ATL: VICTOR - Advisories

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ATL: VICTOR - Advisories

#1 Postby cycloneye » Wed Sep 29, 2021 9:36 am

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Twenty Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202021
200 PM CVT Wed Sep 29 2021

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE FAR EASTERN TROPICAL
ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM CVT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...8.3N 24.6W
ABOUT 535 MI...860 KM S OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM CVT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Twenty
was located near latitude 8.3 North, longitude 24.6 West. The
depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22
km/h), and this motion is expected to continue during the next
couple of days, followed by a turn to the northwest.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Steady strengthening is forecast, and the depression is expected to
become a tropical storm tonight and a hurricane in a couple of days.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 PM CVT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


Tropical Depression Twenty Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202021
200 PM CVT Wed Sep 29 2021

The area of low pressure located over the far eastern tropical
Atlantic that NHC has been monitoring has now become a tropical
depression, the twentieth tropical cyclone of the 2021 Atlantic
hurricane season. Satellite images indicate that the system is
producing a large area of showers and thunderstorms that have become
fairly well organized around the center. An ASCAT-A pass from a
few hours ago indicated that the system now has a well-defined
circulation and that the radius of maximum wind is 30-40 n mi north
of the center. The initial intensity is set at 30 kt based on the
ASCAT data and the T2.0/30 kt Dvorak classifications from TAFB and
SAB. The minimum pressure of 1007 mb is partially based on data
from a ship report that passed near the depression.

Based on satellite fixes, the depression appears to be moving
west-northwestward at about 12 kt. The system is currently located
on the south side of a deep-layer ridge, and that feature should
keep the cyclone on a west-northwest track during the next couple of
days. After that time, the models show a mid- to upper-level low
developing over the central tropical Atlantic, which erodes the
western portion of the ridge. This change in the steering flow
should cause the system to turn northwestward on Friday and then
northward toward the end of the forecast period. Although the
models generally agree on the evolution of the large-scale pattern,
there are notable differences in the details, which leads to a fair
amount of spread concerning when and where the turn to the north
occurs. The GFS is farthest east while the ECMWF shows the
westernmost solution. The NHC track forecast lies between those
models and is near the TVCA multi-model consensus.

The depression is expected to remain in conducive environmental
conditions for strengthening during the next 2 or 3 days. During
that time period, the storm is forecast to move over 28-29 deg C
waters while embedded within an airmass of high mid-level moisture
and very low wind shear (less than 10 kt). Therefore, steady
strengthening seems likely, and the NHC forecast brings the system
to a tropical storm by tonight and a hurricane in a couple of days.
Beyond a few days, however, the models show a pronounced increase
in southwesterly shear and a notably drier atmosphere. These
unfavorable conditions should end the opportunity for strengthening
and promote a weakening trend. The NHC intensity forecast is a near
a blend of the HCCA, IVCN, and IVDR consensus models.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/1500Z 8.3N 24.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 30/0000Z 8.8N 25.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 30/1200Z 9.5N 27.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 01/0000Z 10.3N 29.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 01/1200Z 11.2N 31.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
60H 02/0000Z 12.4N 33.7W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 02/1200Z 14.0N 35.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 03/1200Z 18.4N 38.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 04/1200Z 24.3N 40.9W 45 KT 50 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
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Re: ATL: VICTOR - Advisories

#2 Postby cycloneye » Wed Sep 29, 2021 3:44 pm

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Victor Advisory Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202021
800 PM CVT Wed Sep 29 2021

...VICTOR FORMS OVER THE EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM CVT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...8.3N 25.5W
ABOUT 540 MI...870 KM S OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM CVT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Victor was
located near latitude 8.3 North, longitude 25.5 West. Victor is
moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h) and this
motion is expected to continue during the next couple of days,
followed by a turn to the northwest.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 40 mph (65 km/h)
with higher gusts. Steady strengthening is forecast, and Victor is
expected to become a hurricane in a day or two.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
north of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 AM CVT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi



Tropical Storm Victor Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202021
800 PM CVT Wed Sep 29 2021

The cloud pattern continues to exhibit a large circulation with
numerous curved bands surrounding the center. The strongest
thunderstorms remain on the system's west side. The latest Dvorak
estimates from TAFB and SAB have both increased to 2.5/35 kt, and on
that basis, the cyclone has been upgraded to a 35-kt tropical storm.

