ATL: SAM - Remnants - Discussion

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Re: ATL: SAM - Hurricane - Discussion

#2161 Postby FireRat » Tue Oct 05, 2021 1:01 am

Just read that Sam is tied with Edouard 1996 for 4th most consecutive days as a major hurricane! Truly remarkable!
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Re: ATL: SAM - Hurricane - Discussion

#2162 Postby Extratropical94 » Tue Oct 05, 2021 2:38 am

Farewell Sam!

53.75 ACE
12.00 TS days
11.00 hurricane days
9.75 cat 2 days
7.75 major hurricane days
6.75 cat 4 days

AL, 18, 2021100506, , BEST, 0, 500N, 393W, 70, 965, EX, 34, NEQ, 240, 270, 400, 300, 1012, 600, 60, 85, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, SAM, D, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 038,
AL, 18, 2021100506, , BEST, 0, 500N, 393W, 70, 965, EX, 50, NEQ, 120, 150, 150, 60, 1012, 600, 60, 85, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, SAM, D, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 038,
AL, 18, 2021100506, , BEST, 0, 500N, 393W, 70, 965, EX, 64, NEQ, 0, 70, 70, 0, 1012, 600, 60, 85, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, SAM, D, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 038,
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Re: ATL: SAM - Remnants - Discussion

#2163 Postby aspen » Tue Oct 05, 2021 7:32 am

Sam-I-am is now Sam-I-am-not.

That was fun to track, except last Sunday’s infuriating recon schedule. Also, Sam is currently the strongest storm of the satellite era to not get a Wikipedia article.
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Re: ATL: SAM - Remnants - Discussion

#2164 Postby cycloneye » Tue Oct 05, 2021 8:08 am

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Re: ATL: SAM - Remnants - Discussion

#2165 Postby WiscoWx02 » Tue Oct 05, 2021 9:22 am

And that folks, in my opinion, concludes the 2021 Atlantic hurricane season. Going out with a BANG!!!!
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Re: ATL: SAM - Remnants - Discussion

#2166 Postby ElectricStorm » Tue Oct 05, 2021 9:56 am

WiscoWx02 wrote:And that folks, in my opinion, concludes the 2021 Atlantic hurricane season. Going out with a BANG!!!!

Season cancel on Oct 5... This is likely going to age extremely poorly
Last edited by ElectricStorm on Tue Oct 05, 2021 10:10 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: SAM - Remnants - Discussion

#2167 Postby Iceresistance » Tue Oct 05, 2021 10:00 am

Weather Dude wrote:
WiscoWx02 wrote:And that folks, in my opinion, concludes the 2021 Atlantic hurricane season. Going out with a BANG!!!!

Season cancel on Oct 4... This is likely going to age extremely poorly


Maybe the end of the Cape Verde Hurricane season? I know that the Caribbean might develop storms through November/December . . .
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Re: ATL: SAM - Remnants - Discussion

#2168 Postby WiscoWx02 » Tue Oct 05, 2021 10:44 am

Weather Dude wrote:
WiscoWx02 wrote:And that folks, in my opinion, concludes the 2021 Atlantic hurricane season. Going out with a BANG!!!!

Season cancel on Oct 5... This is likely going to age extremely poorly


Can't cancel a season that has already been one hell of one, curtsey of Elsa, Grace, Henri, Ida, Larry, Nicholas, and Sam :P :lol:
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Re: ATL: SAM - Remnants - Discussion

#2169 Postby InfernoFlameCat » Tue Oct 05, 2021 11:12 am

WiscoWx02 wrote:
Weather Dude wrote:
WiscoWx02 wrote:And that folks, in my opinion, concludes the 2021 Atlantic hurricane season. Going out with a BANG!!!!

Season cancel on Oct 5... This is likely going to age extremely poorly


Can't cancel a season that has already been one hell of one, curtsey of Elsa, Grace, Henri, Ida, Larry, Nicholas, and Sam :P :lol:

This season is FAR from over.
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Re: ATL: SAM - Remnants - Discussion

#2170 Postby aspen » Tue Oct 05, 2021 11:19 am

I’m interested to see what CrazyC83’s proposed best track will be like and what changes he’d make.
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Re: ATL: SAM - Remnants - Discussion

#2171 Postby tomatkins » Tue Oct 05, 2021 11:27 am


Doesnt start with I, so of course it didnt crack the Mount Rushmore of Atlantic ACE champs.
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Re: ATL: SAM - Remnants - Discussion

#2172 Postby WiscoWx02 » Tue Oct 05, 2021 12:43 pm

tomatkins wrote:

Doesnt start with I, so of course it didnt crack the Mount Rushmore of Atlantic ACE champs.


