ATL: SAM - Models

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
CrazyC83
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 33391
Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
Location: Deep South, for the first time!

Re: ATL: SAM - Models

#881 Postby CrazyC83 » Fri Sep 24, 2021 9:21 pm

Hybridstorm_November2001 wrote:Typically, Sam would have little actual chance of a North American landfall but given that pesky upper-level low (projected to form) and a possible building ridge to the NE of Sam and things become tricky, to say the least. This is, of course, if either of the two players verifies: the upper-level low might not form or be weaker and the ridge might be weaker or in a different position. It is a 50/50 shot between a harmless (to everyone but offshore interests) fish storm and one that either impacts or comes dangerously close to the Eastern Seaboard right now, as I see things. Interesting days (and nights) ahead.


I agree. That cutoff low could be the key. One model created TWO cutoff lows - one over Nova Scotia and one off the Mid-Atlantic. That would be an OTS scenario since those lows would cancel out, but that seems incredibly unlikely. But the Mid-Atlantic cutoff low could be a steering current in itself northwest.
3 likes   

User avatar
Teban54
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1903
Joined: Sat May 19, 2018 1:19 pm

Re: ATL: SAM - Models

#882 Postby Teban54 » Fri Sep 24, 2021 9:28 pm

0 likes   

PavelGaborik10
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 403
Joined: Tue Sep 04, 2018 3:23 pm

Re: ATL: SAM - Models

#883 Postby PavelGaborik10 » Fri Sep 24, 2021 9:44 pm

Tough for me to back the Euro over the GFS in 2021, we'll see.
2 likes   

RevanTheJedi96
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 106
Joined: Wed Sep 01, 2021 10:40 am

Re: ATL: SAM - Models

#884 Postby RevanTheJedi96 » Fri Sep 24, 2021 9:55 pm

PavelGaborik10 wrote:Tough for me to back the Euro over the GFS in 2021, we'll see.


Important to recognize that the path Sam is going towards plays into some key weaknesses the GFS has.
0 likes   

floridasun
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 107
Joined: Tue Sep 14, 2021 3:59 pm

Re: ATL: SAM - Models

#885 Postby floridasun » Fri Sep 24, 2021 10:11 pm

we need see how Teresa make high weaker next few days that tell us how sam going move if Teresa get weaker faster and high may regroup if Teresa stasy longer and weakness will stay longer
0 likes   

User avatar
Hybridstorm_November2001
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2802
Joined: Sat Aug 21, 2004 2:50 pm
Location: SW New Brunswick, Canada
Contact:

Re: ATL: SAM - Models

#886 Postby Hybridstorm_November2001 » Fri Sep 24, 2021 10:14 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:
Hybridstorm_November2001 wrote:Typically, Sam would have little actual chance of a North American landfall but given that pesky upper-level low (projected to form) and a possible building ridge to the NE of Sam and things become tricky, to say the least. This is, of course, if either of the two players verifies: the upper-level low might not form or be weaker and the ridge might be weaker or in a different position. It is a 50/50 shot between a harmless (to everyone but offshore interests) fish storm and one that either impacts or comes dangerously close to the Eastern Seaboard right now, as I see things. Interesting days (and nights) ahead.


I agree. That cutoff low could be the key. One model created TWO cutoff lows - one over Nova Scotia and one off the Mid-Atlantic. That would be an OTS scenario since those lows would cancel out, but that seems incredibly unlikely. But the Mid-Atlantic cutoff low could be a steering current in itself northwest.


Another thing, purely based on a combination of gut feeling and experience. I would much rather be in a storm's projected path ten days out than five days out or less. More often than not things seldom evolve exactly as such long-range model runs show in a normal situation, much less in such a potentially unusually complex one as could occur with Sam.
0 likes   

User avatar
TheDreamTraveler
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 633
Joined: Sun Aug 22, 2010 3:10 am
Location: PA

Re: ATL: SAM - Models

#887 Postby TheDreamTraveler » Fri Sep 24, 2021 10:51 pm

Teban54 wrote:(12z)

GFS vs Euro regarding a potential NE landfall... I have seen that before, haven't you?


Reading those Ryan Maue tweets and then seeing the UH OH tweet is just hilarious lol

We're still 10 days out and that's a long time in terms of weather. There's a lot that can still change here. All I know is when you have globals siding with the Euro that it definitely gives it more credit than when it's by itself
0 likes   

User avatar
ScottNAtlanta
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1990
Joined: Sat May 25, 2013 3:11 pm
Location: Atlanta, GA

Re: ATL: SAM - Models

#888 Postby ScottNAtlanta » Fri Sep 24, 2021 11:12 pm

When you have trough splits like this one generally will move to the SW away from the other one which goes out. We shall see but I think the cut off low will be further sw than what is showing now.
0 likes   
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
Teban54
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1903
Joined: Sat May 19, 2018 1:19 pm

Re: ATL: SAM - Models

#889 Postby Teban54 » Fri Sep 24, 2021 11:31 pm

0z GFS landfall in Nova Scotia.
0 likes   

RevanTheJedi96
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 106
Joined: Wed Sep 01, 2021 10:40 am

Re: ATL: SAM - Models

#890 Postby RevanTheJedi96 » Fri Sep 24, 2021 11:40 pm

Teban54 wrote:0z GFS landfall in Nova Scotia.


