ATL: SAM - Models

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kevin
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Re: ATL: SAM - Models

#921 Postby kevin » Thu Sep 30, 2021 5:43 am

06z HMON initiated quite well with 932mb/125kt. It continues the deepening trend of Sam and gets it to 924mb at 18z, the time when the next recon arrives. Winds also fluctuate between 134 and 140 kt so according to HMON a low-end cat 5 is definitely possible. Not sure how useful these models are when we're pretty much nowcasting, but it'll be an interesting test.

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Re: ATL: SAM - Models

#922 Postby kevin » Thu Sep 30, 2021 6:02 am

06z HMON intensity readout for the next 48 hours. I included the times when recon should arrive at Sam. I've never really used models at such a short time-span so it'll be interesting to see if this verifies. HMON also indicates that the next 2 recons after the 18z (so at +24 and +36) might also still be able to find a cat 5 if the first one doesn't. HWRF is a bit more conservative and peaks at 132 kt and also slowly starts weakening Sam around +21/+24. I think a blend of HWRF and HMON is most likely, but I'd be all for HMON getting it right this time with an unexpected long cat 5 peak.

--- 06z HMON ---
HURRICANE SAM
PEAK; +39hr; 920.8MB; 140.4KT; CAT5

Time / Pressure (mbar) / Wind (kt)
00 / 932 / 125
03 / 928 / 124
06 / 929 / 128
09 / 925 / 140 <- cat 5
12 / 924 / 134 <- recon flight arrival
15 / 922 / 138
18 / 922 / 137
21 / 922 / 140
24 / 921 / 135 <- recon flight arrival
27 / 923 / 130
30 / 924 / 135
33 / 924 / 134
36 / 922 / 139 <- recon flight arrival
39 / 921 / 140
42 / 922 / 139
45 / 925 / 134
48 / 929 / 125 <- recon flight arrival
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Re: ATL: SAM - Models

#923 Postby aspen » Thu Sep 30, 2021 6:33 am

kevin wrote:06z HMON intensity readout for the next 48 hours. I included the times when recon should arrive at Sam. I've never really used models at such a short time-span so it'll be interesting to see if this verifies. HMON also indicates that the next 2 recons after the 18z (so at +24 and +36) might also still be able to find a cat 5 if the first one doesn't. HWRF is a bit more conservative and peaks at 132 kt and also slowly starts weakening Sam around +21/+24. I think a blend of HWRF and HMON is most likely, but I'd be all for HMON getting it right this time with an unexpected long cat 5 peak.

--- 06z HMON ---
HURRICANE SAM
PEAK; +39hr; 920.8MB; 140.4KT; CAT5

Time / Pressure (mbar) / Wind (kt)
00 / 932 / 125
03 / 928 / 124
06 / 929 / 128
09 / 925 / 140 <- cat 5
12 / 924 / 134 <- recon flight arrival
15 / 922 / 138
18 / 922 / 137
21 / 922 / 140
24 / 921 / 135 <- recon flight arrival
27 / 923 / 130
30 / 924 / 135
33 / 924 / 134
36 / 922 / 139 <- recon flight arrival
39 / 921 / 140
42 / 922 / 139
45 / 925 / 134
48 / 929 / 125 <- recon flight arrival

It would be awesome if that HMON forecast verifies and we’re able to get multiple flights into 135-140 kt Sam, but it’s going to have to really smooth out its CDO in 6-7 hours if that’s gonna verify.
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Re: ATL: SAM - Models

#924 Postby kevin » Thu Sep 30, 2021 6:37 am

aspen wrote:
kevin wrote:06z HMON intensity readout for the next 48 hours. I included the times when recon should arrive at Sam. I've never really used models at such a short time-span so it'll be interesting to see if this verifies. HMON also indicates that the next 2 recons after the 18z (so at +24 and +36) might also still be able to find a cat 5 if the first one doesn't. HWRF is a bit more conservative and peaks at 132 kt and also slowly starts weakening Sam around +21/+24. I think a blend of HWRF and HMON is most likely, but I'd be all for HMON getting it right this time with an unexpected long cat 5 peak.

--- 06z HMON ---
HURRICANE SAM
PEAK; +39hr; 920.8MB; 140.4KT; CAT5

Time / Pressure (mbar) / Wind (kt)
00 / 932 / 125
03 / 928 / 124
06 / 929 / 128
09 / 925 / 140 <- cat 5
12 / 924 / 134 <- recon flight arrival
15 / 922 / 138
18 / 922 / 137
21 / 922 / 140
24 / 921 / 135 <- recon flight arrival
27 / 923 / 130
30 / 924 / 135
33 / 924 / 134
36 / 922 / 139 <- recon flight arrival
39 / 921 / 140
42 / 922 / 139
45 / 925 / 134
48 / 929 / 125 <- recon flight arrival

It would be awesome if that HMON forecast verifies and we’re able to get multiple flights into 135-140 kt Sam, but it’s going to have to really smooth out its CDO in 6-7 hours if that’s gonna verify.


Yeah indeed, let's hope so but I think a blend of HWRF and HMON might be more accurate. This would still bring it to a cat 5, but not for as long as HMON on its own. I guess the best thing to do now is to just look at the actual imagery available and await the next recon which should reach Sam in about 6.5 hours. So Sam still has some time to smooth itself out.
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Re: ATL: SAM - Models

#925 Postby chris_fit » Thu Sep 30, 2021 11:05 am

I haven't checked this thread recently, so apologies if this was said before but...

Way to go GFS! This was a pretty clear case in which the GFS 'wins' vs the ECMF when it comes to early track solution.
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Re: ATL: SAM - Models

#926 Postby SconnieCane » Sun Oct 03, 2021 6:40 pm

chris_fit wrote:I haven't checked this thread recently, so apologies if this was said before but...

Way to go GFS! This was a pretty clear case in which the GFS 'wins' vs the ECMF when it comes to early track solution.


Yes, it begs the question what has happened to the ECMWF? Time was, not so long ago either, that when it was the model showing the high end/high impact solution, you sat up and took notice.
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