ATL: VICTOR - Models

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ATL: VICTOR - Models

#1 Postby Subtrop » Mon Sep 27, 2021 8:27 am

Only Model runs here.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Models

#2 Postby cycloneye » Mon Sep 27, 2021 8:27 am

* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST AL902021 09/27/21 12 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 20 20 21 24 33 42 49 54 60 68 76 82 85 87 86
V (KT) LAND 20 20 20 20 21 24 33 42 49 54 60 68 76 82 85 87 86
V (KT) LGEM 20 20 20 20 21 21 22 23 25 28 32 37 41 48 56 62 62
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 5 9 14 15 19 13 13 12 7 6 8 4 5 4 7 11 16
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 10 7 7 5 4 6 3 6 5 11 9 11 5 2 6 8 5
SHEAR DIR 304 317 325 319 317 323 5 31 50 308 6 40 75 101 209 233 240
SST (C) 27.8 28.3 28.5 28.6 28.6 28.4 28.6 28.9 28.9 29.0 29.1 28.8 28.4 28.4 28.0 28.0 28.1
POT. INT. (KT) 137 142 144 145 145 142 144 149 149 151 152 148 143 143 138 137 139
ADJ. POT. INT. 137 142 144 145 145 142 144 149 149 151 152 148 143 143 138 137 137
200 MB T (C) -54.1 -53.8 -54.1 -54.3 -54.2 -54.3 -54.5 -54.6 -54.0 -53.9 -54.2 -54.2 -54.5 -54.4 -54.2 -54.0 -54.1
200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.2 -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.2
TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 5 5 5 5 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 7
700-500 MB RH 70 68 71 73 73 72 75 69 61 55 56 61 67 69 69 66 68
MODEL VTX (KT) 9 7 7 7 8 9 12 13 13 12 13 12 11 9 9 8 7
850 MB ENV VOR 15 18 21 17 6 10 11 7 31 39 38 43 33 7 -8 4 18
200 MB DIV 69 72 82 88 105 128 147 107 5 -44 -17 16 63 71 60 65 29
700-850 TADV -1 -1 -3 0 -1 -4 -4 -3 0 -4 -4 -2 -1 1 1 2 5
LAND (KM) 178 350 480 581 665 792 890 978 1078 1202 1312 1417 1562 1675 1676 1708 1643
LAT (DEG N) 7.2 7.1 6.9 6.7 6.5 6.4 6.4 6.5 6.7 6.8 7.3 8.2 9.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x
LONG(DEG W) 14.4 16.0 17.2 18.3 19.2 21.0 22.4 23.6 24.9 26.3 27.7 29.1 30.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x
STM SPEED (KT) 18 14 12 10 9 8 6 7 6 8 8 9 10 11 12 11 11
HEAT CONTENT 8 13 15 19 20 16 22 39 43 37 34 25 15 12 15 21 23

FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 21 CX,CY: -20/ 0
T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 701 (MEAN=620)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.2 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 69.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.6

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16.
SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -1. 2. 8. 16. 21. 26. 31. 36. 40. 45. 46. 48. 47.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 3. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 7. 5. 3.
PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0.
200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5.
THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1.
700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -6. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -7.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 1. 2. 1. 0. -0. -3. -4. -7. -8. -9. -10.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6.
STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 13. 22. 30. 34. 40. 48. 56. 62. 65. 67. 66.

CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 7.2 14.4

** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902021 INVEST 09/27/21 12 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)

Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.5 30.1 to 2.3 0.63 999.0
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 15.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.10 999.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.63 999.0
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.00 0.0
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 51.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.89 999.0
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.9 to -2.9 0.56 999.0
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 122.9 28.3 to 146.3 0.80 999.0
D200 (10**7s-1) : 83.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.52 999.0
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 29.2 100.0 to 0.0 0.71 999.0

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%)

Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic: 5.2% 17.8% 11.3% 6.2% 1.6% 8.1% 8.6% 21.8%
Bayesian: 0.6% 0.5% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.7% 0.9%
Consensus: 2.0% 6.1% 3.9% 2.1% 0.5% 2.8% 3.1% 7.6%
DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0%

** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL902021 INVEST 09/27/2021 12 UTC **
TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48)
CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY
PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)

** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE **
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
>24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 20 20 20 21 24 33 42 49 54 60 68 76 82 85 87 86
18HR AGO 20 19 19 19 20 23 32 41 48 53 59 67 75 81 84 86 85
12HR AGO 20 17 16 16 17 20 29 38 45 50 56 64 72 78 81 83 82
6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS
NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT
IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT
IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Models

#3 Postby Teban54 » Mon Sep 27, 2021 8:42 am

Wow that's quite a bit more aggressive than I thought. Maybe Helene 2018 would be a good analog?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Models

#4 Postby otowntiger » Mon Sep 27, 2021 12:06 pm

Are the early indication for a recurve on this one? Looks kinda pointed in that direction based upon the orientation of the red oval blob.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Models

#5 Postby cycloneye » Mon Sep 27, 2021 2:22 pm

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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Models

#6 Postby zhukm29 » Mon Sep 27, 2021 10:35 pm

Just for fun, the latest Euro is predicting a Fujiwhara and merge with 91L :lol:

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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Models

#7 Postby Teban54 » Mon Sep 27, 2021 11:01 pm

zhukm29 wrote:Just for fun, the latest Euro is predicting a Fujiwhara and merge with 91L :lol:

https://i.ibb.co/zZ62R6w/ecmwf-uv850-vort-atl-fh24-240.gif

I noticed the most recent runs today generally trended towards some sort of interaction between 90L and 91L. Not all models explicitly show a merger, but they still have enough interactions to send both OTS and/or have one of them torn apart. Previously, models were more insistent on 91L entering the Caribbean.

