ATL: PETER - Models

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Blown Away
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#241 Postby Blown Away » Wed Sep 15, 2021 5:24 pm

AutoPenalti wrote:What a mess.


Actually IMO, the longer 95L stays weak the closer to the CONUS it will get and doesn't take much space to blow up. Look what happens in the GOM.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#242 Postby toad strangler » Wed Sep 15, 2021 5:25 pm

Head first into PR heading due W. That's a el poofo heading.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#243 Postby IcyTundra » Wed Sep 15, 2021 5:26 pm

The TUTT is really giving 95L issues on this run.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#244 Postby ElectricStorm » Wed Sep 15, 2021 5:27 pm

Lol back to getting shredded on this run. Back and forth back and forth
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#245 Postby IcyTundra » Wed Sep 15, 2021 5:29 pm

Degenerates into an open wave going due west across PR.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#246 Postby Sciencerocks » Wed Sep 15, 2021 5:29 pm

Based on the trend over the past 72 hours I think the gfs is seeing something. This could remain a very weak system and head more westward.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#247 Postby IcyTundra » Wed Sep 15, 2021 5:30 pm

Still a chance this stays weak enough that it goes south of the GA and gets its act together in the Carribean imo.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#248 Postby aspen » Wed Sep 15, 2021 5:31 pm

18z “Happy Hour” GFS is more of a sad hour run. Seems like if 95L is a little too far SW in the 5-7 day range, it’ll go over the islands as it weakens and changes from NW to WNW motion.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#249 Postby toad strangler » Wed Sep 15, 2021 5:31 pm

174 hours splits into two vorts. The N one looks to go N. Time to stop watching the 18z GFS :D
Last edited by toad strangler on Wed Sep 15, 2021 5:32 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#250 Postby ElectricStorm » Wed Sep 15, 2021 5:32 pm

The GFS does seem to underestimate ridges. There could be a scenario where this becomes like Fred and Grace and has to navigate the GA's.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#251 Postby Blown Away » Wed Sep 15, 2021 5:32 pm

IcyTundra wrote:Still a chance this stays weak enough that it goes south of the GA and gets its act together in the Carribean imo.


At @186 hrs it's NE of PR, what's left of it.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#252 Postby IcyTundra » Wed Sep 15, 2021 5:33 pm

aspen wrote:18z “Happy Hour” GFS is more of a sad hour run. Seems like if 95L is a little too far SW in the 5-7 day range, it’ll go over the islands as it weakens and changes from NW to WNW motion.


I think the GFS could be right about 95L staying weak for awhile and allowing it to get further west though I do think the GFS has a staying a bit too weak.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#253 Postby Hurricaneman » Wed Sep 15, 2021 5:33 pm

Looks like redevelopment with the MLC at 192 north of Puerto Rico
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#254 Postby toad strangler » Wed Sep 15, 2021 5:33 pm

Weather Dude wrote:The GFS does seem to underestimate ridges. There could be a scenario where this becomes like Fred and Grace and has to navigate the GA's.


To me it's just another swing. 0z into Bermuda. :wink: check that, 18z might do just that :lol:
Last edited by toad strangler on Wed Sep 15, 2021 5:34 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#255 Postby ElectricStorm » Wed Sep 15, 2021 5:34 pm

toad strangler wrote:
Weather Dude wrote:The GFS does seem to underestimate ridges. There could be a scenario where this becomes like Fred and Grace and has to navigate the GA's.


To me it's just another swing. 0z into Bermuda. :wink:

Wouldn't be surprised honestly
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#256 Postby AlphaToOmega » Wed Sep 15, 2021 5:36 pm

12Z CMC reminds me of a certain "A" storm from MCMXCII.
Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#257 Postby aspen » Wed Sep 15, 2021 5:37 pm

Weather Dude wrote:The GFS does seem to underestimate ridges. There could be a scenario where this becomes like Fred and Grace and has to navigate the GA's.

Fred and Grace were annoying enough, we don’t need a third. Also, the Euro tends to be overly strong with ridging, but it hasn’t been consistent with a GA track.

The 18z ICON seemingly abandons the idea of 96L stalling over the Gulf Stream.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#258 Postby ElectricStorm » Wed Sep 15, 2021 5:39 pm

All these GFS runs going back and forth I'm just waiting for the run that tries to get it sub 900 :lol:

GFS seems good for 1 of those every year and I'm still waiting for it
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#259 Postby Hurricaneman » Wed Sep 15, 2021 5:45 pm

Basically tries to redevelop this as it heads toward Bermuda this run
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#260 Postby toad strangler » Wed Sep 15, 2021 5:49 pm

Yep,

NOTHING is certain. On either end of the spectrum.

 http://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1438269411681521664


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