EPAC: INVEST 97E - Discussion

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EPAC: INVEST 97E - Discussion

#1 Postby zzh » Sat Sep 11, 2021 1:51 pm

EP, 97, 2021091118, , BEST, 0, 115N, 977W, 20, 1010, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 90, 60, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 022, SPAWNINVEST, ep742021 to ep972021,

https://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/btk
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 97E - Discussion

#2 Postby AnnularCane » Sat Sep 11, 2021 2:13 pm

I could swear I've just seen a 97E before. :double:
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 97E - Discussion

#3 Postby Yellow Evan » Sat Sep 11, 2021 7:31 pm

A broad area of low pressure offshore of southern Mexico is
producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Some gradual development of this system is possible during the next
couple of days as long as it remains over water, and a tropical
depression could form tomorrow or early Monday while the system
moves northwestward or north-northwestward toward the southern and
southwestern coasts of Mexico. Thereafter, further development is
not expected due to interaction with land. Regardless of
development, this system will likely produce heavy rains across
portions of southern Mexico during the next couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 97E - Discussion

#4 Postby Yellow Evan » Sat Sep 11, 2021 7:45 pm

It’s trying but I think close proximity to land will likely end up blocking inflow from the north needed to close off a center.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 97E - Discussion

#5 Postby Yellow Evan » Sat Sep 11, 2021 7:49 pm

TXPZ27 KNES 112349
TCSENP

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (97E)

B. 11/2330Z

C. 14.8N

D. 94.3W

E. THREE/GOES-E

F. T1.0/1.0

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...GREATER THAN 2/10 BANDING YIELDS A DT OF 1.0. MET=1.0 AND
PT=1.0. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...KIM
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 97E - Discussion

#6 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Sep 12, 2021 1:33 am

An area of low pressure over the Gulf of Tehuantepec continues
to produce a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Further development of this system is possible during the next
couple of days as long as it remains over water, and a tropical
depression could form tomorrow or early Monday while the system
moves northwestward toward the southern and southwestern coasts of
Mexico. Further development is not expected by midweek due to
interaction with land. Regardless of development, this system will
likely produce heavy rains across portions of southern Mexico during
the next couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 97E - Discussion

#7 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Sep 12, 2021 1:36 am

0z GFS initialized too far south and is suffering from convective feedback. Ignore.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 97E - Discussion

#8 Postby cycloneye » Sun Sep 12, 2021 6:38 am

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Sun Sep 12 2021

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. An area of low pressure located near the southeastern coast of
Mexico just east of Puerto Angel is producing limited shower and
thunderstorm activity. Further development of this system is
becoming less likely now that the low is interacting with land.
However, a tropical depression could still form if the system moves
westward away from the coast of Mexico during the next day or two.
Regardless of development, this system will likely produce heavy
rains across portions of southern Mexico through Tuesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

Forecaster Stewart
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 97E - Discussion

#9 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Sep 12, 2021 3:37 pm

An area of low pressure located near the southeastern coast of
Mexico just to the southwest of Puerto Angel is producing
disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity. Further development
of this system is unlikely today now that the low is interacting
with land. However, a tropical depression could still form if the
system moves westward away from the coast of southern Mexico during
the next few days. Regardless of development, this system will
likely produce heavy rains across portions of southern Mexico
through Tuesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 97E - Discussion

#10 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Sep 13, 2021 12:58 am

1. Satellite wind data indicate that disorganized showers and
thunderstorms near the coast of southern Mexico are associated with
an elongated area of low pressure located a couple hundred miles
south of Acapulco, Mexico. Environmental conditions are marginally
conducive for development, and a tropical depression could still
form during the couple of days while it moves westward or
west-northwestward just offshore of the coast of southern Mexico.
Regardless of development, this system will likely produce heavy
rains across portions of southern Mexico through Tuesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 97E - Discussion

#11 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Sep 13, 2021 10:12 am

13/1130 UTC 17.0N 102.4W T1.5/1.5 97E -- East Pacific
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 97E - Discussion

#12 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Sep 13, 2021 10:13 am

1. Showers and thunderstorms have increased overnight in association
with an elongated area of low pressure located more than 100 miles
southwest of Acapulco, Mexico. Environmental conditions are
marginally conducive for development, and a tropical depression
could form during the next couple of days while it moves westward
or west-northwestward just offshore of the coast of southern
Mexico. Regardless of development, this system will likely produce
heavy rains across portions of southern and southwestern Mexico
through Tuesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.
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