ATL: ROSE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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ATL: ROSE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#1 Postby Nancy Smar » Sat Sep 18, 2021 12:33 am

AL, 97, 2021091800, , BEST, 0, 90N, 248W, 25, 1008, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 200, 70, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 036,

https://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/btk/
Last edited by Nancy Smar on Sat Sep 18, 2021 12:59 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#2 Postby Nancy Smar » Sat Sep 18, 2021 12:51 am

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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#3 Postby ouragans » Sat Sep 18, 2021 5:29 am

Invest 97L
As of 06:00 UTC Sep 18, 2021:

Location: 9.2°N 25.2°W
Maximum Winds: 25 kt Gusts: N/A
Minimum Central Pressure: 1008 mb
Environmental Pressure: N/A
Radius of Circulation: N/A
Radius of Maximum wind: 70 nm
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#4 Postby aspen » Sat Sep 18, 2021 6:59 am

This looks decent on satellite, it has a few days over acceptable SSTs, and the HWRF likes it. I know the HWRF can be way too aggressive with systems this early in development, but it actually shows 97L getting stronger than 95L.

Odds are this’ll end up as a Lisa ‘16 clone. Pretty much the same track and time of year.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#5 Postby tolakram » Sat Sep 18, 2021 8:15 am

aspen wrote:This looks decent on satellite, it has a few days over acceptable SSTs, and the HWRF likes it. I know the HWRF can be way too aggressive with systems this early in development, but it actually shows 97L getting stronger than 95L.

Odds are this’ll end up as a Lisa ‘16 clone. Pretty much the same track and time of year.


HWRF has only been wrong for every run on 95L so far. Track record is horrendous. :) On the positive side this is already over water, at least.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#6 Postby zzh » Sat Sep 18, 2021 8:47 am

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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#7 Postby Yellow Evan » Sat Sep 18, 2021 9:37 am

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Classifiable.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#8 Postby ElectricStorm » Sat Sep 18, 2021 9:51 am

Looks like it's just about there. This will likely steal Peter from 95L
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#9 Postby AnnularCane » Sat Sep 18, 2021 9:54 am

Weather Dude wrote:Looks like it's just about there. This will likely steal Peter from 95L



That would be like a classic underdog story. :lol:
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#10 Postby Sciencerocks » Sat Sep 18, 2021 11:12 am

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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#11 Postby aspen » Sat Sep 18, 2021 12:28 pm

12z HWRF is even stronger…imagine if this becomes stronger than 95L, the wave that has been tracked for a week and was modeled to become a long-duration hurricane.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#12 Postby TallyTracker » Sat Sep 18, 2021 12:45 pm

Wow! This one twisted up fast! Did not see that coming! Love how the tropics can surprise…well these types of surprises at least! lol Not the “I thought I was getting a Cat 1 but got a Cat 5 instead”. :)
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#13 Postby aspen » Sat Sep 18, 2021 2:32 pm

There’s a big burst of convection pulsing over where the LLC probably is. This is most likely a TC by now. I’m surprised the NHC only raised 97L’s odds to 50/50 despite that ASCAT pass from earlier.

According to the HWRF, UL winds will be under 20 kt and roughly in the same direction as the storm’s motion until late Monday/early Tuesday, meaning upper-level shear should be quite low and these UL winds should help ventilate them system. The point where UL winds switch from south-to-north to west-to-east and increase to 30-40 kt will be when 97L crosses into sub-26C waters. I think a hurricane is not impossible with this setup.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#14 Postby Sciencerocks » Sat Sep 18, 2021 3:12 pm

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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#15 Postby zhukm29 » Sat Sep 18, 2021 3:46 pm

aspen wrote:There’s a big burst of convection pulsing over where the LLC probably is. This is most likely a TC by now. I’m surprised the NHC only raised 97L’s odds to 50/50 despite that ASCAT pass from earlier.

According to the HWRF, UL winds will be under 20 kt and roughly in the same direction as the storm’s motion until late Monday/early Tuesday, meaning upper-level shear should be quite low and these UL winds should help ventilate them system. The point where UL winds switch from south-to-north to west-to-east and increase to 30-40 kt will be when 97L crosses into sub-26C waters. I think a hurricane is not impossible with this setup.


Agreed that this could one could overachieve - convection is blowing up over the center, and development looks to have commenced earlier than expected (honestly, it's classifiable right now especially with the ASCAT earlier). Gives it a lot more time to take advantage of reasonably favorable conditions in the next few days; 50/50 seems way too low for this system.

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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#16 Postby InfernoFlameCat » Sat Sep 18, 2021 3:55 pm

If these both get named at the same time, I imagine that 97L will be designated as Rose and 95L as Peter. Unless of course one or both end up being a depression.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#17 Postby zhukm29 » Sat Sep 18, 2021 4:00 pm

InfernoFlameCat wrote:If these both get named at the same time, I imagine that 97L will be designated as Rose and 95L as Peter. Unless of course one or both end up being a depression.


I'm assuming all else equal, and both storms are nameable at the exact same time, the NHC will designate in invest number order, so 95L will get Peter and 97L will get Rose. Definitely an interesting dilemma! I remember this happened with Olga and Pablo in 2019, where 17L got Olga and 18L got Pablo.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#18 Postby zhukm29 » Sat Sep 18, 2021 4:05 pm

Several mets on Twitter seem to agree that this is likely a TC already - with the earlier ASCAT showing 35kt wind barbs and a well-defined center, and considering how much the storm has improved since then, I can't seem to think of any reason why this hasn't been classified. Hopefully chances will be upped during 8 PM TWO.

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1439317584231477251




 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1439333309197127682


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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#19 Postby InfernoFlameCat » Sat Sep 18, 2021 4:08 pm

They (NHC) might make a special advisory for this one. Looks pretty good right now.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#20 Postby aspen » Sat Sep 18, 2021 4:29 pm

It’s strange seeing how they upgraded 96L to a TS, but are being quite hesitant about 95L and especially 97L. That earlier ASCAT pass was enough to make it a TD.
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