ATL: PETER - Models

[tolakram]

Here's how the GFS models it. Way too far out right now to have a lot of confidence in this solution.

[toad strangler]

Well FWIW the vorticity that's left of 95L is significantly further S than 6z and near the E GA's.

[Blown Away]

12z GFS takes a TS into the NE Caribbean.

[toad strangler]

12z GFS takes a TS into the NE Caribbean.

misses the GA's just to the N but I don't think it's a TS, more likely just a wave but at this time period that point is mute. It's interesting though the the energy stayed S in this run.

[aspen]

Ripped to shreds on the 12z GFS. However, it has 95L as a tiny TS when approaching the TUTT. If it’s larger and/or stronger, it might have a better shot.

Quite a change from 36-48 hours ago, when this was thought to potentially be a long-tracking continuous major with no significant hurdles that would kill it or cause a temporary weakening phase.

[toad strangler]

Ripped to shreds on the 12z GFS. However, it has 95L as a tiny TS when approaching the TUTT. If it’s larger and/or stronger, it might have a better shot.

Quite a change from 36-48 hours ago, when this was thought to potentially be a long-tracking continuous major with no significant hurdles that would kill it or cause a temporary weakening phase.

That was a fleeting thought at these far flung hours. Normal.

[SFLcane]

12z GFS takes a TS into the NE Caribbean.

misses the GA's just to the N but I don't think it's a TS, more likely just a wave but at this time period that point is mute. It's interesting though the the energy stayed S in this run.

I mean yeah because it's a decoupled shallow vortex getting 45 kt of shear. That solution doesn't leave room for anything remotely interesting.

[Kohlecane]

Ripped to shreds on the 12z GFS. However, it has 95L as a tiny TS when approaching the TUTT. If it’s larger and/or stronger, it might have a better shot.

Quite a change from 36-48 hours ago, when this was thought to potentially be a long-tracking continuous major with no significant hurdles that would kill it or cause a temporary weakening phase.

I thought like 36-48 hours ago the GFS wasn't even on board in the OP

[toad strangler]

12z GFS takes a TS into the NE Caribbean.

misses the GA's just to the N but I don't think it's a TS, more likely just a wave but at this time period that point is mute. It's interesting though the the energy stayed S in this run.

I mean yeah because it's a decoupled shallow vortex getting 45 kt of shear. That solution doesn't leave room for anything remotely interesting.

Any energy that could possibly escape would be interesting. AS doubtful as it may be.

[toad strangler]

Ripped to shreds on the 12z GFS. However, it has 95L as a tiny TS when approaching the TUTT. If it’s larger and/or stronger, it might have a better shot.

Quite a change from 36-48 hours ago, when this was thought to potentially be a long-tracking continuous major with no significant hurdles that would kill it or cause a temporary weakening phase.

I thought like 36-48 hours ago the GFS wasn't even on board in the OP

He is thinking of the Euro

[Kohlecane]

well one thing is for sure, this is the first GFS with 95L so keep that in mind, thinking we will get a better understanding when the Euro runs and some more guidance now that it is over water

[aspen]

Ripped to shreds on the 12z GFS. However, it has 95L as a tiny TS when approaching the TUTT. If it’s larger and/or stronger, it might have a better shot.

Quite a change from 36-48 hours ago, when this was thought to potentially be a long-tracking continuous major with no significant hurdles that would kill it or cause a temporary weakening phase.

I thought like 36-48 hours ago the GFS wasn't even on board in the OP

He is thinking of the Euro

Yeah mainly the Euro but also the ensembles (which haven’t reacted that much to the PVS forecast), and the CMC/ICON which didn’t show the PVS until today’s runs.

[Spacecoast]

The 12z GEFS ens finally showing less spread, and clustered @180hr.
Almost all now trackiing E of the 20N,60W

[SFLcane]

We'll see if 95L can become a hurricane briefly before the tutt shreads it.

[Woofde]

We'll see if 95L can become a hurricane briefly before the tutt shreads it.

The potential tutt interaction is still ~168 hours out. The positioning of both it and 95L could be very different than what is currently modeled.

[Blown Away]

12z GFS brings a weakening TS/TD into the NE Caribbean and then dissipates...

[toad strangler]

12z Euro is far to the N with 95L

[Blown Away]

12z Euro with Larry track... Fortunately all the talk of this blocking ridge seems to evaporate each and every storm...

[Sciencerocks]

[pgoss11]

https://i.imgur.com/nn6cOAp.gif
12z Euro with Larry track... Fortunately all the talk of this blocking ridge seems to evaporate each and every storm...

I agree. The pattern is very progressive. Hard to get a viable threat with this pattern.