Victor is still on a west-northwest course at about 11 kt. There has
been little change to the track forecast reasoning. The cyclone is
expected to continue west-northwestward during the next couple of
days as it remains steered by the flow on the south side of a
deep-layer ridge. By late Friday, however, the models show the
western periphery of the ridge being eroded due to a mid- to
upper-level low over the subtropical central Atlantic. As a result,
the cyclone should turn northwestward by Friday night and then
northward late this weekend or early next week. There remains a
fair amount of spread in the timing and location of the northward
turn with the GFS and HWRF still on the right side of the guidance
envelope and the ECMWF showing the slowest and westernmost solution.
Overall, the consensus models have not changed much and neither has
the official track forecast.

The storm is expected to remain in conducive environmental
conditions for strengthening during the next couple of days. During
that time period, Victor is forecast to move over 28-29 deg C
waters while embedded within a moist airmass with very low wind
shear (less than 10 kt). Rapid intensification sometimes occurs
when conditions are this favorable, however, since the storm is
broad and does not yet have an inner core, gradual strengthening
seems more reasonable. The NHC forecast brings Victor to hurricane
intensity in 36 hours. In a few days, however, the models show a
pronounced increase in southwesterly shear and a notably drier
atmosphere. These unfavorable conditions should end the opportunity
for strengthening and promote a weakening trend. The NHC intensity
forecast is similar to the previous one and remains near a blend of
the HCCA, IVCN, and IVDR consensus models.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/2100Z 8.3N 25.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 30/0600Z 8.8N 26.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 30/1800Z 9.5N 28.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 01/0600Z 10.3N 30.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 01/1800Z 11.4N 32.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
60H 02/0600Z 12.8N 34.1W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 02/1800Z 14.7N 35.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 03/1800Z 19.3N 38.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 04/1800Z 24.9N 40.9W 40 KT 45 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
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Re: ATL: VICTOR - Advisories

#3 Postby cycloneye » Wed Sep 29, 2021 9:48 pm

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Victor Advisory Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202021
200 AM CVT Thu Sep 30 2021

...VICTOR MOVING GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN
ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM CVT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...8.4N 26.7W
ABOUT 555 MI...895 KM SSW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM CVT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Victor was
located near latitude 8.4 North, longitude 26.7 West. Victor is
moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h) and this
general motion is expected to continue through Friday, followed by
a turn toward the northwest late Friday or Friday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Steady strengthening is forecast, and Victor is expected to become
a hurricane in a day or two.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 AM CVT.

$$
Forecaster Beven


Tropical Storm Victor Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202021
200 AM CVT Thu Sep 30 2021

Victor has changed little in organization since the last advisory,
with a large circulation and a complex of convective bands mainly in
the northern semicircle. Satellite intensity estimates from TAFB
and SAB remain at or near 35 kt, as do other objective intensity
estimates. Thus, the initial intensity is still 35 kt, although the
most recent ASCAT-A data suggests the possibility that this is a
little generous.

The center has moved or re-formed a bit to the west during the past
several hours, although the longer-term motion still seems to be to
the west-northwest at 290/11 kt. Other than the more westerly
initial position, there is little change to the forecast philosophy
or the forecast track since the last advisory. Victor is forecast
to move west-northwestward for the next 36 h or so as it is steered
by the flow on the south side of a deep-layer ridge. By 48 h, the
global models forecast the western periphery of the ridge to get
eroded by to a mid- to upper-level low over the subtropical central
Atlantic. This evolution should cause the cyclone to turn
northwestward at that time, followed by a northward turn by the end
of the forecast period. There remains a fair amount of spread in
the timing and location of the northward turn with the GFS and HWRF
still on the right side of the guidance envelope and the ECMWF
showing the slowest and westernmost solution. The new forecast track
is in the center of the guidance envelope and lies very close to the
various consensus models.

