ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
AlphaToOmega
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1448
Joined: Sat Jun 26, 2021 10:51 am
Location: Somewhere in Massachusetts

Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion

#41 Postby AlphaToOmega » Sat Sep 11, 2021 6:40 pm

Showers and thunderstorms remain poorly organized in association
with a tropical wave located near the Cabo Verde Islands.
Environmental conditions are currently conducive for development,
and a tropical depression could still form this weekend or early
next week while the system moves westward over the far eastern
Atlantic. By the middle of next week, stronger upper-level winds and
marginally warm ocean temperatures are expected to limit additional
development. Regardless of development, this disturbance is likely
to bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain across the Cabo Verde
Islands tonight.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.
0 likes   

AlphaToOmega
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1448
Joined: Sat Jun 26, 2021 10:51 am
Location: Somewhere in Massachusetts

Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion

#42 Postby AlphaToOmega » Sat Sep 11, 2021 6:43 pm

Surprised to see them decrease the chances given the enthused ensembles
If this does not develop, I might lose all faith in ensembles
1 likes   

User avatar
Hammy
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5594
Age: 40
Joined: Fri May 25, 2012 5:25 pm
Contact:

Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion

#43 Postby Hammy » Sat Sep 11, 2021 9:43 pm

AlphaToOmega wrote:Surprised to see them decrease the chances given the enthused ensembles
If this does not develop, I might lose all faith in ensembles


I generally ignore them for non-developed systems as far as individual systems--they're better as track predictors and predicting overall conditions.

This is already headed into cooler waters and less favorable upper air conditions, I don't see it developing at this point as the most favorable conditions are already behind it.
0 likes   
The above post is not official and should not be used as such. It is the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is not endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Sciencerocks
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 7281
Age: 38
Joined: Thu Jul 06, 2017 1:51 am

Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion

#44 Postby Sciencerocks » Sat Sep 11, 2021 11:11 pm

Image
0 likes   

Sciencerocks
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 7281
Age: 38
Joined: Thu Jul 06, 2017 1:51 am

Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion

#45 Postby Sciencerocks » Sun Sep 12, 2021 1:38 am

Image
0 likes   

User avatar
Teban54
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1913
Joined: Sat May 19, 2018 1:19 pm

Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion

#46 Postby Teban54 » Sun Sep 12, 2021 1:53 am

Down to 30/30 despite a deep convective burst.

Looks like either it finds better conditions down the road (no models show this right now), or it ends up as nothing but a sacrificial wave that creates better conditions for the wave behind.
1 likes   

AlphaToOmega
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1448
Joined: Sat Jun 26, 2021 10:51 am
Location: Somewhere in Massachusetts

Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion

#47 Postby AlphaToOmega » Sun Sep 12, 2021 4:22 am

I guess the ensembles scammed us with development
3 likes   

AlphaToOmega
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1448
Joined: Sat Jun 26, 2021 10:51 am
Location: Somewhere in Massachusetts

Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion

#48 Postby AlphaToOmega » Sun Sep 12, 2021 4:38 am

Teban54 wrote:Down to 30/30 despite a deep convective burst.

Looks like either it finds better conditions down the road (no models show this right now), or it ends up as nothing but a sacrificial wave that creates better conditions for the wave behind.


Extremely surprising given it was given a 70% chance of development
Embarrassment for the ensembles, I must say
2 likes   

Sciencerocks
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 7281
Age: 38
Joined: Thu Jul 06, 2017 1:51 am

Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion

#49 Postby Sciencerocks » Sun Sep 12, 2021 12:00 pm

Image
1 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138895
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion

#50 Postby cycloneye » Sun Sep 12, 2021 12:36 pm

Bye.

Shower activity associated with a tropical wave located just
west of the westernmost Cabo Verde Islands has diminished since
this morning. Environmental conditions have become unfavorable,
and significant development of this system is no longer expected.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent.
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

AlphaToOmega
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1448
Joined: Sat Jun 26, 2021 10:51 am
Location: Somewhere in Massachusetts

Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion

#51 Postby AlphaToOmega » Sun Sep 12, 2021 2:56 pm

cycloneye wrote:Bye.

Shower activity associated with a tropical wave located just
west of the westernmost Cabo Verde Islands has diminished since
this morning. Environmental conditions have become unfavorable,
and significant development of this system is no longer expected.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent.


A system that had tremendous model support, one that the NHC expected to develop, failed to the develop?
Why are our models so terrible? Why are our ensembles so terrible?
0 likes   

User avatar
Hammy
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5594
Age: 40
Joined: Fri May 25, 2012 5:25 pm
Contact:

Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion

#52 Postby Hammy » Sun Sep 12, 2021 4:12 pm

AlphaToOmega wrote:
Teban54 wrote:Down to 30/30 despite a deep convective burst.

Looks like either it finds better conditions down the road (no models show this right now), or it ends up as nothing but a sacrificial wave that creates better conditions for the wave behind.


Extremely surprising given it was given a 70% chance of development
Embarrassment for the ensembles, I must say


Usually any time they're showing a NW turn off of Africa, going through (or north of) CV in that direction, it's going to bust. Rene last year was really an exception to this since literally everything formed last year.
1 likes   
The above post is not official and should not be used as such. It is the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is not endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

AxaltaRacing24
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1709
Age: 23
Joined: Wed Jul 27, 2016 11:14 am
Location: Jupiter, FL

Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion

#53 Postby AxaltaRacing24 » Sun Sep 12, 2021 4:50 pm

AlphaToOmega wrote:
cycloneye wrote:Bye.

Shower activity associated with a tropical wave located just
west of the westernmost Cabo Verde Islands has diminished since
this morning. Environmental conditions have become unfavorable,
and significant development of this system is no longer expected.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent.


A system that had tremendous model support, one that the NHC expected to develop, failed to the develop?
Why are our models so terrible? Why are our ensembles so terrible?

The models like to do that until a wave hits the water. We've been played like 100+ times since 2017 with this stuff.
0 likes   

User avatar
aspen
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 8030
Joined: Sat Oct 12, 2019 7:10 pm
Location: Connecticut, USA

Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion

#54 Postby aspen » Sun Sep 12, 2021 5:05 pm

AxaltaRacing24 wrote:
AlphaToOmega wrote:
cycloneye wrote:Bye.

Shower activity associated with a tropical wave located just
west of the westernmost Cabo Verde Islands has diminished since
this morning. Environmental conditions have become unfavorable,
and significant development of this system is no longer expected.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent.


A system that had tremendous model support, one that the NHC expected to develop, failed to the develop?
Why are our models so terrible? Why are our ensembles so terrible?

The models like to do that until a wave hits the water. We've been played like 100+ times since 2017 with this stuff.

It’s not like any of the models showed this become a strong system. At most, they showed a weak TS. 93L did try, but the future did not look great for it and it ultimately failed. I think there was a wave ahead of Larry’s precursor that emerged at a higher latitude but also failed despite modest model support.
0 likes   
Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 5/15/2018 Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20 Elsa '21 Henri '21 Ida '21

I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.


Return to “2021”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 16 guests