ATL: PETER - Remnants - Discussion

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Teban54
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Re: ATL: PETER - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#381 Postby Teban54 » Wed Sep 22, 2021 9:55 pm

042
WTNT31 KNHC 230235
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Remnants Of Peter Advisory Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162021
1100 PM AST Wed Sep 22 2021

...DEPRESSION PETERS OUT...
...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ON PETER...
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Re: ATL: PETER - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#382 Postby AnnularCane » Wed Sep 22, 2021 10:01 pm

Teban54 wrote:
042
WTNT31 KNHC 230235
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Remnants Of Peter Advisory Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162021
1100 PM AST Wed Sep 22 2021

...DEPRESSION PETERS OUT...
...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ON PETER...


They were probably waiting to do this. :lol:
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Re: ATL: PETER - Remnants - Discussion

#383 Postby USTropics » Thu Sep 23, 2021 1:20 am

For entertainment purposes only: the past two GFS runs pull a Peter Pan and brings this back from Neverland. From the 00z GFS forecast, here is a loop with 48 hour time-steps highlighting the remnants of Peter followed by the entire GFS run (starting 2 days ago):

Image

Image

The ECMWF and CMC have this being absorbed by the next trough pushing off the NE coast (a more likely scenario). Entertaining none the less though.
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Re: ATL: PETER - Remnants - Discussion

#384 Postby Nimbus » Thu Sep 23, 2021 5:43 am

USTropics wrote:For entertainment purposes only: the past two GFS runs pull a Peter Pan and brings this back from Neverland. From the 00z GFS forecast, here is a loop with 48 hour time-steps highlighting the remnants of Peter followed by the entire GFS run (starting 2 days ago):

https://i.imgur.com/KuUjHb9.gif

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/pw/AM-JKLXkHJ-tokW7Yhyqxj6WXM1VZYUi9LkLRZf0mHym2xpI82zXaMJ-YIyBa1Ch8RHWTnWG2G6bIz_1eBB62taZ9WQZsfRqiFAVy66ZWVZLFAEnqjfP5kKHLjoDmMS_UUQL1CRvcKQVg6TBfafeeReLnwzQ=w1024-h724-no?authuser=0

The ECMWF and CMC have this being absorbed by the next trough pushing off the NE coast (a more likely scenario). Entertaining none the less though.


Advisory 18 ends the official observations, but the 153 isobar line is a couple thousand feet of low pressure that the GFS has hanging around till October?

ULL is still there to the north shearing convection east and the shear may be about the only thing providing any convective lift.
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Re: ATL: PETER - Remnants - Discussion

#385 Postby SconnieCane » Thu Sep 23, 2021 6:18 am

USTropics wrote:For entertainment purposes only: the past two GFS runs pull a Peter Pan and brings this back from Neverland. From the 00z GFS forecast, here is a loop with 48 hour time-steps highlighting the remnants of Peter followed by the entire GFS run (starting 2 days ago):

https://i.imgur.com/KuUjHb9.gif

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/pw/AM-JKLXkHJ-tokW7Yhyqxj6WXM1VZYUi9LkLRZf0mHym2xpI82zXaMJ-YIyBa1Ch8RHWTnWG2G6bIz_1eBB62taZ9WQZsfRqiFAVy66ZWVZLFAEnqjfP5kKHLjoDmMS_UUQL1CRvcKQVg6TBfafeeReLnwzQ=w1024-h724-no?authuser=0

The ECMWF and CMC have this being absorbed by the next trough pushing off the NE coast (a more likely scenario). Entertaining none the less though.


Meanwhile, that GFS run casually with a potential Opal/Michael-like beast into the Big Bend, and another EPAC system heading towards Baja California Sur.
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Re: ATL: PETER - Remnants - Discussion

#386 Postby Sciencerocks » Thu Sep 23, 2021 3:02 pm

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Re: ATL: PETER - Remnants - Discussion

#387 Postby AlphaToOmega » Sat Sep 25, 2021 6:55 am

An area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms associated with
the remnants of Peter is located several hundred miles south of
Bermuda. Environmental conditions appear marginally conducive for
slow development of this disturbance over the next few days as it
moves northeastward at 5 to 10 mph.
*Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
*Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
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Re: ATL: PETER - Remnants - Discussion

#388 Postby galaxy401 » Sat Sep 25, 2021 3:53 pm

So Peter does still live. Thought it got absorbed by the trough that later became Teresa.
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Got my eyes on moving right into Hurricane Alley: Florida.

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Re: ATL: PETER - Remnants - Discussion

#389 Postby CyclonicFury » Sun Sep 26, 2021 1:08 pm

Up to 30/30
Showers and thunderstorms have become a little better organized
today in association with a surface trough that is the remnants of
Peter. Upper-level winds are marginally conducive for some slow
development of this disturbance over the next couple of days as it
moves northeastward at about 10 mph. By midweek, environmental
conditions are expected to become unfavorable for further
development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.
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NCSU B.S. in Meteorology Class of 2021. Tropical weather blogger at http://www.cyclonicfury.com. My forecasts and thoughts are NOT official, for official forecasts please consult the National Hurricane Center.

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Re: ATL: PETER - Remnants - Discussion

#390 Postby Sciencerocks » Sun Sep 26, 2021 8:37 pm

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Sun Sep 26 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Sam, located several hundred miles east of Lesser Antilles.

Showers and thunderstorms have become a little better organized
today in association with a surface trough (the remnants of
Peter) located several hundred miles southeast of Bermuda.
Upper-level winds are marginally conducive for further
development, and Peter could become a tropical depression again
during the next couple of days while it moves northeastward at
about 10 mph. By midweek, environmental conditions are expected to
become unfavorable for further development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.
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Re: ATL: PETER - Remnants - Discussion

#391 Postby Sciencerocks » Sun Sep 26, 2021 8:38 pm

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Re: ATL: PETER - Remnants - Discussion

#392 Postby Teban54 » Mon Sep 27, 2021 9:08 am

1. An elongated area of low pressure associated with the remnants of
Peter is located a few hundred miles east-southeast of Bermuda.
Showers and thunderstorms associated with this system have changed
little in organization since yesterday. However, environmental
conditions are marginally conducive for some further development,
and Peter could briefly become a tropical depression again during
the next day or two while it moves northeastward near 10 mph.
By midweek, environmental conditions are expected to become
unfavorable for further development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.
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Re: ATL: PETER - Remnants - Discussion

#393 Postby Woofde » Mon Sep 27, 2021 9:30 am

Deja Vu... the P storm is trying reform while we rocket down the naming list.
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Re: ATL: PETER - Remnants - Discussion

#394 Postby AnnularCane » Mon Sep 27, 2021 9:40 am

Woofde wrote:Deja Vu... the P storm is trying reform while we rocket down the naming list.



Yeah...I seem to remember another P storm doing the same thing. :lol:
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Re: ATL: PETER - Remnants - Discussion

#395 Postby Teban54 » Mon Sep 27, 2021 10:32 am

Much better than I thought, might already be close:
Image
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Re: ATL: PETER - Remnants - Discussion

#396 Postby Sciencerocks » Mon Sep 27, 2021 12:32 pm

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Re: ATL: PETER - Remnants - Discussion

#397 Postby Sciencerocks » Wed Sep 29, 2021 11:06 am

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Re: ATL: PETER - Remnants - Discussion

#398 Postby Teban54 » Wed Sep 29, 2021 11:10 am

Wouldn't be surprised if the TCR has it actually regenerate into a weak TD/TS.
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