For the next 36-48 h, Victor is expected to remain in an environment
of warm sea surface temperatures and light vertical wind shear.
This should allow steady strengthening, and rapid strengthening
cannot be ruled out if the storm develops a better defined inner
core. Based on a steady strengthening scenario, the new intensity
forecast is identical to the previous one, taking Victor to
hurricane intensity in 36 h with a peak intensity of 70 kt in 48 h.
After that time, the aforementioned upper-level low is expected to
cause significant shear over Victor while the cyclone moves into a
drier air mass. This combination should cause the cyclone to
weaken, and it is possible Victor could weaken faster than currently
forecast after 60 hours. The new official intensity forecast lies
near the upper edge of the intensity guidance.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/0300Z 8.4N 26.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 30/1200Z 8.9N 28.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 01/0000Z 9.7N 30.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 01/1200Z 10.6N 32.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 02/0000Z 11.8N 33.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
60H 02/1200Z 13.4N 35.1W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 03/0000Z 15.5N 36.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 04/0000Z 20.5N 39.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 05/0000Z 26.0N 41.0W 40 KT 45 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven
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Re: ATL: VICTOR - Advisories

#4 Postby cycloneye » Thu Sep 30, 2021 4:26 am

[Div][
Tropical Storm Victor Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202021
800 AM CVT Thu Sep 30 2021

Victor is gradually getting better organized. AMSR2 microwave
data from 0300 UTC showed that the low-level circulation has become
more defined, with most convective banding features located west and
southwest of the center. Victor's intensity is now estimated to be
40 kt based on Dvorak estimates of T3.0 and T2.5 from TAFB and SAB,
respectively, and objective numbers from UW-CIMSS around 40 kt.

Victor's vector is toward the west-northwest (290 degrees) at 11
kt, and this heading should continue for the next 36 hours while
the storm is located to the south a deep-layer ridge located over
the subtropical eastern and central Atlantic. In about 2 days, a
mid- to upper-level low is forecast to develop over the central
Atlantic, causing Victor to curve around the western periphery of
the ridge, which gets shunted eastward between the Azores and the
Canary Islands. The track models are in generally good agreement
on this scenario, and most of them are clustered tightly among each
other. Two notable exceptions, which are discounted at this time,
are the HWRF and ECMWF models. The HWRF, which is stronger than
the other models, is way off to the east, while the ECMWF lies
off to the south and west, a tendency that we've observed recently
with other storms in the deep tropics. The NHC track forecast is
not changed much from the previous iteration and lies close to the
GFS, HCCA, Florida State Superensemble, and TVCA solutions.

If the low-level circulation is in fact becoming better defined as
shown by microwave imagery, Victor should be able to continue
strengthening for the next couple of days in an environment of low
vertical shear and over warm waters of roughly 28 degrees Celsius.
The NHC intensity forecast is near the upper end of the guidance
during this period and continues to show Victor reaching hurricane
strength in about 36 hours. Once the aforementioned mid- to
upper-level low forms, strong southerly to southwesterly deep-layer
shear is expected to develop over Victor and induce a weakening
trend in about 3 days. The intensity forecast has been lowered a
bit during the latter part of the forecast period given the trends
in the intensity models, but it is not as low as the HCCA and IVCN
aids. Interestingly, many of the global models suggest that the
shear could be so strong that Victor might weaken to a depression
or even degenerate into a remnant low by day 5.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/0900Z 8.7N 27.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 30/1800Z 9.4N 28.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 01/0600Z 10.2N 30.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 01/1800Z 11.2N 32.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 02/0600Z 12.6N 33.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
60H 02/1800Z 14.4N 35.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 03/0600Z 16.6N 37.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 04/0600Z 22.0N 40.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 05/0600Z 27.3N 41.9W 35 KT 40 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg
/Div]
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Re: ATL: VICTOR - Advisories

#5 Postby cycloneye » Thu Sep 30, 2021 9:55 am

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Victor Advisory Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202021
200 PM CVT Thu Sep 30 2021

...VICTOR FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE EASTERN TROPICAL
ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM CVT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...9.5N 28.9W
ABOUT 555 MI...895 KM SW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM CVT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Victor was
located near latitude 9.5 North, longitude 28.9 West. Victor is
moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h). A
west-northwest to northwest motion over the eastern tropical
Atlantic is expected through the weekend.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast, and Victor could be near
hurricane strength on Friday. A weakening trend is expected to
begin over the weekend.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
north of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 PM CVT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi



