ATL: PETER - Remnants - Discussion

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Re: ATL: PETER - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#341 Postby Nimbus » Mon Sep 20, 2021 10:03 am

The upper level low that cut off looks like it is trying to develop a warm core with Peters low level circulation.
That would be interesting but no model support?
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Re: ATL: PETER - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#342 Postby Sciencerocks » Mon Sep 20, 2021 11:02 am

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Re: ATL: PETER - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#343 Postby aspen » Mon Sep 20, 2021 12:43 pm

It’s possible that Peter gets stuck in the mid-latitudes starting this weekend, which could lead to some amount of re-intensification if over conditions are favorable. A trapped Peter would also have track implications for 98L/Sam, because the models that do trap it keep it around for 7-10 days, and Sam will be approaching 55-60W by then.
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Re: ATL: PETER - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#344 Postby Nimbus » Mon Sep 20, 2021 1:26 pm

aspen wrote:It’s possible that Peter gets stuck in the mid-latitudes starting this weekend, which could lead to some amount of re-intensification if over conditions are favorable. A trapped Peter would also have track implications for 98L/Sam, because the models that do trap it keep it around for 7-10 days, and Sam will be approaching 55-60W by then.


Peter might follow the HMON track if it keeps surviving the shear with these comeback convection bursts.
The upper level low is starting to weaken but its a tough call without some soundings.
HMON doesn't show much steering in this scenario near the Bahamas.
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Re: ATL: PETER - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#345 Postby Teban54 » Mon Sep 20, 2021 1:50 pm

That's quite an epic comeback, at least for now.
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Re: ATL: PETER - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#346 Postby JetFuel_SE » Mon Sep 20, 2021 2:14 pm

tolakram wrote:P E T E

You know his name is Peter, and that he hates being called "P E T E"
Please show some respect.
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Re: ATL: PETER - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#347 Postby tolakram » Mon Sep 20, 2021 2:20 pm

JetFuel_SE wrote:
tolakram wrote:P E T E

You know his name is Peter, and that he hates being called "P E T E"
Please show some respect.


Not until he stops running around without clothes.
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Re: ATL: PETER - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#348 Postby JetFuel_SE » Mon Sep 20, 2021 2:22 pm

tolakram wrote:
JetFuel_SE wrote:
tolakram wrote:P E T E

You know his name is Peter, and that he hates being called "P E T E"
Please show some respect.


Not until he stops running around without clothes.

That is discrimination against him on the basis that he is a nudist, don't sink that low, please.
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Re: ATL: PETER - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#349 Postby Sciencerocks » Mon Sep 20, 2021 2:51 pm

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Re: ATL: PETER - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#350 Postby Iceresistance » Mon Sep 20, 2021 2:58 pm

Teban54 wrote:That's quite an epic comeback, at least for now.
https://i.ibb.co/xXQzjL4/goes16-vis-swi ... 201305.gif


Peter's will to stay classified as a Tropical Cyclone is very strong!
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Re: ATL: PETER - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#351 Postby Sciencerocks » Mon Sep 20, 2021 9:01 pm

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Re: ATL: PETER - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#352 Postby IsabelaWeather » Mon Sep 20, 2021 9:15 pm




Is that the low center moving SW or is it under the convection? Hard to tell...
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Re: ATL: PETER - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#353 Postby Sciencerocks » Mon Sep 20, 2021 9:21 pm

IsabelaWeather wrote:



Is that the low center moving SW or is it under the convection? Hard to tell...



Looks to be southwest to me ;)
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Re: ATL: PETER - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#354 Postby MarioProtVI » Mon Sep 20, 2021 10:00 pm

Yeah this thing just killed itself as recon confirmed a quickly elongating and likely not even closed anymore LLC. Should issue a TCU declaring it a trough.
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Re: ATL: PETER - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#355 Postby Teban54 » Mon Sep 20, 2021 11:17 pm

MarioProtVI wrote:Yeah this thing just killed itself as recon confirmed a quickly elongating and likely not even closed anymore LLC. Should issue a TCU declaring it a trough.

Looks like Peter and Rose both poofed at roughly the same time. At least they had an impressive day given less than favorable conditions.
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Re: ATL: PETER - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#356 Postby Nimbus » Tue Sep 21, 2021 5:17 am

Peter tracked west under the shear of the persistent ULL as a weak system rather than being steered NW as a deeper storm. What was the lowest surface pressure discovered by recon 1009?
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Re: ATL: PETER - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#357 Postby wxman57 » Tue Sep 21, 2021 8:26 am

Peter is on life support this morning. Recon finding a poorly-organized 25 kt low that is far-removed from any convection. No model support for regeneration.

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Re: ATL: PETER - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#358 Postby aspen » Tue Sep 21, 2021 8:32 am

"Mr. Stark, I don't feel so good..."
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Re: ATL: PETER - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#359 Postby crownweather » Tue Sep 21, 2021 8:35 am

wxman57 wrote:Peter is on life support this morning. Recon finding a poorly-organized 25 kt low that is far-removed from any convection. No model support for regeneration.

http://wxman57.com/images/itsdeadjim.jpg


Peter is petering out. :wink:
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Re: ATL: PETER - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#360 Postby wxman57 » Tue Sep 21, 2021 9:56 am

I'll be interested to read the NHC's discussion on why Peter is still classified a TS when recon couldn't even find a 30kt wind.

Turns out they just can't believe it's not a TS, even though the plane can't find any evidence. They say they are being generous in keeping it a TS because the plane only sampled the area 150 miles NE of the center and not the ones out to 300-400 miles out. I say, go with the evidence and not generosity. Their marine forecast has 35kt winds 130nm NE of the center, where the plane found 25kt winds. Doesn't make any sense.
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