ATL: SAM - Remnants - Discussion

[AubreyStorm]

Has it taken a temporary west jog?

Looks like completely due west right now.

[kevin]

Looks like all those models that kept Sam weak in the short term are busting really hard right now. My question is if anyone knows why they kept Sam so weak. It's clear that Sam is in the best possible conditions for RI (high SSTs, low shear, good structure) so what kept them from bombing it out like it's clearly doing right now?

[Yellow Evan]

Why is the NHC or well John Cangialosi not factoring in ADT at all in its estimate or the rapid improvement in satellite presentation since 6z???

[kevin]

Why is the NHC or well John Cangialosi not factoring in ADT at all in its estimate or the rapid improvement in satellite presentation since 6z???

Their 5am AST 95 kt estimate is based on the 06z best track. And yes you could argue that they could've/should've already gone with at least 100-105 kt based on the improvement since then, but I guess they're just sitting this one out for a few hours to see whether the RI is leveling off or is still ongoing (I suspect the latter will be the case). The precise intensity at each hour can be figured out in post-analysis. Even though I do agree with you, this is way stronger than 95 kt. I think the next update will be 105 kt at the very least.

[PavelGaborik10]

Man the WPac storms are on a totally different level. We have two intensifying canes at the same time but Mindulle can eat Sam alive with Such RI, while Sam is powering up "gracefully".

Sam is literally exploding into a category 4+ hurricane as I type this.

[Shell Mound]

Has it taken a temporary west jog?

Looks like completely due west right now.

https://i.ibb.co/WV274f8/goes16-ir-18-L-202109250035.gif

Actually, it looks to be heading WNW in most of the frames. As soon as convection began building around the eye, it suddenly lurched WNW and maintained a steady heading while doing so. This should offer a clue as to Sam’s future fate were it to continue deepening as explosively as it has been. Ridging is clearly not sufficiently strong as to prevent Sam from quickly heading WNW and then NW as soon as the latter deepens to any meaningful degree. Given that the strongest models have consistently shown Sam heading OTS, Sam’s faster-than-expected (E)RI only bolsters the proverbial “bears’” case for an OTS path, missing the Islands and possibly Bermuda altogether.

[Shell Mound]

Breathtaking stadium effect incoming “by the dawn’s early light”...both IR and Dvorak supporting ~125 kt currently.

[grapealcoholic]

Wow.

[kevin]

Wow, I think they'll go with 110-115 but tbh I wouldn't blame them if in a few hours they'll just jump straight to 120 kt and skip cat 3 entirely. We were all asking ourselves where the true MDR monster was, almost a requirement for any memorable extremely active season. We thought it could be Larry, but that storm (while impressive, especially its huge eye) underperformed a bit in terms of intensity. But it looks like we got our answer with Sam...

[Shell Mound]

Wow.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/adt/18LP.GIF

I think (E)RI is about to end shortly. WV imagery and CIMSS show outflow becoming restricted in the southwestern quadrant, as a deepening TUTT amplifies well to the northeast of the hurricane. The deepest convection is currently restricted to the western semicircle, so the white ring may not be able to wrap itself around the eye, thus confining the warm medium grey to a limited area. Instantaneous satellite estimates support ~120 kt, but the constraints would likely force the NHC to side with a lower value. Given the small size of the eye, however, one could make a case for ~125 kt at this moment. From this point onward Sam will likely struggle with increasing southwesterly shear, despite an improvement in thermodynamics due to warmer SST and higher OHC/TCHP. Also, the increasingly prominent outer band in the southeastern quadrant, a possible product of residual dry air as well as increasing southwesterly shear, will likely “strangle” the inner core by denying it low-level inflow, thus promoting an EWRC soon.

[kevin]

Almost fully closed off its -70C ring.

[grapealcoholic]

 https://twitter.com/splillo/status/1441696100495228934

[grapealcoholic]

There's a southerly component to its movement the last few hours

[Shell Mound]

Wow.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/adt/18LP.GIF

I think (E)RI is about to end shortly. WV imagery and CIMSS show outflow becoming restricted in the southwestern quadrant, as a deepening TUTT amplifies well to the northeast of the hurricane. The deepest convection is currently restricted to the western semicircle, so the white ring may not be able to wrap itself around the eye, thus confining the warm medium grey to a limited area. Instantaneous satellite estimates support ~120 kt, but the constraints would likely force the NHC to side with a lower value. Given the small size of the eye, however, one could make a case for ~125 kt at this moment. From this point onward Sam will likely struggle with increasing southwesterly shear, despite an improvement in thermodynamics due to warmer SST and higher OHC/TCHP. Also, the increasingly prominent outer band in the southeastern quadrant, a possible product of residual dry air as well as increasing southwesterly shear, will likely “strangle” the inner core by denying it low-level inflow, thus promoting an EWRC soon.

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1441668427886718976

[AlphaToOmega]

One has to wonder if Hurricane Sam could make a landfall on the East Coast. There are very strong +SSTAs off the coast of Maine, which would support strong ridging there, leading to more potential East Coast landfalls.

[Yellow Evan]

 https://twitter.com/toddkimberlain/status/1441701566264668166

[Yellow Evan]

One has to wonder if Hurricane Sam could make a landfall on the East Coast. There are very strong +SSTAs off the coast of Maine, which would support strong ridging there, leading to more potential East Coast landfalls.

https://i.postimg.cc/43SFwS4P/crw-ssta-global.png
https://i.postimg.cc/Tw5NsJp6/ssta-global.png
https://i.postimg.cc/3JN0Qf3m/cdas-sflux-ssta-global-1.png

Ridging leads to warm ocean temperatures, yes, but the inverse is not true.

[cycloneye]

Great news as two missions will fly this afternoon, the NOAA P-3 research mission and Gonzo for upper atmosphere data that will be input to models.

Sam Recon Thread

[Yellow Evan]

On the brink of T6.5.

[aspen]

Wow, this did far better overnight than I thought it would. Easily a major right now. Hopefully the EWRC holds off long enough for the NOAA research mission to sample Sam’s peak intensity.