Tropical Storm Victor Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202021
200 PM CVT Thu Sep 30 2021

Victor remains a sprawling tropical storm with numerous curved bands
surrounding the center. The associated convection remains most
organized on the storm's west side. The latest Dvorak estimates are
largely unchanged and range from 35 to 45 kt. In addition, an
ASCAT-B pass from around 12Z showed maximum winds in the 35-40 kt
range. Based on all of this data, the initial intensity is held at
40 kt. The ASCAT data also showed that the wind field is quite
broad with tropical-storm-force winds extending about 90 n mi north
of the center.

Victor is still moving west-northwestward, or 290 degrees, at 12 kt.
The storm is forecast to continue on that same general track for
another day or so as it remains on the south side of a deep-layer
ridge over the subtropical eastern Atlantic. By late Friday, a mid-
to upper-level low is expected to form over the central Atlantic,
and that feature should erode the western portion of the ridge. As
a result, Victor is expected to turn northwestward by the weekend
and then northward early next week when it is forecast to move in
the flow between the ridge and the low. The model tracks have
converged compared to yesterday, but the ECMWF remains the slowest
and westernmost solution and the HWRF is still the easternmost
model. The NHC track forecast is nudged to the west of the
previous one and lies close to the various consensus aids and is in
fair agreement with the GFS.

The storm has about another 36 hours in conducive environmental
conditions of very low wind shear, a moist mid-level airmass, and
warm 28-29 degree C SSTs. Therefore, intensification seems likely
during that time period, but given the broad nature of the system's
wind field, Victor will likely gain strength slowly during that time
period. However, in a couple of days, the models show a significant
increase in southwesterly shear and a progressively drier airmass.
These negative factors for the storm along with slightly cooler SSTs
should cause Victor to lose strength. In fact, some of the models
suggest that Victor could dissipate by the end of the forecast
period. The new NHC intensity forecast is a little lower than the
previous one. It should be noted that although this forecast no
longer explicitly shows Victor becoming a hurricane, it could occur
in a day or two before conditions become hostile. This forecast
lies near the high end of the model guidance.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/1500Z 9.5N 28.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 01/0000Z 10.2N 30.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 01/1200Z 11.1N 32.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 02/0000Z 12.4N 34.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 02/1200Z 13.9N 35.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
60H 03/0000Z 15.7N 37.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 03/1200Z 17.9N 39.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 04/1200Z 23.2N 41.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 05/1200Z 28.0N 42.4W 30 KT 35 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
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Re: ATL: VICTOR - Advisories

#6 Postby cycloneye » Thu Sep 30, 2021 3:49 pm

Tropical Storm Victor Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202021
500 PM AST Thu Sep 30 2021

Victor has been relatively steady in strength during the past
several hours. Satellite images continue to show that the storm has
a large circulation with numerous curved bands surrounding the
center. However, recent microwave images indicate that the cyclone
has yet to develop a well-defined inner core, which is likely why
the system has not strengthened much despite the favorable
environmental conditions. The Dvorak classifications are again
unchanged and range from 35 to 45 kt, and on this basis, the initial
intensity is held at 40 kt.

Victor is still moving west-northwestward, or 290 degrees, at 12 kt.
The storm is forecast to continue on that same general track for
about another day as it remains on the south side of a deep-layer
ridge over the subtropical eastern Atlantic. By late Friday, a mid-
to upper-level low is expected to form over the central Atlantic,
and that feature should erode the western portion of the ridge. As
a result, Victor is expected to turn northwestward by the weekend
and then northward by early next week when it is forecast to move in
the flow between the ridge and the low. The GFS has shifted
westward this cycle and is now not far from the ECMWF track. The
new NHC forecast track is nudged westward toward a consensus of the
GFS, ECMWF, UKMET, and HMON models. The standard consensus aids
could be too far to the east since the latest run of the HWRF, which
is a member of those models, is a significant outlier to the east.