All hail the dreaded I name...that's honestly hilarious in a way. It's always the I name..... :lol:
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Re: ATL: SAM - Remnants - Discussion

#2173 Postby ElectricStorm » Tue Oct 05, 2021 1:45 pm

This was certainly one of my all time favorite Atlantic storms to track. What a legend

Way to go Sam... See you again in 2027, if it's active enough :lol:
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Re: ATL: SAM - Remnants - Discussion

#2174 Postby cycloneye » Tue Oct 05, 2021 5:51 pm

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Re: ATL: SAM - Remnants - Discussion

#2175 Postby KirbyDude25 » Tue Oct 05, 2021 6:03 pm

Weather Dude wrote:This was certainly one of my all time favorite Atlantic storms to track. What a legend

Way to go Sam... See you again in 2027, if it's active enough :lol:

I agree completely! On a related note, where can I get a good image of Hurricane Sam at its peak(s)? I'd like to use it as my avatar.
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Re: ATL: SAM - Remnants - Discussion

#2176 Postby Ubuntwo » Tue Oct 05, 2021 6:06 pm

KirbyDude25 wrote:
Weather Dude wrote:This was certainly one of my all time favorite Atlantic storms to track. What a legend

Way to go Sam... See you again in 2027, if it's active enough :lol:

I agree completely! On a related note, where can I get a good image of Hurricane Sam at its peak(s)? I'd like to use it as my avatar.

Here is one I saved.
Image

A loop. This is when Sam's eye was its driest.
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Re: ATL: SAM - Remnants - Discussion

#2177 Postby KirbyDude25 » Tue Oct 05, 2021 6:39 pm

Ubuntwo wrote:
KirbyDude25 wrote:
Weather Dude wrote:This was certainly one of my all time favorite Atlantic storms to track. What a legend

Way to go Sam... See you again in 2027, if it's active enough :lol:

I agree completely! On a related note, where can I get a good image of Hurricane Sam at its peak(s)? I'd like to use it as my avatar.

Here is one I saved.
https://i.imgur.com/AMQzfND.jpg

A loop. This is when Sam's eye was its driest.
https://imgur.com/xo3pjJE

Thanks! It's my avatar now :D
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Re: ATL: SAM - Remnants - Discussion

#2178 Postby AnnularCane » Tue Oct 05, 2021 6:47 pm




Sam is still showing off. :lol:
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Re: ATL: SAM - Remnants - Discussion

#2179 Postby CrazyC83 » Wed Oct 06, 2021 1:22 am

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.


Here is my thinking on the BT for Sam.

