ATL: SAM - Models

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Nancy Smar
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ATL: SAM - Models

#1 Postby Nancy Smar » Mon Sep 20, 2021 2:52 am

Only Model runs here.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#2 Postby aspen » Mon Sep 20, 2021 6:36 am

06z GFS: starts to recurve at 40-45W in 4-5 days, but gets blocked and finds itself in a similar location as Peter in the long range

00z Euro: stays around 9-12N for 5 days or so and is by far the furthest SW track, getting close to the Leeward Islands

The 00z CMC and 06z ICON attempt a recurve earlier than the GFS.

06z HWRF has this become TS Sam on Wednesday or Thursday at just 7.5N-8.5N.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#3 Postby tolakram » Mon Sep 20, 2021 6:50 am

0Z Euro run, so we can look back and laugh. :) I'm pessimistic, I think right now the chances of this getting strong are really unknown.

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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#4 Postby tolakram » Mon Sep 20, 2021 6:51 am

6Z GFS
Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#5 Postby SconnieCane » Mon Sep 20, 2021 8:02 am

tolakram wrote:6Z GFS
https://i.imgur.com/OkESEYB.gif


Verbatim last frame of the GFS run it looks to me like the ridge fills back in and would force it to make a left turn again.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#6 Postby aspen » Mon Sep 20, 2021 8:23 am

HMON dips this even further south than the HWRF/GEFS/EPS and has it become a Category 3 by late Friday or early Saturday. Both hurricane models show a TS in 48-60 hours.

Yeah 98L does look rather good right now, but I doubt genesis will be that fast. Also, Peter. Nothing else needs to be said lol
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#7 Postby Hypercane_Kyle » Mon Sep 20, 2021 8:25 am

We'll see -- after Rose & Peter I have my doubts about this becoming anything of note.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#8 Postby Teban54 » Mon Sep 20, 2021 8:38 am

Hypercane_Kyle wrote:We'll see -- after Rose & Peter I have my doubts about this becoming anything of note.

Rose was actually pretty well forecast. Most models had it forming far east and did not make it very strong as it recurves. Unfortunately, its track gives not enough time to intensify before cooler SSTs.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#9 Postby LarryWx » Mon Sep 20, 2021 9:23 am

The 6Z EPS once again has a pretty strong signal for intensification. However, it fortunately also has the same recurve setup as far as the CONUS is concerned with no WAR and a nice E US trough moving in by this weekend. The NE Caribbean may need to keep an eye on it though. And of course Bermuda.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#10 Postby ScottNAtlanta » Mon Sep 20, 2021 9:32 am

Lets not forget the GFS has a bias of wanting to recurve everything on the model runs just after genesis in the MDR. I expect it will correct west
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#11 Postby AutoPenalti » Mon Sep 20, 2021 9:34 am

ScottNAtlanta wrote:Lets not forget the GFS has a bias of wanting to recurve everything on the model runs just after genesis in the MDR. I expect it will correct west

GFS has been pretty spot on in terms of track for MDR systems this year. I think the Euro will likely shift East considering the latest EPS agrees.
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Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)

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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#12 Postby Blinhart » Mon Sep 20, 2021 9:49 am

Anyone have the super long range models, where it goes all the way to the middle of October, so we can see the POSSIBILITY of what COULD HAPPEN???
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#13 Postby ScottNAtlanta » Mon Sep 20, 2021 10:07 am

AutoPenalti wrote:
ScottNAtlanta wrote:Lets not forget the GFS has a bias of wanting to recurve everything on the model runs just after genesis in the MDR. I expect it will correct west

GFS has been pretty spot on in terms of track for MDR systems this year. I think the Euro will likely shift East considering the latest EPS agrees.


GFS tries to take it out and gets blocked then takes it west, then takes it out with a system moving into Atlantic Canada. That far out cant really be believed (324 hours). The first weakness is felt at 192 hours. That is still a long way out and depends on a very complex and high number of conditions to be met. Bottom line is it is still too early to make much of a determination past 72 hrs.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#14 Postby LarryWx » Mon Sep 20, 2021 10:52 am

12Z ICON, like the 0Z, recurves this pretty sharply near 50W.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#15 Postby AutoPenalti » Mon Sep 20, 2021 11:00 am

LarryWx wrote:12Z ICON, like the 0Z, recurves this pretty sharply near 50W.

This slows down which likely indicates the ridge rebuilding overhead.
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Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)

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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#16 Postby Teban54 » Mon Sep 20, 2021 11:11 am

AutoPenalti wrote:
LarryWx wrote:12Z ICON, like the 0Z, recurves this pretty sharply near 50W.

This slows down which likely indicates the ridge rebuilding overhead.

Peter is still active at the end of 12z ICON though. Doubt the ridge can rebuild with that particular setup (though keep in mind it's just one run from a less reliable model).

12z ICON also doesn't get 98L nearly as strong as 0z in the long term. I wonder if that's another result of 12z keeps Peter intact for so long - no other models currently show this.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#17 Postby ElectricStorm » Mon Sep 20, 2021 11:23 am

Struggling to intensify so far on the 12z GFS. Odette gets way far south and it might be throwing some shear on 98L on this run
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#18 Postby AutoPenalti » Mon Sep 20, 2021 11:27 am

GFS has 98L further E or just slower in movement and intensity.
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Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)

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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#19 Postby ElectricStorm » Mon Sep 20, 2021 11:31 am

Now it's intensifying. Turning back W too
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#20 Postby AutoPenalti » Mon Sep 20, 2021 11:34 am

Weather Dude wrote:Now it's intensifying. Turning back W too

Looks temporary.

Image
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.


Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)

TCVN
is a weighted averaged


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