow Evan]

Let's see if this succumbs to unmodeled N/NE/E shear that a lot of systems so far have done within this general area.

I’ll look more closely when I get home but this seems to have four days over warm waters and ECMWF has trended more aggressive with it. Seems like a good hurricane candidate to mr but nothing more.

[Yellow Evan]

* GFS version *
* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP962021 09/05/21 18 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 21 23 26 32 42 55 68 75 78 78 74 65 59 54 48
V (KT) LAND 20 21 21 23 26 32 42 55 68 75 78 78 74 65 59 54 48
V (KT) LGEM 20 20 20 21 21 23 27 32 38 43 47 47 43 36 30 25 21
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SUBT

SHEAR (KT) 13 10 11 10 8 5 7 9 12 11 7 10 9 20 22 22 18
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 0 -3 0 -1 -4 -3 -2 -2 2 2 0 0 0 -2 1
SHEAR DIR 52 60 52 36 23 351 307 306 285 272 246 179 152 160 170 183 218
SST (C) 28.3 28.5 28.7 28.8 28.9 29.1 29.2 29.5 29.6 29.1 28.0 24.9 23.5 21.7 21.4 21.0 20.8
POT. INT. (KT) 146 148 150 151 151 153 154 158 161 157 146 114 100 80 76 71 67
200 MB T (C) -53.2 -52.9 -53.2 -53.5 -53.3 -53.4 -53.1 -52.8 -52.4 -52.4 -52.1 -51.9 -51.6 -51.2 -51.6 -51.7 -51.5
200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.2 0.9 0.8
TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 5 6 6 7 7 8 6 6 3 1 0 0 0 0
700-500 MB RH 78 79 79 81 80 80 76 72 70 66 60 54 53 49 48 42 38
MODEL VTX (KT) 7 6 6 7 9 10 13 17 21 23 24 25 23 21 20 19 18
850 MB ENV VOR 18 28 27 25 25 50 42 62 60 72 63 46 28 12 17 0 0
200 MB DIV 14 36 61 56 47 89 69 63 44 20 18 3 -17 -16 3 6 14
700-850 TADV -2 0 -1 0 0 0 0 -1 0 -1 -1 2 2 6 1 11 -4
LAND (KM) 356 339 302 267 236 207 157 118 140 201 142 236 378 608 830 974 1090
LAT (DEG N) 14.6 15.0 15.5 16.0 16.5 17.2 17.9 18.8 20.1 21.4 22.7 24.1 25.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x
LONG(DEG W) 102.8 103.4 103.9 104.2 104.5 105.0 105.3 105.9 107.0 108.9 111.5 114.5 117.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x
STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 6 6 5 4 4 7 10 12 15 17 16 15 12 9 6
HEAT CONTENT 12 15 17 18 19 19 20 21 23 19 11 0 0 0 0 0 0

FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 4
T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 556 (MEAN=587)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.3 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 28.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.0

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4.
SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -0. 0. 5. 12. 20. 27. 32. 36. 38. 38. 37. 35. 33. 30.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 4. 3. 3. 3. 4. 2. -1. -5. -8.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 2. 3. 4.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -3. -4. -6. -8.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 12. 20. 23. 24. 23. 19. 14. 12. 10. 8.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1.
ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5.
GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. -9. -8. -8.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2.
RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 3. 6. 12. 22. 35. 48. 55. 58. 58. 54. 45. 40. 34. 28.

CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 14.6 102.8

** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP962021 INVEST 09/05/21 18 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)

Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 129.3 40.5 to 149.3 0.82 999.0
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0
D200 (10**7s-1) : 42.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.39 999.0
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.6 19.6 to 1.3 0.49 999.0
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.55 999.0
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 18.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.89 999.0
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 16.2 2.7 to 106.7 0.13 999.0
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.2 to -2.3 0.35 999.0

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%)

Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic: 0.4% 4.6% 1.5% 0.7% 0.2% 8.4% 10.0% 6.4%
Bayesian: 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Consensus: 0.1% 1.6% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 2.8% 3.3% 2.1%
DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0%

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP962021 INVEST 09/05/21 18 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##

[Sciencerocks]

[Yellow Evan]

GFS version *
* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP962021 09/06/21 00 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 31 35 39 48 57 69 78 80 80 72 63 53 48 43 37
V (KT) LAND 25 27 31 35 39 48 57 69 78 80 80 72 63 53 48 43 37
V (KT) LGEM 25 27 29 31 33 39 46 54 61 65 64 55 44 34 27 22 18
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SUBT

SHEAR (KT) 10 13 11 5 3 3 7 8 10 12 10 19 23 21 16 12 15
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 -3 -1 -3 0 -5 -2 -5 0 2 -1 2 1 1 0 4
SHEAR DIR 46 35 27 12 283 291 297 285 273 230 180 165 157 164 166 201 245
SST (C) 28.8 28.8 29.0 29.1 29.2 29.4 29.5 29.1 28.4 28.2 25.3 24.7 22.7 21.1 20.9 20.3 20.2
POT. INT. (KT) 152 152 153 154 155 156 158 155 148 147 118 112 90 73 70 62 59
200 MB T (C) -52.8 -53.0 -53.3 -53.2 -52.9 -53.5 -52.4 -52.6 -52.2 -52.3 -51.8 -52.0 -51.4 -51.7 -51.7 -51.7 -51.7
200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.6 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.8
TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 6 7 7 5 7 6 7 4 4 2 0 0 0 0 0
700-500 MB RH 77 78 79 77 76 74 70 67 66 65 59 57 52 50 45 39 36
MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 7 8 10 13 15 20 24 25 27 25 22 20 19 18 16
850 MB ENV VOR 30 36 34 31 43 36 49 62 79 76 65 37 19 18 5 -10 -10
200 MB DIV 23 47 57 68 91 68 69 40 42 13 19 -16 -7 -24 -13 0 15
700-850 TADV 0 -2 -1 0 0 -1 0 0 0 2 4 -2 2 -2 -1 -1 -1
LAND (KM) 263 227 198 191 177 160 172 227 269 182 251 393 499 703 819 838 861
LAT (DEG N) 15.7 16.3 16.9 17.3 17.7 18.3 18.9 19.6 20.6 21.7 23.0 24.4 25.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x
LONG(DEG W) 103.4 104.0 104.5 104.9 105.3 106.0 106.6 107.7 109.2 111.2 113.8 116.7 119.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x
STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 7 6 5 4 5 8 9 13 14 15 14 12 9 5 3
HEAT CONTENT 17 18 19 19 19 21 22 23 14 22 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 9 CX,CY: -6/ 6
T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 550 (MEAN=587)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.5 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 32.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 24.4

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4.
SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. 1. 5. 12. 19. 25. 29. 32. 33. 32. 30. 27. 24. 21.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 4. 2. 0. -2. -4. -6. -8.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1.
PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -10.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 9. 17. 25. 26. 28. 24. 18. 14. 12. 10. 8.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0.
200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4.
GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -8. -7. -7.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3.
RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 2. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 2. 6. 10. 14. 23. 32. 44. 53. 55. 55. 47. 38. 28. 23. 18. 12.

CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 15.7 103.4

** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP962021 INVEST 09/06/21 00 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)

Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 128.1 40.5 to 149.3 0.81 6.1
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.5
D200 (10**7s-1) : 57.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.47 3.3
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.3 19.6 to 1.3 0.62 4.2
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.57 2.7
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 42.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.86 -4.5
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 18.4 2.7 to 106.7 0.15 0.6
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.5
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.51 0.4

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 1.7 times climatological mean (12.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 8.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 6.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 5.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%)

Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 21.1% 18.1% 0.0% 0.0% 18.9% 17.2% 0.0%
Logistic: 1.5% 16.1% 7.7% 4.6% 1.8% 32.1% 20.0% 5.6%
Bayesian: 0.0% 1.2% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.2%
Consensus: 0.5% 12.8% 8.7% 1.5% 0.6% 17.0% 12.5% 1.9%
DTOPS: 0.0% 4.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 4.0% 22.0%

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP962021 INVEST 09/06/21 00 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##

[Yellow Evan]

Satellite-derived wind data indicate that a low pressure system
located a couple of hundred miles south-southeast of Manzanillo,
Mexico is still somewhat elongated, and the system is only producing
limited shower activity at this time. Environmental conditions
appear conducive for gradual development of this system during the
next couple of days, and a tropical depression is likely to form
while it moves west-northwestward or northwestward at 5 to 10 mph,
just offshore the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

[Yellow Evan]

0z ECMWF trends in weaker.

[Yellow Evan]

WTPN21 PHNC 060630
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 96E)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 15.9N 103.9W TO 18.3N 106.6W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 060600Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 16.2N 104.4W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 11
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96E) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
16.2N 104.4W, APPROXIMATELY 166 NM SOUTH OF MANZANILLO, MEXICO.
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A SMALL
POCKET OF CONVECTION OVER A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). A
060124 SSMIS 91GHZ SATELLITE IMAGE DEPICTS AN OVERALL LACK OF
CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM. INVEST 96E IS IN A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT CHARACTERIZED BY EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW ALOFT, LOW (<15 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), AND WARM (29-
30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST). GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 96E WILL CONSOLIDATE AND STRENGTHEN AS IT
PROPAGATES NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT 48-72 HOURS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
070630Z.//
NNNN

[Kingarabian]

SHIPS showing 10-13kts of shear for the next 24 hours. So I'm guessing this will initially struggle again. SHIPS does show the shear becoming more favorable but by that time continental dry air off of Mexico could keep a lid on it before it hits unfavorable shear once more.

[Yellow Evan]

It’s small size should shield it from dry air though and dry air issues overall are seldom a problem late season. With that said, we’re in a suppressed CCKW and MJO phase so it’s a bit odd this is even forming in the first place. Best case scenario is probably a Paine 16 redux.

[Yellow Evan]

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms within a couple of hundred
miles of the coast of southwestern Mexico are associated with an
elongated area of low pressure. Environmental conditions appear
conducive for gradual development of this system during the next few
days, and a tropical depression is likely to form by midweek while
it moves west-northwestward or northwestward at 5 to 10 mph, just
offshore the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

[Yellow Evan]

6z GFS brings the remnant circulation onshore near San Francisco.

[Sciencerocks]

[Yellow Evan]

Showers and thunderstorms have become a little better organized
this morning in association with an elongated area of low pressure
located a couple of hundred miles southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico.
Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development of
this system during the next few days, and a tropical depression is
likely to form by midweek while it moves west-northwestward or
northwestward at 5 to 10 mph, just offshore of the coast of
Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

[Yellow Evan]

I think the ECMWF probably has the upper hand here by default given the intraseasonal suppressed state. Main difference between the two seems to simply be the rate of intensification, which tbf it does seem to be somewhat organizing.

[Yellow Evan]

TXPZ26 KNES 061806
TCSENP

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (96E)

B. 06/1730Z

C. 17.1N

D. 106.1W

E. FIVE/GOES-E

F. T1.0/1.0

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...SYSTEM HAS GREATER THAN 2/10 BANDING RESULTING IN
A DT OF 1.0. THE 1534Z ASCAT PASS HAS FOUND A LOOSE AND SLIGHTLY
ELONGATED CIRCULATION THAT IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. THE 24 HR TREND IS DEVELOPING. MET AND PT ARE 1.0. FT IS BASED
ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...PATEL

[Yellow Evan]

Convection near MLC fading but clear evidence of consolidation downshear.