ATL: VICTOR - Remnants - Discussion

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
MarioProtVI
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 659
Age: 22
Joined: Sun Sep 29, 2019 7:33 pm
Location: New Jersey

Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#41 Postby MarioProtVI » Wed Sep 29, 2021 7:05 am

ASCAT got a direct hit at 09Z. Small area of 35 kt and elongated but closed circulation. Most likely they extrapolate improving presentation to go straight to Victor at 11.
4 likes   

User avatar
abajan
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 4175
Joined: Sun Sep 07, 2003 5:10 am
Location: Barbados

Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#42 Postby abajan » Wed Sep 29, 2021 7:22 am

Expect cyclogenesis at any time.
Satellite images indicate that showers and thunderstorms continue
to become better organized in association with an area of low
pressure located several hundred miles south of the Cabo
Verde Islands. If the current trends continue, advisories will
likely be initiated on a tropical depression or tropical storm
later today.
This system is expected to move west-northwestward at
10 to 15 mph over the eastern Atlantic during the next several
days. Additional information on this system, including gale
warnings, can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo
France.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.
3 likes   

User avatar
Extratropical94
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 3535
Age: 29
Joined: Wed Oct 20, 2010 6:36 am
Location: Hamburg, Germany
Contact:

Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#43 Postby Extratropical94 » Wed Sep 29, 2021 8:56 am

I have no idea where they get their inside information from, but RAMMB list TD 20 on their TC page. Usually this means that an official designation will be coming in the next advisory cycle.

AL202021 - Tropical Depression TWENTY


https://rammb-data.cira.colostate.edu/t ... eason=2021
1 likes   
54° 11' 59'' N, 9° 9' 20'' E
Boomer Sooner!
Go Broncos! Go Cards! Go Niners!
- Daniel

User avatar
Extratropical94
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 3535
Age: 29
Joined: Wed Oct 20, 2010 6:36 am
Location: Hamburg, Germany
Contact:

Re: ATL: TWENTY - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#44 Postby Extratropical94 » Wed Sep 29, 2021 9:10 am

5 likes   
54° 11' 59'' N, 9° 9' 20'' E
Boomer Sooner!
Go Broncos! Go Cards! Go Niners!
- Daniel

User avatar
Kazmit
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1915
Age: 21
Joined: Mon Jul 25, 2016 8:49 am
Location: Williamsburg VA for college, Bermuda otherwise

Re: ATL: TWENTY - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#45 Postby Kazmit » Wed Sep 29, 2021 9:37 am

Soon to be 20 named storms and it's still September. :double:
3 likes   
Igor 2010, Sandy 2012, Fay 2014, Gonzalo 2014, Joaquin 2015, Nicole 2016, Humberto 2019

I am only a tropical weather enthusiast. My predictions are not official and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
kevin
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1764
Age: 25
Joined: Wed Aug 28, 2019 4:35 am

Re: ATL: TWENTY - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#46 Postby kevin » Wed Sep 29, 2021 9:46 am

Kazmit wrote:Soon to be 20 named storms and it's still September. :double:


Remember the talk about a quiet September a while ago... And yes most storms didn't become that powerful (even though I think this one could become quite something), but I think Sam makes up for that.
2 likes   

User avatar
ElectricStorm
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4493
Age: 23
Joined: Tue Aug 13, 2019 11:23 pm
Location: Skiatook, OK / Norman, OK

Re: ATL: TWENTY - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#47 Postby ElectricStorm » Wed Sep 29, 2021 9:51 am

I think this one has some potential to overperform. It's already looking decent, should be Victor soon. Definitely should become a hurricane, and there may even be a chance for a major if it gets going quick enough. The window of opportunity is small, but it's still enough time to become a significant system.
5 likes   
I am in no way a professional. Take what I say with a grain of salt as I could be totally wrong. Please refer to the NHC, NWS, or SPC for official information.

Boomer Sooner!

Sciencerocks
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 7266
Age: 38
Joined: Thu Jul 06, 2017 1:51 am

Re: ATL: TWENTY - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#48 Postby Sciencerocks » Wed Sep 29, 2021 10:37 am

Image
1 likes   

User avatar
CyclonicFury
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1968
Age: 25
Joined: Sun Jul 02, 2017 12:32 pm
Location: NC
Contact:

Re: ATL: TWENTY - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#49 Postby CyclonicFury » Wed Sep 29, 2021 1:15 pm

TXNT25 KNES 291800
TCSNTL

A. 20L (NONAME)

B. 29/1730Z

C. 7.8N

D. 25.7W

E. THREE/MET-11

F. T2.5/2.5

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...4.5/10 BANDING AROUND THE LLCC YIELDS A DT OF 2.5. MET IS
EQUAL TO 1.5 AND PT IS EQUAL TO 2.5. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...TUGGLE
0 likes   
NCSU B.S. in Meteorology Class of 2021. Tropical weather blogger at http://www.cyclonicfury.com. My forecasts and thoughts are NOT official, for official forecasts please consult the National Hurricane Center.