As mentioned above, although the storm has been in favorable
conditions for strengthening during the past day or so, it has not
taken full advantage likely due to its broad structure. The
favorable environment for Victor should persist for about another 24
hours, so gradual strengthening is possible during that time period.
However, by the weekend, the models show Victor moving into a region
of moderate to strong southwesterly shear and a progressively drier
airmass. These negative factors for the storm along with slightly
cooler SSTs should cause Victor to lose strength this weekend and
early next week. In fact, some of the models suggest that Victor
could dissipate by the end of the forecast period. The new NHC
intensity forecast is again a little lower than the previous one,
trending toward the HCCA, IVCN, and IVDR consensus aids.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/2100Z 9.9N 30.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 01/0600Z 10.6N 31.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 01/1800Z 11.6N 33.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 02/0600Z 12.9N 34.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 02/1800Z 14.5N 36.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 03/0600Z 16.4N 38.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 03/1800Z 18.9N 40.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 04/1800Z 23.6N 42.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
120H 05/1800Z 28.0N 42.9W 30 KT 35 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
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Re: ATL: VICTOR - Advisories

#7 Postby cycloneye » Thu Sep 30, 2021 9:50 pm

Tropical Storm Victor Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202021
1100 PM AST Thu Sep 30 2021

Satellite imagery shows that Victor has become a little better
organized since the last advisory, with the convective banding
becoming better defined near the center in the northeastern
semicircle. Recent ASCAT data showed winds of 45-47 kt about 70 n
mi north of the center, and based on the likelihood of some
undersampling the initial intensity is increased to 50 kt. Although
the scatterometer showed a stronger storm, the data suggested the
system has not yet formed a well-defined inner core.

The initial motion is now 300/10 kt. Victor is expected to continue
west-northwestward for another 24 h or so on the south side of a
deep-layer ridge over the subtropical eastern Atlantic. After that
time, a developing mid- to upper-level low over the central Atlantic
is expected to erode the western portion of the ridge. As a result,
Victor is expected to turn northwestward by the weekend and then
northward by early next week when it is forecast to move in the flow
between the ridge and the low. The guidance has changed little
since the previous advisory, with the HWRF remaining a significant
outlier to the east. Thus, the new forecast track is a little to
the west of the various consensus aids that include the HWRF. The
new forecast is basically an update of the previous forecast.

Victor should remain in a favorable environment for the next 24 h or
so, and the intensity forecast shows more strengthening during that
time, After that, the upper-level low should cause moderate to
strong southwesterly shear over the storm, and by the end of the
forecast period it will be moving into a drier air mass. This
combination should cause Victor to steadily weaken after 24 h. The
new NHC forecast has some adjustments from the previous forecast,
and it now calls for the cyclone to decay to a remnant low by 120 h.
The intensity forecast lies near the upper edge of the intensity
guidance through 48-60 h, and thereafter is close to the intensity
consensus.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/0300Z 10.6N 30.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 01/1200Z 11.3N 32.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 02/0000Z 12.4N 33.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 02/1200Z 13.9N 35.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 03/0000Z 15.5N 36.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
60H 03/1200Z 17.7N 38.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 04/0000Z 20.2N 40.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 05/0000Z 25.0N 43.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
120H 06/0000Z 28.5N 43.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Beven
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Re: ATL: VICTOR - Advisories

#8 Postby cycloneye » Fri Oct 01, 2021 4:34 am

Tropical Storm Victor Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202021
500 AM AST Fri Oct 01 2021

Infrared and microwave satellite imagery indicate that Victor has
continued to become a little better organized, with a 0342Z AMSR2
overpass showing that a 75-percent-closed mid-level eye feature had
formed. However, both data sources also revealed that a pronounced
dry slot has formed in the southeastern quadrant. Upper-level
outflow remains well established in all quadrants except to the
south where it is somewhat restricted. Despite the slightly improved
satellite signatures, subjective and objective intensity
classifications have not changed since the previous advisory, so the
intensity remains at 50 kt for this advisory.