Maybe models are just having trouble resolving just exactly how far will 90L and 91L be from one another, which will have huge impacts on track, especially for 91L.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Models

#8 Postby Shell Mound » Tue Sep 28, 2021 2:44 am


The fact that it starts below 10°N yet heads OTS shows how weak ridging is on these runs.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Models

#9 Postby aspen » Tue Sep 28, 2021 5:10 am

00z HWRF RIs this into a major. Typical HWRF bullishness, but it also intensifies 91L into a weak hurricane, so if both verify, there would be two simultaneous hurricanes in the eastern MDR in late September. Has that ever happened before?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Models

#10 Postby aspen » Tue Sep 28, 2021 6:23 am

Seems like all of the models are favoring 90L now. Yesterday, most favored 91L, especially the GFS.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Models

#11 Postby grapealcoholic » Tue Sep 28, 2021 6:12 pm

HWRF coming in spicy with the pinhole tomorrow night

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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Models

#12 Postby Teban54 » Tue Sep 28, 2021 6:52 pm

Current intensity guidance suggests minimal Cat 1. Given that 90L looks pretty good now and that all intensity guidance were too conservative with Sam, I wouldn't be surprised if it peaks higher. Too bad we won't get another long tracker out of this, as 90L recurves too early and gets sent into colder waters.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Models

#13 Postby kevin » Wed Sep 29, 2021 3:15 am

00z HWRF intensity readout.

--- 00z HWRF ---
PEAK PRESSURE; +72hr; 967.5MB; 88.5KT; CAT2
PEAK WIND; +66hr; 967.6MB; 92.7KT; CAT2
FINAL LOCATION; +120hr; 21.2N; 36.5W; 88 mi SE of 18z HWRF
ACE; 11.6

Time / Pressure (mbar) / Wind (kt)
00 / 1009 / 30
03 / 1002 / 34
06 / 990 / 58 <- TS
09 / 997 / 43
12 / 997 / 50
15 / 993 / 49
18 / 991 / 63
21 / 994 / 52
24 / 995 / 50
27 / 993 / 50
30 / 989 / 56
33 / 987 / 55
36 / 982 / 69 <- cat 1
39 / 979 / 66
42 / 979 / 67
45 / 979 / 70
48 / 978 / 69
51 / 976 / 74
54 / 974 / 83 <- cat 2
57 / 973 / 86
60 / 973 / 83
63 / 971 / 80
66 / 968 / 93
69 / 968 / 92
72 / 968 / 89
75 / 969 / 84
78 / 968 / 89
81 / 969 / 92
84 / 971 / 89
87 / 971 / 88
90 / 972 / 80
93 / 974 / 85
96 / 973 / 83
99 / 974 / 81
102 / 976 / 84
105 / 976 / 80
108 / 979 / 78
111 / 981 / 89
114 / 986 / 77
117 / 991 / 64
120 / 995 / 61
123 / 1006 / 46
126 / 1010 / 42
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Re: ATL: VICTOR - Models

#14 Postby kevin » Thu Sep 30, 2021 3:21 am

00z HWRF intensity readout.

--- 00z HWRF ---
PEAK PRESSURE; +63hr; 976.6MB; 71.2KT; CAT1
PEAK WIND; +60hr; 978.7MB; 80.3KT; CAT1
FINAL LOCATION; +120hr; 35.2N; 36.5W; 132 mi NW of 18z HWRF
ACE_0-120hr; 7.7

Time / Pressure (mbar) / Wind (kt)
00 / 1004 / 39
03 / 996 / 58
06 / 997 / 50
09 / 996 / 56
12 / 995 / 49
15 / 991 / 56
18 / 988 / 56
21 / 989 / 56
24 / 988 / 57
27 / 986 / 61
30 / 982 / 67 <- cat 1
33 / 985 / 64
36 / 985 / 68
39 / 983 / 66
42 / 983 / 67
45 / 986 / 59
48 / 986 / 62
51 / 981 / 73
54 / 983 / 67
57 / 978 / 75
60 / 979 / 80
63 / 977 / 71
66 / 979 / 75
69 / 981 / 71
72 / 984 / 64
75 / 987 / 68
78 / 991 / 58
81 / 993 / 55
84 / 997 / 50
87 / 998 / 51
90 / 996 / 53
93 / 1000 / 53
96 / 1000 / 57
99 / 1003 / 50
102 / 999 / 55
105 / 1003 / 50
108 / 1005 / 55
111 / 1007 / 48
114 / 1006 / 46
117 / 998 / 58
120 / 998 / 50
123 / 998 / 49
126 / 996 / 55
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