User avatar
Owasso
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 292
Joined: Sat Aug 22, 2020 11:14 pm
Location: Chicago, Illinois

Re: ATL: TWENTY - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#50 Postby Owasso » Wed Sep 29, 2021 1:59 pm

AL, 20, 2021092918, , BEST, 0, 81N, 251W, 35, 1005, TS, 34, NEQ, 50, 0, 0, 40, 1010, 180, 40, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, VICTOR, M, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 040,
3 likes   

Sciencerocks
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 7266
Age: 38
Joined: Thu Jul 06, 2017 1:51 am

Re: ATL: TWENTY - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#51 Postby Sciencerocks » Wed Sep 29, 2021 2:54 pm

Image
0 likes   

us89
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 399
Joined: Wed Sep 04, 2019 11:12 pm
Location: Tallahassee, FL

Re: ATL: TWENTY - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#52 Postby us89 » Wed Sep 29, 2021 3:00 pm

al202021 VICTOR 20210929 1800 8.1 -25.1 L TS 35 1005


Appears we will have Victor at 5.
0 likes   

User avatar
kevin
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1764
Age: 25
Joined: Wed Aug 28, 2019 4:35 am

Re: ATL: TWENTY - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#53 Postby kevin » Wed Sep 29, 2021 3:11 pm

us89 wrote:
al202021 VICTOR 20210929 1800 8.1 -25.1 L TS 35 1005


Appears we will have Victor at 5.


We are now 10 days ahead of 2005 and 15 days behind 2020. Based on that we might realistically end up at the Zeta/Eta equivalent of the auxiliary list (27/28 storms), which would be Foster or Gemma if activity from now on is similar to those seasons.
2 likes   

bob rulz
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1667
Age: 34
Joined: Sat Jan 28, 2006 7:30 pm
Location: Salt Lake City, Utah

Re: ATL: TWENTY - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#54 Postby bob rulz » Wed Sep 29, 2021 3:20 pm

Wow this is a huge system. I love these large WPAC-like disturbances that evolve way out here by the African coast.
0 likes   

User avatar
wwizard
Tropical Low
Tropical Low
Posts: 46
Joined: Tue Oct 27, 2020 11:28 pm
Location: TEXAS

Re: ATL: TWENTY - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#55 Postby wwizard » Wed Sep 29, 2021 3:23 pm

8.1N :eek:

That's got to be close to some records, yes?
2 likes   
Alicia, Allison, Ike, Harvey

User avatar
galaxy401
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2297
Age: 28
Joined: Sat Aug 25, 2012 9:04 pm
Location: Casa Grande, Arizona

Re: ATL: TWENTY - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#56 Postby galaxy401 » Wed Sep 29, 2021 3:27 pm

Could get a strong V name out of this. Vince was a minimal hurricane but I could see Victor getting a little stronger than that.
2 likes   
Got my eyes on moving right into Hurricane Alley: Florida.

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138789
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ATL: VICTOR - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#57 Postby cycloneye » Wed Sep 29, 2021 3:54 pm

0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138789
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ATL: VICTOR - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#58 Postby cycloneye » Wed Sep 29, 2021 3:54 pm

0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
Teban54
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1903
Joined: Sat May 19, 2018 1:19 pm

Re: ATL: TWENTY - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#59 Postby Teban54 » Wed Sep 29, 2021 3:54 pm

wwizard wrote:8.1N :eek:

That's got to be close to some records, yes?

Here are the southernmost storms at TS strength, as per HURDAT:

1. Three 1902: TS at 7.7N, 30.8W
2. Kirk 2018: TS at 8.1N, 22.9W
2. Victor 2021: TS at 8.1N, 25.1W (as per Best Track, 5pm advisory is further NW)
4. Five 1878: TS at 8.5N, 54.2W
5. Six 1896: TS at 8.7N, 44.2W (MDR hurricane in late October!)
6. Martha 1969: TS at 8.8N, 81.1W (it was previously a hurricane further north, and was actually dipping south and making landfall in Panama!)
7. Ivan 2004: TS at 8.9N 36.5W (this was during a WSW dip as a young TS, formation was further north)

Considering the inaccuracy of pre-satellite data in the open Atlantic, Victor is tied with Kirk 2018 for the southernmost TS in the satellite era, and also the only two TS to form south of 9N in the satellite era. I do remember back in 2018 some people were saying Kirk was classified too early and that its TS status in the eastern Atlantic was questionable, but Victor should be a clear-cut case.
Last edited by Teban54 on Wed Sep 29, 2021 4:30 pm, edited 1 time in total.
4 likes   

User avatar
DioBrando
Category 4
Category 4
Posts: 900
Age: 27
Joined: Sun Aug 12, 2018 12:45 pm

Re: ATL: VICTOR - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#60 Postby DioBrando » Wed Sep 29, 2021 4:28 pm

1 likes   
who can it be now
*du du du du du du*


Return to “2021”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 10 guests