ATL: VICTOR - Remnants - Discussion

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Ubuntwo
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Re: ATL: VICTOR - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#81 Postby Ubuntwo » Thu Sep 30, 2021 4:17 pm

MarioProtVI wrote:Victor is actually firing convection around the core as we speak. I think there’s still a very good chance it gets to hurricane intensity provided it continues firing around the center which it is well on its way to doing. Y’all write stuff off too easy.

Not necessarily writing anything off, Victor has just taken longer to consolidate than initially modeled. Would not be an issue if he had time - the window is pretty narrow:
As mentioned above, although the storm has been in favorable
conditions for strengthening during the past day or so, it has not
taken full advantage likely due to its broad structure. The
favorable environment for Victor should persist for about another 24
hours, so gradual strengthening is possible during that time period.
However, by the weekend, the models show Victor moving into a region
of moderate to strong southwesterly shear and a progressively drier
airmass.


That doesn't mean a hurricane is impossible (HWRF still brings it up to a low end 1) but higher end solutions are probably off the table.
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Re: ATL: VICTOR - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#82 Postby CyclonicFury » Thu Sep 30, 2021 7:23 pm

Supports at least 45 kts, though a case can 50 kt can potentially be made with the ASCAT low bias. Despite the stronger winds, the LLC remains somewhat elongated, which is not favorable for significant strengthening.
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Re: ATL: VICTOR - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#83 Postby cycloneye » Thu Sep 30, 2021 8:00 pm

Is up to 50kt.

AL, 20, 2021100100, , BEST, 0, 103N, 302W, 50, 997, TS
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Re: ATL: VICTOR - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#84 Postby CyclonicFury » Thu Sep 30, 2021 8:25 pm

Looks a lot better tonight. It has shedded its monsoonal-like banding and now looks more like a typical tropical storm. We'll have to see if this burst of convection can tighten up the circulation enough before shear increases tomorrow night.
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Re: ATL: VICTOR - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#85 Postby Sciencerocks » Thu Sep 30, 2021 8:48 pm

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Re: ATL: VICTOR - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#86 Postby ElectricStorm » Fri Oct 01, 2021 12:05 am

Both the HWRF and HMON have Victor peaking in the low 990s. If that verifies, Victor would likely be close to or at Cat 1 intensity. Hopefully that ends up being the case and he finds a way to get to hurricane strength, although it will likely be a close call either way.
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Re: ATL: VICTOR - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#87 Postby Sciencerocks » Fri Oct 01, 2021 11:12 am

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Re: ATL: VICTOR - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#88 Postby Teban54 » Fri Oct 01, 2021 1:50 pm

Oopsie. Somehow Victor was able to produce more, deeper convection as an invest than as a 55 kt TS.
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Re: ATL: VICTOR - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#89 Postby MGC » Fri Oct 01, 2021 2:25 pm

Victor is eating a SAL sand-witch. I don't expect much from TC......MGC
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Re: ATL: VICTOR - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#90 Postby Hammy » Fri Oct 01, 2021 5:14 pm

Teban54 wrote:Oopsie. Somehow Victor was able to produce more, deeper convection as an invest than as a 55 kt TS.


Seems to be the story of the MDR this year.
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Re: ATL: VICTOR - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#91 Postby Zonacane » Fri Oct 01, 2021 5:17 pm

Hammy wrote:
Teban54 wrote:Oopsie. Somehow Victor was able to produce more, deeper convection as an invest than as a 55 kt TS.


Seems to be the story of the MDR this year.

Stop
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Re: ATL: VICTOR - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#92 Postby Ubuntwo » Fri Oct 01, 2021 5:29 pm

Hammy wrote:
Teban54 wrote:Oopsie. Somehow Victor was able to produce more, deeper convection as an invest than as a 55 kt TS.


Seems to be the story of the MDR this year.

Except for the hurricane and two long tracking majors with one borderline cat 5 :P
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Re: ATL: VICTOR - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#93 Postby Sciencerocks » Fri Oct 01, 2021 6:05 pm

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Re: ATL: VICTOR - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#94 Postby Zonacane » Fri Oct 01, 2021 6:06 pm

Goodbye Victor
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Re: ATL: VICTOR - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#95 Postby cycloneye » Fri Oct 01, 2021 8:15 pm

Downhill from here.

AL, 20, 2021100200, , BEST, 0, 123N, 350W, 50, 999, TS
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Re: ATL: VICTOR - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#96 Postby hurricanes1234 » Fri Oct 01, 2021 9:20 pm

This one was rather anticlimactic, especially given its name which would suggest otherwise. :lol:
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Re: ATL: VICTOR - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#97 Postby Teban54 » Sat Oct 02, 2021 12:53 am

No victory for Victor.

I was so ready to post "Victory for Victor!" when it becomes a hurricane.
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Re: ATL: VICTOR - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#98 Postby Ubuntwo » Sat Oct 02, 2021 10:02 am

We hardly knew ya, Victor.
The strong shear is not forecast to abate over the cyclone for the
foreseeable future and very dry, African dust-laden air lies in
the path of Victor. Therefore, it is unlikely that organized deep
convection will redevelop near the center of the cyclone. Because of
this, Victor is now expected to become a remnant low by tonight.
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Re: ATL: VICTOR - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#99 Postby wxman57 » Sat Oct 02, 2021 10:38 am

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Re: ATL: VICTOR - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#100 Postby aspen » Sat Oct 02, 2021 11:07 am

Sadly, Vector did not become a late-season MDR hurricane with direction and magnitude.
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