The initial motion estimate is 305/13 kt. Victor has made a slight
jog toward the northwest, but this is likely a temporary motion due
to redevelopment of the center farther into the convective cloud
shield. The cyclone should resume a west-northwestward motion later
today and maintain that motion for another day or so as Victor moves
along the southwestern periphery of a strong subtropical ridge
situated over the east-central Atlantic. The latest model runs
continue to show a broad mid- to upper-level low developing over the
central Atlantic to the west of Victor in the 24-72-h forecast
period, which will act to erode the western portion of the ridge and
create a deep-layer southerly flow pattern across the cyclone. As a
result, Victor is forecast to turn northwestward by the weekend and
then move northward by early next week. Owing to a more robust
mid-/upper-level low forecast to develop than previously expected,
the latest NHC track guidance has made a significant westward shift
by at least 100 nmi at 72 h and nearly 200 nmi on days 4 and 5. This
westward shift is due to Victor now forecast to weaken faster and
become more vertically shallow, with the dominant steering flow
shifting to low-level easterlies. The new NHC track forecast has
also been shifted westward, but not as far west as the tightly
packed consensus models, all of which lie well to the east of the
westernmost GFS solution.

Victor is expected to remain in a somewhat favorable environment for
the next 18 h or so, which should allow for at least some slight
strengthening to occur. Thereafter, however, southwesterly
deep-layer vertical wind shear is forecast by the GFS and ECMWF
models to increase to 20-25 kt in 24 hours and 30-35 kt by 72 h.
These hostile shear conditions, in conjunction with a drier air
mass, should result in gradual weakening during the 24-120-h period,
with Victor becoming a remnant low on day 5. The new official
intensity forecast is a little below the previous advisory, but it
is above the consensus intensity models ICON, HCCA, and FSSE, due to
the recent development of the aforementioned primitive eye feature.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/0900Z 11.7N 32.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 01/1800Z 12.4N 33.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 02/0600Z 13.4N 35.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 02/1800Z 14.9N 36.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 03/0600Z 16.7N 38.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 03/1800Z 19.0N 40.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 04/0600Z 21.0N 42.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 05/0600Z 24.0N 44.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
120H 06/0600Z 28.0N 45.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Stewart
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Re: ATL: VICTOR - Advisories

#9 Postby cycloneye » Fri Oct 01, 2021 10:06 am

Tropical Storm Victor Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202021
1100 AM AST Fri Oct 01 2021

Since the last advisory, Victor's deep convection has become limited
to the northern portion of its circulation. Convective outflow is
limited to the south, which indicates that the changes in the
structure of the tropical storm are due at least in part to
southerly wind shear. Microwave and ASCAT data between 0800 and 1200
UTC also indicate that the center of Victor has become elongated,
and may be trying to reform to the north, closer to the convection.
Even with that reformation, an 1128 ASCAT-B overpass revealed that
the center of Victor is located substantially south of previous
estimates, which has necessitated a significant change to the track
forecast.

With the new position, the initial motion estimate is now 295/13 kt.
The tropical storm is still generally expected to turn northwestward
over the weekend and then continue on that heading through early
next week, steered by the southwest periphery of a mid-level ridge
centered over the eastern Atlantic. Nearly all of the dynamical
models are showing this turn occuring slightly later than earlier
forecasts, which results in a track well to the west of the previous
NHC forecast. Combined with the updated analysis of Victor's
position, the new NHC forecast has been shifted over 100 n mi to the
southwest by day 4. However, this is still on the far east side of
the guidance envelope so additional changes to the track forecast
might be needed this afternoon.

The aforementioned ASCAT data showed peak winds near 50 kt, which
supports an intensity of 55 kt, assuming a little undersampling due
to the resolution of the instrument. The intensity analysis is also
supported by the latest TAFB Dvorak estimate. Despite the
large changes to the track forecast, no change of note was made to
the intensity forecast. Increasing shear and a dry surrounding
environment should cause Victor to weaken during the next few days.
Some models even indicate it could dissipate before the end of the
forecast period. The NHC forecast is based on the intensity model
consensus.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/1500Z 11.5N 33.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 02/0000Z 12.0N 34.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 02/1200Z 13.1N 36.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 03/0000Z 14.7N 38.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 03/1200Z 16.6N 40.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 04/0000Z 18.7N 42.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 04/1200Z 20.6N 43.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 05/1200Z 23.6N 46.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
120H 06/1200Z 27.1N 46.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky
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Re: ATL: VICTOR - Advisories

