EPAC: OLAF - Post-Tropical

[aspen]

I mean...
https://i.imgur.com/NMFQ3Ge.png

Cat 4

Too ragged, but maybe could be making a run for Cat 3 status. We’ll see what Josh finds in the eyewall, although it could take a while for him to post it because he still hasn’t posted his findings from Grace’s Veracruz landfall.

[Yellow Evan]

Instantaneous DT is now T5.5 with a full B ring assuming embedded in MG. Due to the ragged eye and wing lag, probably not as strong yet and definitely not yet a Category 4 as suggested.

[Kingarabian]

I mean...
https://i.imgur.com/NMFQ3Ge.png

Cat 4

No way a cat.4. Eye needs to be warmer and much more circular. Also it's very dry to the east.

[ElectricStorm]

Nowhere near Cat 4

15E OLAF 210910 0000 22.7N 109.3W EPAC 80 977

[grapealcoholic]

[Yellow Evan]

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 10 SEP 2021 Time : 002031 UTC
Lat : 22:33:55 N Lon : 109:17:07 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.9 / 965.4mb/ 87.4kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.9 5.4 5.4

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :N/A km

Center Temp : -32.8C Cloud Region Temp : -64.5C

Scene Type : EYE

[Sciencerocks]

Nowhere near Cat 4

15E OLAF 210910 0000 22.7N 109.3W EPAC 80 977

I'd go at least 90 knots. Anything less is -------.

[Yellow Evan]

TXPZ26 KNES 100031
TCSENP

A. 15E (OLAF)

B. 09/2330Z

C. 22.5N

D. 109.0W

E. ONE/GOES-W

F. T4.5/4.5

G. IR/EIR/VIS/AMSR2

H. REMARKS...AN EYE THAT IS EMBEDDED WITHIN DG RESULTS IN AN ENO OF
4.5. AN OW EYE SURROUNDED BY MG RESULTS IN AN EADJ OF 0.0. THE RESULTING
DT IS 4.5. THE MET IS 4.0 BASED ON A RAPIDLY DEVELOPING TREND OVER THE
PAST 24 HOURS. THE PT IS 4.0 AS WELL. THE FT IS BASED ON THE DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

09/2008Z 22.2N 108.8W AMSR2


...HOSLEY

[ElectricStorm]

Nowhere near Cat 4

15E OLAF 210910 0000 22.7N 109.3W EPAC 80 977

I'd go at least 90 knots. Anything less is -------.

Yeah I agree it's probably a Cat 2 at this point, but certainly not a 4

[Kingarabian]

It's going to be a major hurricane IMO. The issue is there won't be enough advisory cycles to get that official number without Recon. Will rely on ground obs from Josh and other weather stations for an off season upgrade.

[Kingarabian]

Going off as it nears landfall which won't be for another 5-6 hours. White pixels over the B ring:

[grapealcoholic]

Why did the professionals rate it at 4.5 lol

[Yellow Evan]

Why did the professionals rate it at 4.5 lol

Because the cloud tops that fully surrounded the eye were much warmer at the time of the Dvorak fix compared to now.

[Kingarabian]

Why did the professionals rate it at 4.5 lol

Because they go by individual frame most of the time. Also the CDO was mainly covered in DG and some MG which is -30C to -50C tops. Need it colder about -55C to -63C to meet the LG requirement at the time they issued the fix.

[Yellow Evan]

 https://twitter.com/icyclone/status/1436139289033596930

[Kingarabian]

Current Intensity Analysis





UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 9.0
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 10 SEP 2021 Time : 005031 UTC
Lat : 22:53:23 N Lon : 109:14:23 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.0 / 963.2mb/ 90.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.0 5.4 5.4

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 17 km

Center Temp : -8.0C Cloud Region Temp : -61.5C

Scene Type : EYE

Subtropical Adjustment : OFF

Extratropical Adjustment : OFF

Positioning Method : ARCHER POSITIONING

Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : CKZ Method

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 72nmi
- Environmental MSLP : 1008mb

Satellite Name : GOES17
Satellite Viewing Angle : 41.2 degrees

Eye will be cooling from here since it's reaching land. Going to be tough to get a Cat.3 off Dvorak, there's pretty much no time.

[grapealcoholic]

[floridasun78]

their was live cam in area but want offline

[grapealcoholic]

What's that saying "I'd rather be in a weakening Cat 4 than a strengthening Cat 2"

[sikkar]

May landfall east of the official track.