ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion

[AlphaToOmega]

It seems the models are not too impressed with this though. Poor conditions ahead?

Ensembles are still impressed

https://i.imgur.com/9TkJh0u.png
I know this is the discussion, but it seems that yes ensembles do support but it looks like AOI below 93L is getting the majority of support, then again I could be mistaken.

Ensembles also support Invest 93L itself.

[Kohlecane]

It seems the models are not too impressed with this though. Poor conditions ahead?

Ensembles are still impressed

I know this is the 93L discussion, but it seems that yes! ensembles do like support, but it looks like AOI below 93L future 95L just south (unless that SE coast AOI pops up sooner) is getting the majority of support, then again I could be mistaken.

EDIT: sorry duplicate post tried to delete old but has been replied/quoted already, just putting up image*

[AlphaToOmega]

The models still all show closed lows. This is likely to develop into a weak 40-knot tropical storm.

[aspen]

Seems like all models agree on a westward track instead of an early recurve. Assuming 93L can survive the tough road ahead (SHIPS has 20-25 kt of shear in the 4-6 day range), we might have to worry about this developing closer to the Caribbean and CONUS.

[cycloneye]

A tropical wave continues to produce a concentrated area of showers
and thunderstorms just southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands.
Environmental conditions appear generally conducive for gradual
development, and a tropical depression is likely to form late this
weekend or early next week while the system moves westward over the
far eastern Atlantic. Regardless of development, this system is
likely to bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain across the Cabo
Verde Islands later today and tonight.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

[Sciencerocks]

[ouragans]

Invest 93L
As of 12:00 UTC Sep 11, 2021:

Location: 14.2°N 21.1°W
Maximum Winds: 25 kt Gusts: N/A
Minimum Central Pressure: 1010 mb
Environmental Pressure: N/A
Radius of Circulation: N/A
Radius of Maximum wind: 60 nm

[CyclonicFury]

The models still all show closed lows. This is likely to develop into a weak 40-knot tropical storm.

A closed circulation on the model does not always indicate a TC. Organized deep convection is another requirement for classification. With the expected marginal SSTs and dry mid level environment, this one may struggle to produce consistent deep convection.

[AlphaToOmega]

I would surprise me if it does not become at least a tropical storm. The NHC and ensembles are enthused by this system. I have seen many systems, namely Kate, Julian, and Mindy, become tropical cyclones with little operational global model support.

[LarryWx]

I would surprise me if it does not become at least a tropical storm. The NHC and ensembles are enthused by this system. I have seen many systems, namely Kate, Julian, and Mindy, become tropical cyclones with little operational global model support.

Most of the non-GFS models have not done well with this so far. The Euro and UKMET have been downright awful. Keeping this in mind, there’s no telling what it may end up doing. They now MAY be downplaying this. SSTs are warm enough to support a TC. And depending on how it does or doesn’t progress developmentwise, dry air may not be enough to prevent a formidable TC within a few days. Shear doesn’t appear to be prohibitively too high even if it isn’t light right now. There seems to be a decent LLC. We’re at the peak in La Niña. I wouldn’t downplay what this MAY do at this point, especially as it reaches warmer SSTs. And this may have a big influence on the next AEW that the Euro is going crazy over.

[TallyTracker]

SSTs are more than adequate for the next couple of days and shouldn’t impede development. Dry air is gonna be the bigger issue. If it moves north of the Cabo Verde’s, then SSTs become an issue. The OHC is low in this area, but that only matters for stronger storms.

[Teban54]

Am I even looking at the same storm as you guys? 93L is able to produce persistent convection since last night, despite not very cold cloud tops. Should be enough for at least a weak TD/TS if this continues IMO.

[Sciencerocks]

[cycloneye]

Showers and thunderstorms have not become any better organized in
association with a tropical wave located just southeast of the Cabo
Verde Islands. Environmental conditions appear generally conducive
for gradual development, and a tropical depression is likely to form
late this weekend or early next week while the system moves westward
over the far eastern Atlantic. Regardless of development, this
disturbance is likely to bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain
across the Cabo Verde Islands later today and tonight.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

[ElectricStorm]

As of right now I think we might see a TD/weak TS out of this but not much more. If it says weak and makes it further west, we may have to watch out for it down the line.

[aspen]

It doesn’t look bad now, but nothing really develops this anymore. Could end up as a sleeper wave or a weak system that struggles until it gets further west…or it’ll be a Vicky/Wilfred repeat.

[Sciencerocks]

[hipshot]

I would surprise me if it does not become at least a tropical storm. The NHC and ensembles are enthused by this system. I have seen many systems, namely Kate, Julian, and Mindy, become tropical cyclones with little operational global model support.

Most of the non-GFS models have not done well with this so far. The Euro and UKMET have been downright awful. Keeping this in mind, there’s no telling what it may end up doing. They now MAY be downplaying this. SSTs are warm enough to support a TC. And depending on how it does or doesn’t progress developmentwise, dry air may not be enough to prevent a formidable TC within a few days. Shear doesn’t appear to be prohibitively too high even if it isn’t light right now. There seems to be a decent LLC. We’re at the peak in La Niña. I wouldn’t downplay what this MAY do at this point, especially as it reaches warmer SSTs. And this may have a big influence on the next AEW that the Euro is going crazy over.

What is an "AEW"? African ?? Wave?

[AlphaToOmega]

I would surprise me if it does not become at least a tropical storm. The NHC and ensembles are enthused by this system. I have seen many systems, namely Kate, Julian, and Mindy, become tropical cyclones with little operational global model support.

Most of the non-GFS models have not done well with this so far. The Euro and UKMET have been downright awful. Keeping this in mind, there’s no telling what it may end up doing. They now MAY be downplaying this. SSTs are warm enough to support a TC. And depending on how it does or doesn’t progress developmentwise, dry air may not be enough to prevent a formidable TC within a few days. Shear doesn’t appear to be prohibitively too high even if it isn’t light right now. There seems to be a decent LLC. We’re at the peak in La Niña. I wouldn’t downplay what this MAY do at this point, especially as it reaches warmer SSTs. And this may have a big influence on the next AEW that the Euro is going crazy over.

What is an "AEW"? African ?? Wave?

AEW = African Easterly Wave = tropical wave coming off the coast of West Africa

[LarryWx]

I would surprise me if it does not become at least a tropical storm. The NHC and ensembles are enthused by this system. I have seen many systems, namely Kate, Julian, and Mindy, become tropical cyclones with little operational global model support.

Most of the non-GFS models have not done well with this so far. The Euro and UKMET have been downright awful. Keeping this in mind, there’s no telling what it may end up doing. They now MAY be downplaying this. SSTs are warm enough to support a TC. And depending on how it does or doesn’t progress developmentwise, dry air may not be enough to prevent a formidable TC within a few days. Shear doesn’t appear to be prohibitively too high even if it isn’t light right now. There seems to be a decent LLC. We’re at the peak in La Niña. I wouldn’t downplay what this MAY do at this point, especially as it reaches warmer SSTs. And this may have a big influence on the next AEW that the Euro is going crazy over.

What is an "AEW"? African ?? Wave?

Yes, African Easterly Wave.