AL182021, SAM, 58,
20210921, 1800, , LO, 9.3N, 28.6W, 25, 1011,
20210922, 0000, , LO, 9.5N, 29.5W, 30, 1010,
20210922, 0600, , LO, 9.7N, 30.5W, 35, 1008,
20210922, 1200, , LO, 9.9N, 31.6W, 35, 1008,
20210922, 1800, , TS, 10.1N, 33.0W, 35, 1008,
20210923, 0000, , TS, 10.2N, 34.3W, 40, 1007,
20210923, 0600, , TS, 10.4N, 35.8W, 45, 1005,
20210923, 1200, , TS, 10.6N, 37.4W, 50, 1003,
20210923, 1800, , TS, 10.9N, 38.9W, 55, 1001,
20210924, 0000, , TS, 11.1N, 40.3W, 60, 999,
20210924, 0600, , HU, 11.4N, 41.7W, 65, 997,
20210924, 1200, , HU, 11.6N, 43.1W, 70, 994,
20210924, 1800, , HU, 11.9N, 44.3W, 75, 991,
20210925, 0000, , HU, 12.3N, 45.4W, 85, 984,
20210925, 0600, , HU, 12.6N, 46.3W, 95, 976,
20210925, 1200, , HU, 12.8N, 47.2W, 105, 966,
20210925, 1800, , HU, 13.1N, 48.1W, 115, 954,
20210926, 0000, , HU, 13.4N, 48.7W, 125, 943,
20210926, 0600, , HU, 13.7N, 49.4W, 130, 939,
20210926, 1200, , HU, 13.9N, 50.0W, 135, 931,
20210926, 1800, , HU, 14.1N, 50.3W, 135, 927,
20210927, 0000, , HU, 14.5N, 50.6W, 125, 941,
20210927, 0600, , HU, 15.0N, 51.1W, 115, 952,
20210927, 1200, , HU, 15.4N, 51.7W, 100, 965,
20210927, 1800, , HU, 15.9N, 52.3W, 105, 958,
20210928, 0000, , HU, 16.5N, 52.9W, 110, 955,
20210928, 0600, , HU, 17.0N, 53.5W, 115, 953,
20210928, 1200, , HU, 17.3N, 54.1W, 120, 950,
20210928, 1800, , HU, 17.7N, 54.7W, 120, 947,
20210929, 0000, , HU, 18.1N, 55.3W, 115, 949,
20210929, 0600, , HU, 18.6N, 55.9W, 110, 951,
20210929, 1200, , HU, 19.1N, 56.6W, 110, 953,
20210929, 1800, , HU, 19.7N, 57.3W, 115, 945,
20210930, 0000, , HU, 20.3N, 58.0W, 120, 940,
20210930, 0600, , HU, 21.0N, 58.8W, 125, 937,
20210930, 1200, , HU, 22.0N, 59.6W, 125, 938,
20210930, 1800, , HU, 23.0N, 60.4W, 125, 939,
20211001, 0000, , HU, 24.3N, 61.0W, 130, 936,
20211001, 0600, , HU, 25.8N, 61.6W, 135, 934,
20211001, 1200, , HU, 27.6N, 61.9W, 135, 932,
20211001, 1800, , HU, 29.2N, 61.9W, 130, 936,
20211002, 0000, , HU, 30.7N, 61.5W, 125, 941,
20211002, 0600, , HU, 32.1N, 61.0W, 120, 944,
20211002, 1200, , HU, 33.4N, 59.9W, 110, 949,
20211002, 1800, , HU, 34.8N, 58.7W, 105, 952,
20211003, 0000, , HU, 35.9N, 57.7W, 95, 956,
20211003, 0600, , HU, 36.7N, 56.6W, 85, 963,
20211003, 1200, , HU, 37.3N, 55.4W, 85, 961,
20211003, 1800, , HU, 38.0N, 53.8W, 90, 955,
20211004, 0000, , HU, 38.7N, 52.2W, 100, 947,
20211004, 0600, , HU, 39.8N, 49.9W, 95, 950,
20211004, 1200, , HU, 41.4N, 47.1W, 90, 952,
20211004, 1800, , HU, 43.8N, 43.6W, 80, 956,
20211005, 0000, , HU, 46.3N, 40.8W, 75, 957,
20211005, 0600, , EX, 49.7N, 39.6W, 70, 958,
20211005, 1200, , EX, 51.5N, 39.5W, 70, 956,
20211005, 1800, , EX, 51.0N, 39.3W, 75, 951,
20211006, 0000, , EX, 50.3N, 38.8W, 70, 955,
20211006, 0600, , EX, 49.4N, 36.9W, 65, 962,

* Genesis is basically unchanged. However, due to ASCAT passes and Dvorak readings at the time, I believe it was immediately a tropical storm.

* The early life of Sam is basically unchanged as well, other than a few minor tweaks to smooth things out.

* The first Recon flight supported the Dvorak intensity at the time (125 kt - T6.5) hence I am also assuming that, until the first major ERC (after that time) the satellite intensities were accurate.

* The initial peak of 135 kt (first of two such peaks) I believe was at 18Z on September 26. An argument could be made for 140 kt, although I don't see conclusive enough data to support going that high. The minimum pressure, which I analyzed at 927 mb, I believe occurred just before Recon got there and confirmed 929 mb at about 2130Z (with winds supporting 130 kt at the time based on 140 kt FL winds and SFMR of 133 kt but with a slightly degraded satellite).

* The first ERC meant significant structural changes took place. There was a major drop in pressure (from 927 mb to 965 mb in 18 hours) with winds I believe falling to 100 kt. After that, Recon consistently found winds stronger than the satellite signature suggested.

* Fluctuations took place from September 27 to 30, but it remained a major hurricane throughout.

* A second strengthening took place on October 1. At about 0600Z, the FL winds were 147 kt, and the next flight around 1500Z, they were 152 kt. SFMR readings peaked around 128 kt just before that 152 kt reading. All that lends itself to a second peak of 135 kt. Slow weakening followed, but it remained a major hurricane on October 2.

* After further weakening, a final strengthening episode occurred late on October 3. Discussions suggested that Sam was over a warm eddy and very warm water for its latitude. Dvorak estimates were around T5.0-5.5 and given the earlier trends, I believe the high end. That means, at 38.7N, I think Sam (briefly) became a major hurricane once again at 00Z on October 4 with 100 kt winds.

* The extratropical track is based on the movement relative to the trough it absorbed.
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