ATL: SAM - Remnants - Discussion

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DioBrando
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Re: ATL: SAM - Hurricane - Discussion

#2121 Postby DioBrando » Sun Oct 03, 2021 3:47 pm

WiscoWx02 wrote:
DioBrando wrote:
WiscoWx02 wrote:
That would be the ultimate 2021 troll :lol:
Seriously though, what a performance Sam is still displaying. Eye clearing out, deep convection around the entire eye...crazy.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p9SQ3KtYbG0&t=476s
This is a video of Dr. Cowan discussing his research on how trough interaction aids tropical cyclones in some cases and I have heard a lot of chatter that trough interaction is responsible for Sam being able to maintain it's strength and structure as it has up to this point. Would 10/10 check this out. A lot of it went over my head but hey, extremely educational nonetheless and I'm sure a lot of people here would think so too.


Flashback to Humberto in 2019


Looking back at Humberto from 2019...definitely some trough interaction there. Levi was saying that the right entrance region of the jet stream/streak enables more outflow which strengthens the tropical cyclone and counteracts the negative impacts of shear that typically increases as you get closer to the trough. Zeta from last year is a beautiful example of this and is why it was able to reach cat 3 intensity over water that was too cold, increasing shear and fast forward motion.

Reckon major hurricanes off the coast of New York would become a reality soon?
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who can it be now
*du du du du du du*

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Re: ATL: SAM - Hurricane - Discussion

#2122 Postby aspen » Sun Oct 03, 2021 3:54 pm

I would’ve gone with 90-100kt at 5pm. The eye has continued to clear out with a smooth, symmetrical CDO of -60C convection — very similar to Epsilon at its 100 kt peak.
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Re: ATL: SAM - Hurricane - Discussion

#2123 Postby kevin » Sun Oct 03, 2021 3:55 pm

So close now... Sam is at 49.995 ACE. Only 1 advisory to go.
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Re: ATL: SAM - Hurricane - Discussion

#2124 Postby aspen » Sun Oct 03, 2021 4:20 pm

kevin wrote:So close now... Sam is at 49.995 ACE. Only 1 advisory to go.

On CSU’s page, Sam has reached 50.2 ACE, tying it within Matthew for the tenth highest ACE total for a single storm in the Atlantic. The discrepancy might be due to CSU including the 135kt/929mb peak.
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Re: ATL: SAM - Hurricane - Discussion

#2125 Postby abajan » Sun Oct 03, 2021 4:36 pm

First sentence of 5 p.m. NHC Forecast Discussion:
Sam is a resilient hurricane despite having just crossed the 26
degrees C isotherm. An eye remains readily apparent in satellite
imagery, while microwave images show a symmetrical concentric
eyewall structure.
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Re: ATL: SAM - Hurricane - Discussion

#2126 Postby cycloneye » Sun Oct 03, 2021 5:24 pm

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Re: ATL: SAM - Hurricane - Discussion

#2127 Postby MississippiWx » Sun Oct 03, 2021 5:28 pm

Sam looks like a major hurricane again. Beautiful storm.
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Re: ATL: SAM - Hurricane - Discussion

#2128 Postby aspen » Sun Oct 03, 2021 6:17 pm

Sam has probably been about 90-100 kt for the last 12 hours, but the outer eyewall is becoming more pronounced and should induce weakening now that Sam is in sub-26C SSTs.
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Re: ATL: SAM - Hurricane - Discussion

#2129 Postby InfernoFlameCat » Sun Oct 03, 2021 6:19 pm

aspen wrote:Sam has probably been about 90-100 kt for the last 12 hours, but the outer eyewall is becoming more pronounced and should induce weakening now that Sam is in sub-26C SSTs.

Or the outer eyewall may shield the inner one and decay while the inner eyewall survives off the outer eyewall's energy.
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Re: ATL: SAM - Hurricane - Discussion

#2130 Postby aspen » Sun Oct 03, 2021 7:49 pm

Back up to 90 kt on the 00z best track, because weakening due to sub-26C SSTs is for suckers.
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Re: ATL: SAM - Hurricane - Discussion

#2131 Postby cheezyWXguy » Sun Oct 03, 2021 8:00 pm

I like how there’s basically a mini hurricane inside a giant nearly annular donut
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Re: ATL: SAM - Hurricane - Discussion

#2132 Postby Sciencerocks » Sun Oct 03, 2021 9:21 pm

Image
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Re: ATL: SAM - Hurricane - Discussion

#2133 Postby cycloneye » Sun Oct 03, 2021 9:37 pm

This means at post season, they may raise intensity.

Given the
concentric eyewalls, the initial wind speed is conservatively
raised to 90 kt, but it could be higher.
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Re: ATL: SAM - Hurricane - Discussion

#2134 Postby InfernoFlameCat » Sun Oct 03, 2021 9:47 pm

Sam is the dream hurricane. It produced over 50 ACE, was possibly a Cat 5 over waters, never really affected anything, has transitioned into a powerful system capable of intensifying over sub 26c temperatures, and may peak as a sub 940 ex-tropical system. It also is very beautiful and recovered from what appeared to be an inner core collapse OVER 26C temperatures!
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Re: ATL: SAM - Hurricane - Discussion

#2135 Postby Teban54 » Sun Oct 03, 2021 9:58 pm

Such a beauty.

At this point I have said this for at least the third time.
Image
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Re: ATL: SAM - Hurricane - Discussion

#2136 Postby Hammy » Sun Oct 03, 2021 10:13 pm

Image

Sam with the East Coast in view--how often do you see that well defined a hurricane at that latitude?
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Re: ATL: SAM - Hurricane - Discussion

#2137 Postby WiscoWx02 » Sun Oct 03, 2021 10:46 pm

Honestly think Sam not decaying at all could be the Atlantics way of saying "enjoy this, because Sam is the last one of the year" :lol:
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Re: ATL: SAM - Hurricane - Discussion

#2138 Postby abajan » Sun Oct 03, 2021 10:59 pm

So, I presume that's the northern boundary of the forecast area and not the edge of the earth? :lol:

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Re: ATL: SAM - Hurricane - Discussion

#2139 Postby storminabox » Mon Oct 04, 2021 1:08 am

Hammy wrote:https://i.imgur.com/d2i4Zkc.png

Sam with the East Coast in view--how often do you see that well defined a hurricane at that latitude?



I am amazed!
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Re: ATL: SAM - Hurricane - Discussion

#2140 Postby beoumont » Mon Oct 04, 2021 4:18 am

DioBrando wrote:

Reckon major hurricanes off the coast of New York would become a reality soon?


I believe they have been doing that since 1933:

Image
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List of 79 tropical cyclones intercepted by Richard Horodner:
http://www.canebeard.com/page/page/572246.htm


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