ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

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Nancy Smar
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ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

#1 Postby Nancy Smar » Mon Sep 27, 2021 7:11 pm

Only model runs here.
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cycloneye
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

#2 Postby cycloneye » Mon Sep 27, 2021 7:46 pm

* GFS version *
* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST AL912021 09/28/21 00 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 32 37 42 55 66 74 76 75 73 69 66 63 61 60 59
V (KT) LAND 25 28 32 37 42 55 66 74 76 75 73 69 66 63 61 60 59
V (KT) LGEM 25 27 30 33 36 46 59 70 74 71 61 49 40 34 29 26 24
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 11 10 12 12 12 11 3 8 12 21 26 23 23 27 23 30 32
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -5 -6 -6 -7 -2 9 11 18 13 10 8 9 4 1 -1 0
SHEAR DIR 74 66 69 64 70 41 76 251 217 229 236 238 227 213 218 218 229
SST (C) 29.0 29.1 29.1 29.2 29.3 29.3 29.2 29.0 28.6 28.2 28.0 28.0 27.8 27.2 27.1 27.1 27.4
POT. INT. (KT) 151 152 151 152 154 153 152 150 144 139 136 136 134 127 125 125 129
ADJ. POT. INT. 151 152 151 151 152 151 150 149 144 139 134 133 129 120 117 117 120
200 MB T (C) -54.4 -55.1 -55.1 -54.5 -54.8 -54.7 -54.3 -54.5 -54.5 -54.7 -54.4 -54.5 -54.2 -54.1 -54.1 -54.4 -54.5
200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.4 -0.4 -0.4 -0.2 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0
TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 6 6 6 7 7 8 8 8 6 6 5 6 6 7
700-500 MB RH 74 73 70 69 68 67 62 60 57 58 58 60 63 64 60 56 58
MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 9 10 11 15 17 21 20 21 20 17 14 13 11 9 8
850 MB ENV VOR 43 43 36 34 30 26 32 50 70 67 56 77 69 67 52 36 24
200 MB DIV 123 136 128 128 129 44 26 20 52 50 46 20 28 21 21 48 50
700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 5 9 14 6 8 5 2 2 5
LAND (KM) 1502 1442 1397 1349 1323 1277 1284 1318 1380 1463 1477 1486 1576 1650 1676 1668 1662
LAT (DEG N) 8.0 7.9 7.8 7.6 7.5 7.4 7.7 8.3 9.2 10.2 11.4 12.8 14.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x
LONG(DEG W) 32.0 32.8 33.4 33.9 34.2 34.9 35.4 36.1 37.2 38.7 40.0 41.0 41.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x
STM SPEED (KT) 9 7 6 4 4 3 4 6 8 9 9 9 10 10 9 10 10
HEAT CONTENT 27 28 30 34 36 38 36 27 18 14 13 13 15 13 11 23 26

FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 0
T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 451 (MEAN=620)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.5 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 50.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 19.6

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16.
SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -1. 2. 8. 15. 20. 25. 29. 33. 37. 40. 41. 41. 40.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 5. 2. -0. -1. -3. -5. -7. -9.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 3. 1. -1. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 5. 4. 3. 1. -0. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4.
PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1.
200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6.
THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1.
700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 0. 1. 4. 7. 11. 10. 11. 10. 4. -0. -3. -6. -9. -10.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 2. 2.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0.
GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 12. 17. 30. 41. 49. 51. 50. 48. 44. 41. 38. 36. 35. 34.

CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 8.0 32.0

** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912021 INVEST 09/28/21 00 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)

Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 3.7
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.5 30.1 to 2.3 0.67 1.7
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 31.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.20 0.5
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.71 1.9
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 67.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.87 1.9
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.9 to -2.9 0.53 0.8
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 126.5 28.3 to 146.3 0.83 0.8
D200 (10**7s-1) : 128.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.74 0.7
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 4.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 2.2 times climatological mean (10.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.8%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 3.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%)

Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 5.2% 23.8% 12.4% 8.5% 0.0% 0.0% 12.2% 0.0%
Logistic: 6.6% 54.0% 24.7% 10.6% 6.0% 26.5% 42.8% 47.7%
Bayesian: 1.3% 18.6% 3.7% 0.5% 0.3% 5.0% 41.9% 5.3%
Consensus: 4.4% 32.1% 13.6% 6.5% 2.1% 10.5% 32.3% 17.6%
DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0%

** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912021 INVEST 09/28/2021 00 UTC **
TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48)
CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY
PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)

** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE **
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
>24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 28 32 37 42 55 66 74 76 75 73 69 66 63 61 60 59
18HR AGO 25 24 28 33 38 51 62 70 72 71 69 65 62 59 57 56 55
12HR AGO 25 22 21 26 31 44 55 63 65 64 62 58 55 52 50 49 48
6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 20 33 44 52 54 53 51 47 44 41 39 38 37
NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT
IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT
IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT
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