ATL: TERESA - Remnants - Discussion

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ATL: TERESA - Remnants - Discussion

#1 Postby Subtrop » Fri Sep 24, 2021 6:27 am

AL, 99, 2021092406, , BEST, 0, 314N, 620W, 25, 1011, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1014, 150, 70, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 041,


https://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/btk/
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#2 Postby cycloneye » Fri Sep 24, 2021 6:46 am

A large area of showers and thunderstorms centered a couple
hundred miles east of Bermuda is associated with a formative surface
low interacting with an upper-level trough. Additional tropical or
subtropical development of this system could occur through early
Saturday as it moves generally north-northwestward. After that
time, development is not expected due to strong upper-level winds.
Additional information on this system, including gale warnings, can
be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather
Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#3 Postby Category5Kaiju » Fri Sep 24, 2021 7:09 am

Wow...did not expect this at all. 99L just came in like a dark horse. Assuming it does get named, and the MDR wave gets named as well....that's it. All we have left is Wanda, and then after that it's the auxiliary list. :eek:
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#4 Postby Sciencerocks » Fri Sep 24, 2021 9:17 am

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#5 Postby underthwx » Fri Sep 24, 2021 9:22 am

Category5Kaiju wrote:Wow...did not expect this at all. 99L just came in like a dark horse. Assuming it does get named, and the MDR wave gets named as well....that's it. All we have left is Wanda, and then after that it's the auxiliary list. :eek:


Has there ever been 2 back to back seasons that used up all the names...before using the Greek names?...
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#6 Postby ElectricStorm » Fri Sep 24, 2021 9:29 am

underthwx wrote:
Category5Kaiju wrote:Wow...did not expect this at all. 99L just came in like a dark horse. Assuming it does get named, and the MDR wave gets named as well....that's it. All we have left is Wanda, and then after that it's the auxiliary list. :eek:


Has there ever been 2 back to back seasons that used up all the names...before using the Greek names?...

Nope. The only other year was 2005
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#7 Postby underthwx » Fri Sep 24, 2021 9:31 am

Weather Dude wrote:
underthwx wrote:
Category5Kaiju wrote:Wow...did not expect this at all. 99L just came in like a dark horse. Assuming it does get named, and the MDR wave gets named as well....that's it. All we have left is Wanda, and then after that it's the auxiliary list. :eek:


Has there ever been 2 back to back seasons that used up all the names...before using the Greek names?...

Nope. The only other year was 2005


Thx WD....
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#8 Postby galaxy401 » Fri Sep 24, 2021 10:10 am

This isn't Peter exactly but I'm guessing it's the trough that absorbed Peter?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#9 Postby MGC » Fri Sep 24, 2021 12:45 pm

Looks like 99L is well on its way to becoming a TC......MGC
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#10 Postby NewEnglandWinter » Fri Sep 24, 2021 12:57 pm

Surface observations and recent satellite wind data indicate that a
surface low located a couple hundred miles north-northeast of
Bermuda is gradually becoming better defined as it interacts with an
upper-level trough. This system is producing winds of 40 to 45 mph
north of the low center and additional development into a
subtropical or tropical storm appears likely. Advisories could be
initiated as soon as this afternoon as the system moves slowly
toward the north-northwest over the next day or so. Additional
information on this system, including gale warnings, can be found in
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#11 Postby KirbyDude25 » Fri Sep 24, 2021 1:05 pm

NewEnglandWinter wrote:
Surface observations and recent satellite wind data indicate that a
surface low located a couple hundred miles north-northeast of
Bermuda is gradually becoming better defined as it interacts with an
upper-level trough. This system is producing winds of 40 to 45 mph
north of the low center and additional development into a
subtropical or tropical storm appears likely. Advisories could be
initiated as soon as this afternoon as the system moves slowly
toward the north-northwest over the next day or so. Additional
information on this system, including gale warnings, can be found in
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

Looks like we could be getting Tropical/Subtropical Storm Teresa before the day's over
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#12 Postby aspen » Fri Sep 24, 2021 1:08 pm

Wow this came out of nowhere and spun up fast. Unfortunately, it won’t have much time to be anything very noteworthy.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#13 Postby Sciencerocks » Fri Sep 24, 2021 1:28 pm

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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#14 Postby ChrisH-UK » Fri Sep 24, 2021 2:05 pm

Interestingly some of the models have 99L splitting and part of it heading towards New England, another model shows landfall in New England area.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#15 Postby Extratropical94 » Fri Sep 24, 2021 2:07 pm

40kts

AL, 99, 2021092418, , BEST, 0, 341N, 641W, 40, 1008, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1014, 120, 40, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 041,
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#16 Postby Hammy » Fri Sep 24, 2021 2:37 pm

Convection's waning pretty quickly, looks like it might've missed it's chance.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#17 Postby CrazyC83 » Fri Sep 24, 2021 2:51 pm

This is supposed to be the upper level low that complicates the forecast for Sam down the road?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#18 Postby Extratropical94 » Fri Sep 24, 2021 2:56 pm

STWO

Updated: Recent visible satellite imagery indicates that a
well-defined center has formed with a surface low located a couple
hundred miles north-northeast of Bermuda interacting with an
upper-level trough. In addition, the low is producing gale-force
winds on the north side of its circulation. Additional development
into a subtropical storm is now expected, and advisories will likely
be initiated this afternoon as the system moves slowly toward the
north-northwest. Additional information on this system, including
gale warnings, can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the
National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#19 Postby zzh » Fri Sep 24, 2021 2:59 pm

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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#20 Postby Extratropical94 » Fri Sep 24, 2021 3:03 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:This is supposed to be the upper level low that complicates the forecast for Sam down the road?


I think the UL trough that is forecast to become that cut off ULL near the east coast in the future is currently over western Canada.
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