ATL: NICHOLAS - Models

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SoupBone
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Re: ATL: NICHOLAS - Models

#261 Postby SoupBone » Sun Sep 12, 2021 10:55 pm

IcyTundra wrote:Looks like the GFS is going to be closer to being right than the Euro. Center reformation aligns with the general idea that the GFS has been showing in today's runs.



Still, nothing that crazy with intensity. Looks like it could make a run for a Cat 1 then shear wallops it.
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Re: ATL: NICHOLAS - Models

#262 Postby Stormcenter » Sun Sep 12, 2021 11:20 pm

I don’t believe the new GFS initializes the new
center on the latest run.
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Re: ATL: NICHOLAS - Models

#263 Postby ROCK » Sun Sep 12, 2021 11:24 pm

Stormcenter wrote:I don’t believe the new GFS initializes the new
center on the latest run.


It didn’t so it’s trash.06z better data. Hes is going to make a run to a strong cat 1 or even low end 2 IMO..
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Re: ATL: NICHOLAS - Models

#264 Postby Weather Dude » Sun Sep 12, 2021 11:26 pm

ROCK wrote:
Stormcenter wrote:I don’t believe the new GFS initializes the new
center on the latest run.


It didn’t so it’s trash.06z better data. Hes is going to make a run to a strong cat 1 or even low end 2 IMO..

Yep I agree, although he may run out of time for Cat 2. There may be a chance of some weakening right before landfall, but at the same time the angle of approach to land could tighten it up some.
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Re: ATL: NICHOLAS - Models

#265 Postby mpic » Sun Sep 12, 2021 11:47 pm

Catching up here. Is it still on track to follow 59 to the northeast out of Houston?
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Re: ATL: NICHOLAS - Models

#266 Postby Cpv17 » Sun Sep 12, 2021 11:51 pm

mpic wrote:Catching up here. Is it still on track to follow 59 to the northeast out of Houston?


According to the latest GFS, yes.
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Re: ATL: NICHOLAS - Models

#267 Postby mpic » Sun Sep 12, 2021 11:53 pm

Cpv17 wrote:
mpic wrote:Catching up here. Is it still on track to follow 59 to the northeast out of Houston?


According to the latest GFS, yes.


I knew I should have taken a nap. Thank you
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Re: ATL: NICHOLAS - Models

#268 Postby Clearcloudz » Mon Sep 13, 2021 12:58 am

00Z EURO has started running.
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Re: ATL: NICHOLAS - Models

#269 Postby IcyTundra » Mon Sep 13, 2021 1:02 am

Looking back at it is kind of comical how bad the Euro has performed with Nicholas over the course of his life.
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Re: ATL: NICHOLAS - Models

#270 Postby MBryant » Mon Sep 13, 2021 4:46 am

Good Morning. It looks like everyone is getting a good night's sleep ahead of the next episode of

- BA BA BA - THE MODEL WARS!
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Re: ATL: NICHOLAS - Models

#271 Postby ChrisH-UK » Mon Sep 13, 2021 5:02 am

It looks like the 6z run of the NAM 3k model has the best model of what we have now and it shows it coming on land near South Padre Island then relocating back east. Now i know models like the NAM are not necessarily tropical based models but what they do offer is a higher resolution and more rapid updates.

Source Tropical Tidbits - https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 91306&fh=1

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Re: ATL: NICHOLAS - Models

#272 Postby tolakram » Mon Sep 13, 2021 6:12 am

Euro 0z
Image

Rainfall
Image
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Re: ATL: NICHOLAS - Models

#273 Postby tolakram » Mon Sep 13, 2021 6:17 am

6Z GFS total precip
Image
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Re: ATL: NICHOLAS - Models

#274 Postby tolakram » Mon Sep 13, 2021 6:33 am

Once again the GFS has proven it's the best model to use for a sheared system, the Euro is just outmatched in these conditions. If the center wasn't being constantly tugged NE I suspect the euro solution would win out, but you can see on current radar (discussion thread) how the center is constantly getting tugged or dragged N/NE. Hopefully the GFS precip solution is correct as well, with the upper level winds blowing most of the precip more rapidly east and not sticking in one area very long.
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Re: ATL: NICHOLAS - Models

#275 Postby tolakram » Mon Sep 13, 2021 7:14 am

6Z Euro
Image

Image
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Re: ATL: NICHOLAS - Models

#276 Postby tolakram » Mon Sep 13, 2021 7:16 am

Image
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Re: ATL: NICHOLAS - Models

#277 Postby tolakram » Mon Sep 13, 2021 7:27 am

Euro starting to spread the rain east rather than sit in one place. That's a good trend for a bad situation, at least.

Image
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Re: ATL: NICHOLAS - Models

#278 Postby Craters » Mon Sep 13, 2021 11:12 am

12Z GFS coming in on Tropical Tidbits. Unless my memory is messing with me, it looks like a significant change in rainfall totals and distribution.

Image
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Re: ATL: NICHOLAS - Models

#279 Postby tolakram » Mon Sep 13, 2021 11:18 am

Craters wrote:12Z GFS coming in on Tropical Tidbits. Unless my memory is messing with me, it looks like a significant change in rainfall totals and distribution.

https://i.ibb.co/RDGv4v2/GFS.jpg


Yep, both GFS and Euro no longer see a stall.
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Re: ATL: NICHOLAS - Models

#280 Postby IcyTundra » Mon Sep 13, 2021 11:21 am

tolakram wrote:
Craters wrote:12Z GFS coming in on Tropical Tidbits. Unless my memory is messing with me, it looks like a significant change in rainfall totals and distribution.

https://i.ibb.co/RDGv4v2/GFS.jpg


Yep, both GFS and Euro no longer see a stall.


GFS has been suggesting a faster moving storm for several runs now causing less rain to fall Euro is just now caving to the GFS solution.
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