ATL: PETER - Models

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Teban54
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#261 Postby Teban54 » Wed Sep 15, 2021 5:50 pm

aspen wrote:
Weather Dude wrote:The GFS does seem to underestimate ridges. There could be a scenario where this becomes like Fred and Grace and has to navigate the GA's.

Fred and Grace were annoying enough, we don’t need a third. Also, the Euro tends to be overly strong with ridging, but it hasn’t been consistent with a GA track.

The 18z ICON seemingly abandons the idea of 96L stalling over the Gulf Stream.

Not sure about the ICON part, 6z and 18z ICON runs just don't go far enough to the time frame when stalling is expected to happen. At least on Tropical Tidbits I can only see up to 120 hrs.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#262 Postby aspen » Wed Sep 15, 2021 5:54 pm

Teban54 wrote:
aspen wrote:
Weather Dude wrote:The GFS does seem to underestimate ridges. There could be a scenario where this becomes like Fred and Grace and has to navigate the GA's.

Fred and Grace were annoying enough, we don’t need a third. Also, the Euro tends to be overly strong with ridging, but it hasn’t been consistent with a GA track.

The 18z ICON seemingly abandons the idea of 96L stalling over the Gulf Stream.

Not sure about the ICON part, 6z and 18z ICON runs just don't go far enough to the time frame when stalling is expected to happen. At least on Tropical Tidbits I can only see up to 120 hrs.

It seemed to be heading off to the east too fast for it to stall later in the run, if the run went out to 180hr.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#263 Postby Kohlecane » Wed Sep 15, 2021 6:22 pm

I don't know about the 18Z GFS, great solution with minimal impacts, but man what a 180. I like comparing 24 hrs apart 00-00/06-06z etc. and especially since we are still a week out from this coming over the GA's, I'll probably call it a night and finally get some rest, get back on base tomorrow morning in time for the 6z and I'm sure Rose will be a CAG storm :roll:
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#264 Postby Category5Kaiju » Wed Sep 15, 2021 7:24 pm

The GEPS still seems pretty enthused on development, so idk. This GFS run was something interesting, although I am not sure why all of a sudden it showed that after 3 bullish runs.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#265 Postby gatorcane » Wed Sep 15, 2021 7:29 pm

The shear is so strong on this 18Z GFS run it literally decouples it :eek:

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#266 Postby SouthFLTropics » Wed Sep 15, 2021 7:36 pm

HWRF went from a major hurricane on the 12z to a tropical storm on 18z... The bears are definitely dominating the models tonight.

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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#267 Postby IcyTundra » Wed Sep 15, 2021 7:38 pm

18Z HWRF is very similar to the 18Z GFS.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#268 Postby sma10 » Wed Sep 15, 2021 7:46 pm

Maybe 95 turns out to be a big nothing, but given the current conditions, the only realistic way for this system to cause problems for the SE US is for it to continue ambling weakly to the west with no development for the next 5-6 days.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#269 Postby Category5Kaiju » Wed Sep 15, 2021 7:52 pm

It is fascinating to watch this storm and this thread in general. At one moment it's all bulls and super active, and then another moment it's all bears and dead silent or talking about the good ol' TUTT. It also does not help that the models show favorable conditions ahead, only to then turn the other way around completely. As for the long term future of 95L, who will be right at this point I have no idea (personally I am a bull, but we'll see). It's a bull vs bear battle at this point as this storm's future is so cloudy. Will the bull gore the bear and vanquish it, or will the bear claw the bull? I think we'll have a better idea by this weekend.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#270 Postby toad strangler » Wed Sep 15, 2021 8:34 pm

The best in the biz have no idea. Why would any of us? :lol:

 http://twitter.com/DrRickKnabb/status/1438291582873182214


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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#271 Postby IcyTundra » Wed Sep 15, 2021 10:47 pm

00Z ICON keeps 95L very weak and passes just to the north of PR but shortly after degenerates into an open wave.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#272 Postby sma10 » Wed Sep 15, 2021 11:00 pm

toad strangler wrote:The best in the biz have no idea. Why would any of us? :lol:

http://twitter.com/DrRickKnabb/status/1438291582873182214?s=20


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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#273 Postby IcyTundra » Wed Sep 15, 2021 11:17 pm

If 95L is as weak as the GFS has been suggesting when it reachs the Carribean 95L will have a very hard time surviving the TUTT and wind shear.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#274 Postby sma10 » Wed Sep 15, 2021 11:18 pm

UK finally showing 95L some love.

Does not actually develop it until around 19N 63W but has it moving just north of due west and intensifying. Keep a watch on this - westward moving, newly developed storms in that area could be trouble.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#275 Postby Teban54 » Thu Sep 16, 2021 1:43 am

Not sure why the thread suddenly became so quiet when the CMC has this:
Image
Steering looks a bit concerning too, even though it is already recurving:
Image
But still, CMC is the only model that redevelops 95L north of PR in the 0z run. It is also the only model that moves 96L quickly out to sea without stalling.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#276 Postby aspen » Thu Sep 16, 2021 6:12 am

So much back-and-forth and inconsistency among the models.

The GFS had several consecutive runs where 95L survives the TUTT, now it has several consecutive runs where it doesn’t and sticks very close to the Greater Antilles. The ICON and CMC show a similar track to the GFS, but range from an open wave to what would be an intensifying major.

The Euro has remained bearish, and the HWRF has been all over the place. It went from a pinhole Cat 3 at 12z to a very weak TS at 18z to a brief Cat 1 at 00z.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#277 Postby aspen » Thu Sep 16, 2021 7:02 am

inb4 some model shows a major going into Florida sometime in the next 24 hours.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#278 Postby kevin » Thu Sep 16, 2021 7:04 am

aspen wrote:inb4 some model shows a major going into Florida sometime in the next 24 hours.


My bet is on 18z GFS to keep the happy hour tradition alive. But crazy how much the models are flip flopping, from an intensifying cat 3 to barely a TS in the next run.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#279 Postby aspen » Thu Sep 16, 2021 7:33 am

06z HWRF at the end of the run is like “TUTT? What TUTT?” and has 95L as a Cat 2/3 that seems to still be intensifying.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#280 Postby kevin » Thu Sep 16, 2021 7:42 am

I like how there's always 1 model per 6-hour cycle that bombs out this invest so we stay on our toes. In the 06z cycle that job went to HWRF which has an intensifying cat 2 (981mb to 967mb in the last 12 hours of the run) about to enter the top-right corner of the Hebert box. Very different from 00z HWRF which had a weakening TS (that peaked as a cat 1).

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