ATL: ODETTE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Blinhart
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#21 Postby Blinhart » Wed Sep 15, 2021 2:44 pm

I'm thinking that if something does come out of this, it might start off tropical for a day or two at most then go to Sub-Tropical, that is if it doesn't just start off as Sub-Tropical.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#22 Postby Sciencerocks » Wed Sep 15, 2021 4:48 pm

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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#23 Postby Sciencerocks » Wed Sep 15, 2021 10:57 pm

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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#24 Postby AlphaToOmega » Thu Sep 16, 2021 4:21 am

Has the NHC seen the ASCAT runs?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#25 Postby Ubuntwo » Thu Sep 16, 2021 6:57 am

Convection finally firing near the surface circ. Guessing this is a TD by tomorrow's 5 AM.

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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#26 Postby wx98 » Thu Sep 16, 2021 10:01 am

AlphaToOmega wrote:Has the NHC seen the ASCAT runs?
https://i.postimg.cc/fLC7Zg8w/ascat-96-L-barb-202109160408.png

They’ve probably seen a lot more than you have :lol:
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#27 Postby ScottNAtlanta » Thu Sep 16, 2021 10:50 am

Looking at sat today and there is broad turning just SE of NC, but there is limited convection. I still don't think this develops. The shear is screaming just to the north of it. I think the remnants of Nicholas threw a wrench in the mix
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#28 Postby Teban54 » Thu Sep 16, 2021 11:31 am

So in just a few days, 96L went from future Sam to future Rose, to future Peter, and now to future Odette.

And we don't even know if it will get a name after all.

:lol:
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#29 Postby Sciencerocks » Thu Sep 16, 2021 12:06 pm

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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#30 Postby Hurricaneman » Thu Sep 16, 2021 12:13 pm

Teban54 wrote:So in just a few days, 96L went from future Sam to future Rose, to future Peter, and now to future Odette.

And we don't even know if it will get a name after all.

:lol:


Might have to do with the -CCKW and mjo is unfavorable
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#31 Postby Hammy » Thu Sep 16, 2021 4:13 pm

Teban54 wrote:So in just a few days, 96L went from future Sam to future Rose, to future Peter, and now to future Odette.

And we don't even know if it will get a name after all.

:lol:


I'm betting on no development at this point. Models are trending more and more towards whatever forms being completely frontal by then.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#32 Postby Ubuntwo » Thu Sep 16, 2021 7:52 pm

Current situation:
Image

The surface low has gradually become better defined through the day. Modeling has downshear convection consolidating and eventually forming another eddy, which should become deeper than the one we are currently tracking.

Whatever comes of this will be quite sheared, borderline subtropical. Riding the boundary between classifiable and not.

Things become more interesting if the ridge builds back in (4-5 days out). A possible solution as a small tropical cyclone embedded within the broader extratropical low:

Image

We shall see!
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#33 Postby wx98 » Thu Sep 16, 2021 9:57 pm

Ubuntwo wrote:Current situation:
https://i.imgur.com/7wzbZuf.gif

The surface low has gradually become better defined through the day. Modeling has downshear convection consolidating and eventually forming another eddy, which should become deeper than the one we are currently tracking.

Whatever comes of this will be quite sheared, borderline subtropical. Riding the boundary between classifiable and not.

Things become more interesting if the ridge builds back in (4-5 days out). A possible solution as a small tropical cyclone embedded within the broader extratropical low:

https://i.imgur.com/xdu0WDs.png

We shall see!


Perfect Storm (would’ve been Henri) 1991? I think that was the same situation.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#34 Postby ScottNAtlanta » Thu Sep 16, 2021 11:48 pm

wx98 wrote:
Ubuntwo wrote:Current situation:
https://i.imgur.com/7wzbZuf.gif

The surface low has gradually become better defined through the day. Modeling has downshear convection consolidating and eventually forming another eddy, which should become deeper than the one we are currently tracking.

Whatever comes of this will be quite sheared, borderline subtropical. Riding the boundary between classifiable and not.

Things become more interesting if the ridge builds back in (4-5 days out). A possible solution as a small tropical cyclone embedded within the broader extratropical low:

https://i.imgur.com/xdu0WDs.png

We shall see!


Perfect Storm (would’ve been Henri) 1991? I think that was the same situation.


I believe that was Grace
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#35 Postby Ubuntwo » Fri Sep 17, 2021 12:52 am

Diurnal convection starting to pop now. The weak circulation has elongated into the convection. Lets see if it manages to pinch off a tighter circ and establish TC dynamics. As it stands right now, this is not too far from classification.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#36 Postby Ubuntwo » Fri Sep 17, 2021 3:43 am

Surface rotation has continued elongating into the convection. In green is the currently tracked low. Optimal setup for reformations.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#37 Postby aspen » Fri Sep 17, 2021 6:05 am

I might get a couple of stray showers from 96L’s outer bands today.

This is the best it has looked so far…which isn’t saying much lol.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#38 Postby wx98 » Fri Sep 17, 2021 7:03 am

ScottNAtlanta wrote:
wx98 wrote:
Ubuntwo wrote:Current situation:
https://i.imgur.com/7wzbZuf.gif

The surface low has gradually become better defined through the day. Modeling has downshear convection consolidating and eventually forming another eddy, which should become deeper than the one we are currently tracking.

Whatever comes of this will be quite sheared, borderline subtropical. Riding the boundary between classifiable and not.

Things become more interesting if the ridge builds back in (4-5 days out). A possible solution as a small tropical cyclone embedded within the broader extratropical low:

https://i.imgur.com/xdu0WDs.png

We shall see!


Perfect Storm (would’ve been Henri) 1991? I think that was the same situation.


I believe that was Grace


Grace was absorbed by the extratropical low. The unnamed hurricane formed within it.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#39 Postby Category5Kaiju » Fri Sep 17, 2021 10:42 am

96L looks pretty impressive now, arguably the most it has ever has been. At this point a brief TS cannot be ruled out, imho
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#40 Postby Ubuntwo » Fri Sep 17, 2021 11:08 am

Category5Kaiju wrote:96L looks pretty impressive now, arguably the most it has ever has been. At this point a brief TS cannot be ruled out, imho

A brief TS is the general line of thinking, no?
It looks like a more concentrated low has formed under that continuously firing hot tower. Remains to be seen whether it’s a transient eddy. Recon will be telling.
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