ATL: ODETTE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Woofde
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Re: RE: Re: ATL: ODETTE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#81 Postby Woofde » Sat Sep 18, 2021 11:59 am

cheezyWXguy wrote:There’s like 4 eddies rotating around a central gyre, all naked with convection severely displaced. Yeesh, are we sure this is even tropical/subtropical?
It's definitely a TS, just sheared and ugly
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Re: ATL: ODETTE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#82 Postby wxman57 » Sat Sep 18, 2021 12:15 pm

Very sheared tropical cyclones often have a broad, open low center with multiple vortices rotating around. I think it will reach its highest intensity on Monday as the shear drops off, it detaches from the front, and it drifts south. I would classify it as a subtropical cyclone at that point - possibly tropical. Convection will likely build over the center as it drifts southward Mon/Tue.
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Re: ATL: ODETTE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#83 Postby Sciencerocks » Sat Sep 18, 2021 3:07 pm

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Re: ATL: ODETTE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#84 Postby Ubuntwo » Sat Sep 18, 2021 3:36 pm

Extratropical on the 18z best track.
AL, 15, 2021091818, , BEST, 0, 387N, 661W, 40, 1001, EX, 34, NEQ, 180, 150, 180, 120, 1016, 300, 120, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, ODETTE, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 033,
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Re: ATL: ODETTE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#85 Postby aspen » Sat Sep 18, 2021 3:38 pm

Ubuntwo wrote:Extratropical on the 18z best track.
AL, 15, 2021091818, , BEST, 0, 387N, 661W, 40, 1001, EX, 34, NEQ, 180, 150, 180, 120, 1016, 300, 120, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, ODETTE, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 033,

Good riddance.
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Re: ATL: ODETTE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#86 Postby zhukm29 » Sat Sep 18, 2021 3:57 pm

I don't doubt that Odette was a TC for a brief period of its life, but post analysis will probably move up extratropical transition a bit earlier in time. There are a few models that are hinting that Odette could redevelop if it shifts southward in the middle of next week, so that's something to keep an eye out on. The Atlantic has produced several storms that meandered through the subtropics during this time of year, so it's not too farfetched a possibility.
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Re: ATL: ODETTE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#87 Postby wxman57 » Sat Sep 18, 2021 7:19 pm

aspen wrote:
Ubuntwo wrote:Extratropical on the 18z best track.
AL, 15, 2021091818, , BEST, 0, 387N, 661W, 40, 1001, EX, 34, NEQ, 180, 150, 180, 120, 1016, 300, 120, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, ODETTE, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 033,

Good riddance.


Don't be so sure. I think it will peak on Monday/Tuesday, and NHC might resume advisories as a subtropical storm. Could even become tropical.
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Re: ATL: ODETTE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#88 Postby Hammy » Sun Sep 19, 2021 4:44 am

Kind of surprising they're not mentioning this in the outlooks given there's trending model support for redevelopment.
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Re: ATL: ODETTE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#89 Postby wxman57 » Sun Sep 19, 2021 9:01 am

Odette is the best-looking system in the basin today.
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Re: ATL: ODETTE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#90 Postby Ubuntwo » Sun Sep 19, 2021 9:05 am

Papin explicitly mentions redevelopment. Unsure why it's not on the TWO?
 https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1439590564731576327


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Re: ATL: ODETTE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#91 Postby tolakram » Sun Sep 19, 2021 10:01 am

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Re: ATL: ODETTE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#92 Postby AlphaToOmega » Sun Sep 19, 2021 12:53 pm

A gale force non-tropical low pressure system, the remnants of
Odette, is located a few hundred miles south of Newfoundland. This
system could acquire some subtropical or tropical characteristics
by the middle of this week as it moves slowly eastward and then
southeastward over warmer waters across the north-central Atlantic
Ocean. Additional information on this system, including storm
warnings, can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the
National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.
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Re: ATL: ODETTE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#93 Postby AlphaToOmega » Mon Sep 20, 2021 3:28 pm

2. A storm-force, non-tropical low pressure system, the remnants
of Odette, is located a few hundred miles southeast of
Newfoundland. This low could acquire some subtropical
characteristics by the middle of this week as it moves slowly
southeastward over warmer waters across the north-central Atlantic
Ocean before moving northward over cooler waters over the weekend.
Additional information on this system, including storm warnings, can
be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather
Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.
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Re: ATL: ODETTE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#94 Postby Extratropical94 » Tue Sep 21, 2021 6:48 am

A storm-force, non-tropical low pressure system, the remnants of
Odette, is located about 700 miles west-northwest of the westernmost
Azores. This low could acquire some subtropical characteristics over
marginally warm waters during the next few days while it executes a
small cyclonic loop over the north-central Atlantic Ocean. However,
by the end of the week, this system is expected to encounter more
hostile environmental conditions. Additional information on this
system, including storm warnings, can be found in High Seas
Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.
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Re: ATL: ODETTE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#95 Postby Teban54 » Wed Sep 22, 2021 1:01 pm

Poor ex-Odette isn't getting any attention, but:
2. A gale-force, non-tropical low pressure system, the remnants of
Odette, is located more than 500 miles west-northwest of the
westernmost Azores. This low is beginning to develop more
concentrated shower activity and could become a subtropical or
tropical cyclone as it moves slowly across marginally warm waters
over the north-central Atlantic Ocean during the next several days.
However, by the weekend, this system is expected to move south into
an environment of strong upper-level winds. Additional information
on this system, including gale warnings, can be found in High Seas
Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.
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Re: ATL: ODETTE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#96 Postby AnnularCane » Wed Sep 22, 2021 1:09 pm

Hopefully she'll get some attention if she comes back because she'll deserve it. 8-)
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Re: ATL: ODETTE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#97 Postby Sciencerocks » Wed Sep 22, 2021 2:51 pm

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Re: ATL: ODETTE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#98 Postby Sciencerocks » Wed Sep 22, 2021 11:07 pm

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Re: ATL: ODETTE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#99 Postby Sciencerocks » Thu Sep 23, 2021 12:50 am

A gale-force, non-tropical low pressure system, the remnants of
Odette, is located about 600 miles west-northwest of the westernmost
Azores. Showers and thunderstorms have increased a little near the
low, and it could become a subtropical or tropical cyclone while it
moves generally southward over marginally warmer waters during the
next couple of days. Strong upper-level winds are expected to
develop over the system this weekend, which should limit its
development. Additional information on this system, including gale
warnings, can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National
Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

&&
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Re: ATL: ODETTE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#100 Postby Teban54 » Thu Sep 23, 2021 12:52 am

Hope this redevelops to settle thr doubts about whether it should have been named.
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