ATL: VICTOR - Remnants - Discussion

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Re: ATL: TWENTY - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#61 Postby al78 » Wed Sep 29, 2021 4:31 pm

kevin wrote:
us89 wrote:
al202021 VICTOR 20210929 1800 8.1 -25.1 L TS 35 1005


Appears we will have Victor at 5.


We are now 10 days ahead of 2005 and 15 days behind 2020. Based on that we might realistically end up at the Zeta/Eta equivalent of the auxiliary list (27/28 storms), which would be Foster or Gemma if activity from now on is similar to those seasons.


I doubt we will see the insane activity we saw late season last year, that was at least partly driven by a moderate/strong La Nina optimising atmospheric conditions across the Caribbean Sea/Gulf. I'm not sure if we get a La Nina this autumn that it will be as strong and as influential on the Caribbean activity as last year.

Having said that, I have just realised we only have one more conventional name left on the list. I'm sure all these weak short lived storms that are picked up far more frequently than in the past with better instrumentation is the reason we get more seasons with very high storm counts these days.
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Re: ATL: VICTOR - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#62 Postby grapealcoholic » Wed Sep 29, 2021 5:12 pm

Convection firing near the core now. Important first step to tighten this thing up before it becomes a beast
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Re: ATL: VICTOR - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#63 Postby ConvergenceZone » Wed Sep 29, 2021 5:23 pm

I can't believe how lucky the USA is getting right now, being that all of these disturbances are developing way out in the eastern Atlantic as opposed to the Carib or Gulf....Talk about Luck!!! After IDA I was scared of what was to come. I know it's still somewhat early being that we are only going into October, but hopefully are luck will continue through the next few weeks..... But so far so good...
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Re: ATL: VICTOR - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#64 Postby Teban54 » Wed Sep 29, 2021 8:22 pm

Victor's convection has been consolidating pretty nicely and looks like a CDO is starting to form. Neither Larry nor Sam looked like that in the far Eastern Atlantic.
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Re: ATL: VICTOR - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#65 Postby hurricanes1234 » Wed Sep 29, 2021 8:26 pm

For being so far east in the Atlantic, this really has some intense convection going on.
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Re: ATL: VICTOR - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#66 Postby WiscoWx02 » Wed Sep 29, 2021 9:23 pm

Would be cool to see Victor be an overachiever to be honest. I mean, it is almost certainly the last Cabo Verde style storm of the season more likely than not so why the heck not cheer for it right?
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Re: ATL: VICTOR - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#67 Postby storminabox » Wed Sep 29, 2021 9:57 pm

Teban54 wrote:Victor's convection has been consolidating pretty nicely and looks like a CDO is starting to form. Neither Larry nor Sam looked like that in the far Eastern Atlantic.
https://i.ibb.co/1r8dpfk/25007109.gif


What a way to close out the MDR season
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Re: ATL: VICTOR - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#68 Postby Sciencerocks » Wed Sep 29, 2021 10:28 pm

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Re: ATL: VICTOR - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#69 Postby cycloneye » Thu Sep 30, 2021 9:57 am

Close call per 11 AM advisory to be a hurricane.

It should be noted that although this forecast no
longer explicitly shows Victor becoming a hurricane, it could occur
in a day or two before conditions become hostil
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Re: ATL: VICTOR - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#70 Postby Sciencerocks » Thu Sep 30, 2021 10:08 am

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Re: ATL: VICTOR - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#71 Postby Teban54 » Thu Sep 30, 2021 10:09 am


Very rigorous spin at both the low and mid levels. It just needs convection to be closer to the center instead of in the band to its west, an issue that both Larry and Sam had in their early stages in the same general region.

Update: Looks like the band is starting to poof just as I was writing this post. If that's indeed a trend, Victor should be able to refocus its energy to the center shortly.
Last edited by Teban54 on Thu Sep 30, 2021 10:37 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: VICTOR - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#72 Postby aspen » Thu Sep 30, 2021 10:24 am

Victor is in no hurry and is acting like it’s early September with plenty of time to organize over the MDR. Quite the opposite of the rapid organization depicted by the GFS, HWRF, and HMON. Vector will need to wrap up quickly in the next 24-48 hours before it gets ripped apart with both direction and magnitude.
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Re: ATL: VICTOR - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#73 Postby CyclonicFury » Thu Sep 30, 2021 1:00 pm

Not as convinced this will make it to hurricane intensity now. Models are trending weaker, and it remains very broad with sparse convection near the center. It's going to have to blow up tonight to have a chance to get there.
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Re: ATL: VICTOR - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#74 Postby CaribJam » Thu Sep 30, 2021 1:47 pm

How will a weaker Victor affect its track, if any?
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Re: ATL: VICTOR - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#75 Postby Argcane » Thu Sep 30, 2021 2:33 pm

This thing is gigantic. Looks like strong convection is starting to pop near the centre. It's running out of time to strengthen if it wants to reach hurricane intensity though.
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Re: ATL: VICTOR - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#76 Postby Sciencerocks » Thu Sep 30, 2021 2:47 pm

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Re: ATL: VICTOR - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#77 Postby AnnularCane » Thu Sep 30, 2021 3:46 pm

Can't get over how beautiful Victor is. Imagine if he had formed a month earlier.
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Re: ATL: VICTOR - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#78 Postby ElectricStorm » Thu Sep 30, 2021 3:51 pm

Yeah looks like its just too broad to too anything significant. That's unfortunate, I was really rooting for this one.
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Re: ATL: VICTOR - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#79 Postby Ubuntwo » Thu Sep 30, 2021 4:06 pm

Looks like the euro may have finally been right about one wave this year :lol:
Last edited by Ubuntwo on Thu Sep 30, 2021 4:10 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: VICTOR - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#80 Postby MarioProtVI » Thu Sep 30, 2021 4:08 pm

Victor is actually firing convection around the core as we speak. I think there’s still a very good chance it gets to hurricane intensity provided it continues firing around the center which it is well on its way to doing. Y’all write stuff off too easy.
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