While the GFS has shifted to the SW, there is still a clear exit for Sam to take. The trough off the eastern seaboard is deeper this time leaving a large weakness.
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ATL: SAM - Models
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SouthFLTropics
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Re: ATL: SAM - Models
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AutoPenalti
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Re: ATL: SAM - Models
Maybe that Typhoon will likely amplify both the trough AND the ridge.
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Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)
TCVN is a weighted averaged
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AutoPenalti
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Re: ATL: SAM - Models
I'm thinking the Euro will likely adjust N on this run. I mean how much more south can you go?
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.
Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)
TCVN is a weighted averaged
Re: ATL: SAM - Models
SFLcane wrote:I give euro that its been pretty consistent unlike the gfs.
The parallel 00z EURO is closer to the GFS.. it does not go as far west as the operational EURO does.. curious to see both 12z EURO runs.
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otowntiger
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Re: ATL: SAM - Models
SFLcane wrote:12z Gfs weaker perhaps trending towards euro.
Looks very my much the same to me. GFS strongly OTS. Looks to still threaten Bermuda. If it shifted SW I can’t tell.
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Re: ATL: SAM - Models
Interacts with a low off New England and is now being tossed into Nova Scotia as a Cat 1/2.
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I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
Re: ATL: SAM - Models
Insane timing difference on the GFS from last run, but it ends up being a bigger threat to land (canada and eastern Maine) due to the northern (as opposed to NE) trajectory it takes.
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SFLcane
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Re: ATL: SAM - Models
otowntiger wrote:SFLcane wrote:12z Gfs weaker perhaps trending towards euro.
Looks very my much the same to me. GFS strongly OTS. Looks to still threaten Bermuda. If it shifted SW I can’t tell.
It is weaker days 1-4
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Spacecoast
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Re: ATL: SAM - Models
JPmia wrote:SFLcane wrote:I give euro that its been pretty consistent unlike the gfs.
The parallel 00z EURO is closer to the GFS.. it does not go as far west as the operational EURO does.. curious to see both 12z EURO runs.
I agree. The euro has been more consistent recently.
It's also been interesting to watch the Euro operational compared to it's ensemble mean...
The 0z again
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jlauderdal
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Re: RE: Re: ATL: SAM - Models
Why is that? Couple of days ago there was one run that took sam through the ridge but overall the runs seem plausible.Zonacane wrote:The GFS runs belong in the trash.
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Re: ATL: SAM - Models
That last Euro track reminds me a lot of Hugo's path, except it crosses to the north of PR instead of going through PR.
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Re: RE: Re: ATL: SAM - Models
jlauderdal wrote:Why is that? Couple of days ago there was one run that took sam through the ridge but overall the runs seem plausible.Zonacane wrote:The GFS runs belong in the trash.
The remnants of Peter will split off to guide Sam away from the CONUS and then generate into a major in the gulf. Riiiiiiight
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Re: ATL: SAM - Models
The GFS isn't far off from a New England hit. If things are a little different New England could be in play.
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ColdMiser123
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Re: ATL: SAM - Models
The closed off trough over the Northeast is a genuine wildcard, and there's really no way to know for sure how that will impact Sam at this point. Northeast should keep an eye on this.
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