Pretty massive west shift. Not great.
0 likes   

User avatar
TheDreamTraveler
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 633
Joined: Sun Aug 22, 2010 3:10 am
Location: PA

Re: ATL: SAM - Models

#891 Postby TheDreamTraveler » Fri Sep 24, 2021 11:51 pm

The slight hook left around that low into Nova Scotia is a huge difference compared to all the previous runs that curved out to sea not hitting land. Pretty interesting. Gfs just has the low in a much different spot than Euro

We also still have 10 more days for things to change. A lot could happen. Remember too every single computer model had Henri harmlessly out to sea until 5 or so days before
Last edited by TheDreamTraveler on Fri Sep 24, 2021 11:58 pm, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   

User avatar
Hybridstorm_November2001
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2802
Joined: Sat Aug 21, 2004 2:50 pm
Location: SW New Brunswick, Canada
Contact:

Re: ATL: SAM - Models

#892 Postby Hybridstorm_November2001 » Fri Sep 24, 2021 11:57 pm

TheDreamTraveler wrote:The slight hook left around that low into Nova Scotia is a huge difference compared to all the previous runs that curved out to sea not hitting land. Pretty interesting. Gfs just has the low in a much different spot than Euro


Indeed, until we know or have a much better idea (say five days out or so) if the low will actually be there (or form at all) or not (and how strong it will be, same goes for the ridge) Sam's far future is anyone's guess.

Edit

It's a crapshoot right now, which is why I laugh when people say with conviction "fish" or "landfall" is a "lock" at this point. :lol:
Last edited by Hybridstorm_November2001 on Sat Sep 25, 2021 12:01 am, edited 2 times in total.
1 likes   

User avatar
TheDreamTraveler
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 633
Joined: Sun Aug 22, 2010 3:10 am
Location: PA

Re: ATL: SAM - Models

#893 Postby TheDreamTraveler » Fri Sep 24, 2021 11:59 pm

Hybridstorm_November2001 wrote:
TheDreamTraveler wrote:The slight hook left around that low into Nova Scotia is a huge difference compared to all the previous runs that curved out to sea not hitting land. Pretty interesting. Gfs just has the low in a much different spot than Euro


Indeed, until we know or have a much better idea (say five days out or so) if the low will actually be there (or form at all) or not (and how strong it will be, same goes for the ridge) Sam's far future is anyone's guess.


Yeah I totally agree. People forget that Henri just happened and every single computer model had it going out to sea until they all corrected west to the point Henri made landfall and was going due west into new york. Being 10 days out is such a long time to be completely sure about anything yet
3 likes   

User avatar
Teban54
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1903
Joined: Sat May 19, 2018 1:19 pm

Re: ATL: SAM - Models

#894 Postby Teban54 » Sat Sep 25, 2021 12:02 am

Funny enough, 0z CMC now sends Sam OTS after scaring us with a New England landfall yesterday. The cutoff low is much further NE than 12z, hence didn't capture Sam.

That's actually also the case for GFS, but 0z GFS has the low further south than 0z CMC (not as south as 18z GFS), at the perfect spot for a left hook.

Guess the point is that it's too early to know what exactly will happen.
2 likes   

supercane4867
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4966
Joined: Wed Nov 14, 2012 10:43 am

Re: ATL: SAM - Models

#895 Postby supercane4867 » Sat Sep 25, 2021 1:35 am

00z euro caving a bit to the GFS. East coast low much deeper than yesterday's 00z run
0 likes   

PavelGaborik10
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 403
Joined: Tue Sep 04, 2018 3:23 pm

Re: ATL: SAM - Models

#896 Postby PavelGaborik10 » Sat Sep 25, 2021 1:53 am

Now the Euro and CMC are east of the GFS lmao. I'm definitely leaning towards a recurve East of New England and Nova Scotia
0 likes   

User avatar
kevin
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1764
Age: 25
Joined: Wed Aug 28, 2019 4:35 am

Re: ATL: SAM - Models

#897 Postby kevin » Sat Sep 25, 2021 2:26 am

Since most (global) models (and even HWRF/HMON) didn't foresee explosive RI at the level we're currently seeing, I wonder how that will impact the track of the storm. Would a stronger storm be pulled poleward sooner or what do you think the track implications could be for Sam?
0 likes   

Shell Mound
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2434
Age: 31
Joined: Thu Sep 07, 2017 3:39 pm
Location: St. Petersburg, FL → Scandinavia

Re: ATL: SAM - Models

#898 Postby Shell Mound » Sat Sep 25, 2021 4:10 am

kevin wrote:Since most (global) models (and even HWRF/HMON) didn't foresee explosive RI at the level we're currently seeing, I wonder how that will impact the track of the storm. Would a stronger storm be pulled poleward sooner or what do you think the track implications could be for Sam?

Yes, a deeper Sam would be even more likely to miss the Islands and curve OTS. The deepest models have consistently been farthest northeast as well.

Image

The above illustrates why most of the guidance still shows Sam curving OTS. The trough axis is sited to the west of Sam and thus “kicks” it OTS.

Incidentally, the position of the trough axis relative to the storm also explains why Joaquin followed the EC vs. the GFS and later headed OTS.
1 likes   
CVW / MiamiensisWx / Shell Mound
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.

User avatar
pgoss11
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 702
Joined: Tue Sep 02, 2003 3:55 pm

Re: ATL: SAM - Models

#899 Postby pgoss11 » Sat Sep 25, 2021 6:40 am

Anyone else having trouble with Tropical Tidbits site?
0 likes   

User avatar
NDG
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 14933
Joined: Sun Jul 09, 2006 10:14 pm
Location: Orlando, FL

Re: ATL: SAM - Models

#900 Postby NDG » Sat Sep 25, 2021 6:46 am

pgoss11 wrote:Anyone else having trouble with Tropical Tidbits site?


Yes, here is the latest 06z GFS from weathernerds.

Image
1 likes   


Return to “2021”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 20 guests