WPAC: Tropical Depression 91W

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Hayabusa
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WPAC: Tropical Depression 91W

#1 Postby Hayabusa » Mon Sep 27, 2021 12:30 am

91W.INVEST

91W INVEST 210927 0000 20.8N 152.3E WPAC 15 1010

Guess it's the JMA LPA
WWJP27 RJTD 270000
WARNING AND SUMMARY 270000.
WARNING VALID 280000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
LOW PRESSURE AREA 1008 HPA NEAR 19N 151E NORTH SLOWLY.

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Last edited by Hayabusa on Mon Sep 27, 2021 9:36 am, edited 1 time in total.
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ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 91W

#2 Postby mrbagyo » Mon Sep 27, 2021 12:53 am

This is getting ripped apart by Typhoon Mindulle's outflow
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 91W

#3 Postby Hayabusa » Mon Sep 27, 2021 2:47 am

Some ensembles develop it, so too the previous GFS op runs, in a rather unusual westward track as a typhoon, it's interesting but unless it garners more support on that scenario, the low that's about to form over the Philippine Sea in early October is more interesting.
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ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい!!!
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically

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Hayabusa
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 91W

#4 Postby Hayabusa » Mon Sep 27, 2021 9:37 am

WWJP27 RJTD 271200
WARNING AND SUMMARY 271200.
WARNING VALID 281200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1006 HPA AT 21N 152E ALMOST STATIONARY.
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ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい!!!
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically

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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 91W

#5 Postby Hayabusa » Mon Sep 27, 2021 7:50 pm

ABPW10 PGTW 280100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH
PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/280100Z-280600ZSEP2021//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/271951ZSEP2021//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
21.3N 135.2E, APPROXIMATELY 677 NM NORTHEAST OF GUAM. MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) AND A 272107Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE
DEPICT PERSISTENT CONVECTION OFFSET TO THE SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF
AN EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). A 272143Z METOP-A ASCAT PASS
SHOWS HIGHER WINDS IN THE EASTERN HEMISPHERE OF THE ELONGATED LLC.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES GENERALLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR
DEVELOPMENT, WITH ROBUST EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM (30C) SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) BEING OFFSET BY MODERATE (15-20 KTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). NUMERICAL MODELS AGREE THAT 91W WILL
TRACK NORTH-NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, BUT DISAGREE
REGARDING INTENSIFICATION, WITH GFS AND NAVGEM SHOWING
INTENSIFICATION BUT ECMWF AND JMA REMAINING BELOW WARNING CRITERIA.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1010 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS MEDIUM.
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ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい!!!
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically

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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 91W

#6 Postby Sciencerocks » Mon Sep 27, 2021 11:03 pm

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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 91W

#7 Postby Hayabusa » Tue Sep 28, 2021 2:48 am

Still showing some west trackers
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ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい!!!
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically

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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 91W

#8 Postby Hayabusa » Tue Sep 28, 2021 8:21 am

Latest 91W ensembles and :lol: the four ensembles from Mindulle going sub 900 mb (also the op run init is 915 mb)
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ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい!!!
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically


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