ATL: PETER - Models

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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#301 Postby Nimbus » Thu Sep 16, 2021 5:30 pm

18Z GFS isn't showing 97L forcing 95L's track further south. Not sure that it would be close enough but might mess things up if it forms.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#302 Postby SouthFLTropics » Thu Sep 16, 2021 5:33 pm

Regardless of whether anything forms or not, nothing is getting anywhere near the CONUS with this pattern.

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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#303 Postby aspen » Thu Sep 16, 2021 5:35 pm

18z GFS is essentially copy+paste of yesterday’s 18z run.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#304 Postby aspen » Thu Sep 16, 2021 6:41 pm

18z HWRF has TS Odette by the second half of Saturday, but it’s a little further north and starts feeling the impacts of shear much earlier — by Sunday afternoon.

Update: it remains a mid-range TS for the rest of the run and hangs on quite well despite being sheared. This is very similar to most of the GFS runs over the last few days and is a more reasonable outcome than a Cat 2/3 approaching the islands. If the HWRF run went out another few days, I bet it would show recovery.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#305 Postby Blown Away » Fri Sep 17, 2021 12:06 am

00z GFS carries 95L OTS, but it loops and you get the sense it could get trapped under the building ridge. Likely won’t.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#306 Postby ConvergenceZone » Fri Sep 17, 2021 12:52 am

With September winding down in a couple of weeks, looks like we may need to wait until October to get any potential USA Landfall impacts. Although I'm hoping 95L will steer clear of Bermuda if it does develop into anything serious...
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#307 Postby Teban54 » Fri Sep 17, 2021 2:38 am

Models are bac to showing redevelopment post-TUTT in the subtropics, ranging from a weak TS to a potent hurricane.

0z GPS has 95L doing a cyclonic loop and then in a rare straight north heading towards Newfoundland, making landfall as a 975 mb hurricane there (Juan 2003 Newfoundland edition).
0z CMC slams it right through Bermuda after peaking at 976 mb.
0z Euro has a 1003 mb storm Fujiwhara with 96L.

Given that models consistently overestimated activity in the subtropics this season, with both Henri and Julian well below the intensity forecasts, I'm not sure whether these will verify. Regardless, seems like September won't be as quiet as people were suggesting.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#308 Postby LarryWx » Fri Sep 17, 2021 3:33 am

It probably isn't worth a mention since it is the inferior Crazy Uncle Ensemble (just a bunch of perturbed Crazy Uncles (think about it: how can a mad Crazy Uncle be the least bit reliable), but I'll just say that for whatever reason, be it crack or something else, there are 1/3 of the members which hit the SE CONUS (mainly FL but also 1 LA and 1 SC) between 9/22 and 9/28:

Image

Actually, 5 of the last 7 CMC ensemble runs have been like this.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#309 Postby Nimbus » Fri Sep 17, 2021 5:48 am

You can see a trough starting to dig south in the WV imagery NNW of 95L this morning. When are they going to call 97L will that follow 95L north?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#310 Postby grapealcoholic » Fri Sep 17, 2021 1:54 pm

Huge differences between Euro and GFS in how they resolve 96L

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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#311 Postby cajungal » Fri Sep 17, 2021 2:05 pm

LarryWx wrote:It probably isn't worth a mention since it is the inferior Crazy Uncle Ensemble (just a bunch of perturbed Crazy Uncles (think about it: how can a mad Crazy Uncle be the least bit reliable), but I'll just say that for whatever reason, be it crack or something else, there are 1/3 of the members which hit the SE CONUS (mainly FL but also 1 LA and 1 SC) between 9/22 and 9/28:

Louisiana is closed until the year 2076

https://i.imgur.com/WxDSYXx.png

Actually, 5 of the last 7 CMC ensemble runs have been like this.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#312 Postby LarryWx » Fri Sep 17, 2021 4:42 pm

What the? There are a good number of hits on the NE US in the 12Z CMC ensemble:

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#313 Postby aspen » Fri Sep 17, 2021 5:06 pm

Odette is out of the picture by early Tuesday on the GFS, with a ridge above 95L. It’s weak by this time but let’s see if it re-develops and tries to go west.

Update: ripped apart on this run. Another copy+paste 18z GFS
Last edited by aspen on Fri Sep 17, 2021 5:13 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#314 Postby cajungal » Fri Sep 17, 2021 5:09 pm

LarryWx wrote:What the? There are a good number of hits on the NE US in the 12Z CMC ensemble:

https://i.imgur.com/Fi1Nvb0.png


Love that the gulf looks like a ghost town
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#315 Postby IcyTundra » Fri Sep 17, 2021 5:16 pm

GFS wants to keep 95L weak which allows for 95L to dissipate into an open wave after running into a wall of shear north of PR. If 95L is as weak as the GFS suggests then it will likely be right as a weaker system would not be able to fight off the shear. But if 95L is just a little bit stronger than what the GFS has been showing in recent days 95L will have a chance of surviving the shear.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#316 Postby aspen » Fri Sep 17, 2021 6:49 pm

18z HWRF is basically the 18z GFS in terms of both track and intensity.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#317 Postby jhpigott » Sat Sep 18, 2021 10:21 am

Interesting run of the 0z CMC. Looks like steering currents collapses and 95L drifts around for 5+ days just east of the Bahamas

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 1800&fh=12
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#318 Postby Nimbus » Sat Sep 18, 2021 10:25 am

jhpigott wrote:Interesting run of the 0z CMC. Looks like steering currents collapses and 95L drifts around for 5+ days just east of the Bahamas

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 1800&fh=12


Just makes it wait for the trough so no one will argue about the trough being strong enough..
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#319 Postby Blown Away » Sat Sep 18, 2021 10:51 am

jhpigott wrote:Interesting run of the 0z CMC. Looks like steering currents collapses and 95L drifts around for 5+ days just east of the Bahamas

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 1800&fh=12


When 95L rounds the HP and begins NW turn the current modeling show weak steering currents, some collapse and do small loop. Something to watch!
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#320 Postby toad strangler » Sat Sep 18, 2021 12:07 pm

Blown Away wrote:
jhpigott wrote:Interesting run of the 0z CMC. Looks like steering currents collapses and 95L drifts around for 5+ days just east of the Bahamas

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 1800&fh=12


When 95L rounds the HP and begins NW turn the current modeling show weak steering currents, some collapse and do small loop. Something to watch!


This is preposterous. Weren’t we told days ago that this was a goner? 95L had no business getting this far west.
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