ARB: SHAHEEN (Gulab) - Post-Tropical

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Re: BoB: GULAB - Cyclonic Storm

#21 Postby Sciencerocks » Thu Sep 30, 2021 8:41 pm

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Re: BoB: GULAB - Cyclonic Storm

#22 Postby shah83 » Thu Sep 30, 2021 9:37 pm

Today's 18z HWRF was absolutely epic. Would be a multiple tens of billions of dollars disaster if it happened like that.

Muscat, AbuDhabi, Qatar/Bahrain(especially that Cyclone Tracy style hit) all gets blasted, while all them shallow sea Persian Gulf gas facilities gets waves I'm preeetty sure they are entirely unused to.
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Re: BoB: GULAB - Cyclonic Storm

#23 Postby doomhaMwx » Thu Sep 30, 2021 10:16 pm

shah83 wrote:Today's 18z HWRF was absolutely epic. Would be a multiple tens of billions of dollars disaster if it happened like that.

Muscat, AbuDhabi, Qatar/Bahrain(especially that Cyclone Tracy style hit) all gets blasted, while all them shallow sea Persian Gulf gas facilities gets waves I'm preeetty sure they are entirely unused to.

Historic

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The HWRF has basically modelled a grey swan (or black swan) tropical cyclone.

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Re: ARB: GULAB/SHAHEEN - Cyclonic Storm

#24 Postby Subtrop » Thu Sep 30, 2021 11:11 pm

The Deep Depression over northeast Arabian Sea off Gujarat coast moved
west-northwestwards with a speed of about 25 kmph, during past 6 hours, intensified
into a Cyclonic Storm ‘Shaheen’ and lay centred at 0530 hrs IST of today, the 01st
October, 2021, near latitude 23.2°N and longitude 65.3°E, about 400 km westnorthwest of Devbhoomi Dwarka (Gujarat), 260 km south-southwest of Karachi
(Pakistan) and 530 km east-southeast of Chabahar Port (Iran).
It is very likely to further intensify into a Severe Cyclonic Storm during the next
24 hours and move west-northwestwards during next 36 hours. Thereafter it is likely to
re-curve west-southwestwards skirting Makran coast, move towards Oman coast
across Gulf of Oman and weaken gradually.
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Re: ARB: GULAB/SHAHEEN - Cyclonic Storm

#25 Postby mrbagyo » Fri Oct 01, 2021 12:01 am

Sorry for the juddery loop - IMD's satellite page still needs some tweaking
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Re: ARB: GULAB/SHAHEEN - Cyclonic Storm

#26 Postby ElectricStorm » Fri Oct 01, 2021 12:10 am

Now forecast to peak as a Cat 1 on the newest JTWC advisory.

So I guess this is Shaheen now? Or is is officially Gulab-Shaheen? IMD is weird sometimes :lol:
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Re: ARB: GULAB/SHAHEEN - Cyclonic Storm

#27 Postby Sciencerocks » Fri Oct 01, 2021 12:13 am

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Re: ARB: GULAB/SHAHEEN - Cyclonic Storm

#28 Postby mrbagyo » Fri Oct 01, 2021 12:23 am

Meteosat
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Re: ARB: GULAB/SHAHEEN - Cyclonic Storm

#29 Postby doomhaMwx » Fri Oct 01, 2021 4:37 am

03B GULAB 211001 0600 23.0N 64.3E IO 50 988


Already building an eye/inner core.

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There's still a notable spread among model tracks for the next 24-48hrs. ECMWF, being the northern outlier, shows possible landfall near the Iran-Pakistan border before turning WSW towards Oman.

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Re: ARB: GULAB/SHAHEEN - Cyclonic Storm

#30 Postby mrbagyo » Fri Oct 01, 2021 5:18 am

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Re: ARB: GULAB/SHAHEEN - Cyclonic Storm

#31 Postby ElectricStorm » Fri Oct 01, 2021 7:31 am

03B GULAB 211001 1200 23.3N 63.6E IO 60 982
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Re: ARB: GULAB/SHAHEEN - Cyclonic Storm

#32 Postby mrbagyo » Fri Oct 01, 2021 7:34 am

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Re: ARB: GULAB/SHAHEEN - Cyclonic Storm

#33 Postby mrbagyo » Fri Oct 01, 2021 10:45 am

sun down
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Re: ARB: GULAB/SHAHEEN - Cyclonic Storm

#34 Postby doomhaMwx » Fri Oct 01, 2021 1:57 pm

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Re: ARB: GULAB/SHAHEEN - Cyclonic Storm

#35 Postby Teban54 » Fri Oct 01, 2021 2:02 pm

mrbagyo wrote:Meteosat
https://i.imgur.com/lOyQKqi.gif

Is that a landcane to the east? :lol:
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Re: BoB: GULAB - Cyclonic Storm

#36 Postby ChrisH-UK » Fri Oct 01, 2021 3:29 pm

Imran_doomhaMwx wrote:
shah83 wrote:Today's 18z HWRF was absolutely epic. Would be a multiple tens of billions of dollars disaster if it happened like that.

Muscat, AbuDhabi, Qatar/Bahrain(especially that Cyclone Tracy style hit) all gets blasted, while all them shallow sea Persian Gulf gas facilities gets waves I'm preeetty sure they are entirely unused to.

Historic

The HWRF has basically modelled a grey swan (or black swan) tropical cyclone.


Yep a tropical cyclone in the gulf would be a bad situation.

The paper is this one - Grey swan tropical cyclones by Ning Lin and Kerry Emanuel

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Re: ARB: GULAB/SHAHEEN - Cyclonic Storm

#37 Postby Sciencerocks » Fri Oct 01, 2021 5:56 pm

I think this could ride up the gulf ;) That would be historic! A lot of super hot water to tap into.
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Re: ARB: GULAB/SHAHEEN - Cyclonic Storm

#38 Postby Sciencerocks » Fri Oct 01, 2021 6:14 pm

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Re: ARB: GULAB/SHAHEEN - Cyclonic Storm

#39 Postby Sciencerocks » Fri Oct 01, 2021 6:27 pm

Makes landfall and ends up about 60-70 miles south of being in the perisan gulf. WE'll see if we can have history or not.

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Re: ARB: GULAB/SHAHEEN - Cyclonic Storm

#40 Postby shah83 » Fri Oct 01, 2021 7:06 pm

Sohar gets the southern eyewall of a major?, Al Ain gets whacked, and Abu Dhabi gets hit hardest of these HWRF run to date, with direct TS conditions. In Gulf, but only gets sand lizards and some random petroleum engineer this run in Qatar and KSA.
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