#10 Postby cycloneye » Fri Oct 01, 2021 3:44 pm

Tropical Storm Victor Discussion Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202021
500 PM AST Fri Oct 01 2021

Victor is looking disorganized. Deep convection has decreased in
organization and coverage this afternoon. No recent microwave
imagery has been available to assess the structure of the storm, but
visible images from MET-11 and GOES-17 suggest that the circulation
of the tropical storm is still elongated southwest-to-northeast. The
intensity estimate remains 55 kt for this advisory, but this is on
the high end of the recent estimates and could be generous.

Compared to the large changes made this morning, almost no change
was made to the official track forecast this afternoon. The model
consensus has shifted substantially back to the right, and now lies
very near the previous NHC forecast. Victor is forecast to turn
northwestward tomorrow, and then continue on that heading through
early next week, steered by ridging to the northeast. The new NHC
forecast is very near the model consensus through the end of the
forecast. Despite the recent agreement between the NHC forecast and
the consensus, confidence in the forecast will remain low until we
see better run-to-run consistency in the track model guidance.

Shear and dry air may already be taking a toll on Victor, and SHIPS
diagnostics from the GFS and ECMWF suggest that the environment
will get worse with time. All of the intensity models forecast that
Victor will weaken over the next several days in response to the
hostile environment, and this is reflected in the NHC forecast,
which is heavily based on the IVCN multi-model consensus. By day 5,
all of the dynamical models indicate that Victor will likely
degenerate into a trough of low pressure, so dissipation is shown.
Several models, including the HWRF, GFS, and ECMWF indicate
dissipation could occur sooner than that.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/2100Z 12.0N 34.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 02/0600Z 12.7N 35.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 02/1800Z 13.9N 37.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 03/0600Z 15.6N 39.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 03/1800Z 17.6N 40.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
60H 04/0600Z 19.7N 42.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 04/1800Z 21.5N 44.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 05/1800Z 24.5N 47.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 06/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky
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Re: ATL: VICTOR - Advisories

#11 Postby cycloneye » Fri Oct 01, 2021 9:55 pm

Tropical Storm Victor Discussion Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202021
1100 PM AST Fri Oct 01 2021

The structure of Victor this evening continues to degrade with the
low-level center becoming decoupled from the mid- to upper-level
circulation associated with the deeper convection. While the
tropical storm does continue to produce a region of deep convection
with cloud tops colder than -70 C, this activity is organized in a
linear band that is now more than 150 n mi northeast of the exposed
low-level center as seen on Proxy-Vis satellite imagery. Both
ASCAT-B/C clipped the western half of Victor's circulation, showing
peak winds of 40 kt on the far edge of the pass. In addition, the
latest subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates have
been falling this evening. The latest intensity for this advisory
has been lowered to 50 kt this advisory, assuming the scatterometer
data missed higher wind values to the northeast of Victor closer to
the convection. However, given Victor's current structure, this
estimate may still be generous.

Now that the low-level cloud swirl is readily apparent on satellite
imagery, it is somewhat easier to track Victor this evening, with
the estimated motion still west-northwest at 290/11 kt. Because the
cyclone is also becoming more vertically shallow, the primarily
steering feature will be a large low-level subtropical ridge
centered to the north, which should guide Victor on a general
west-northwestward to northwestward heading for the next 2-3 days at
a similar forward motion. The latest track guidance has shifted
westward this cycle, likely in response to Victor being a weaker
cyclone less coupled to the deep convection. The latest NHC track
forecast was also shifted a bit west over the forecast period,
staying closer to the consensus aids HCCA and TVCA, though it is
worth nothing this is still not as far west as the latest GFS or
ECMWF runs.

While the deep-layer 200-850 hPa vertical wind shear has not been
prohibitively strong today (15-20 kt), more substantial mid-level
shear underneath the outflow layer (25-30 kt) appears to be
responsible for the current disheveled appearance of Victor. This
shear is related to a large upper-level cutoff low upstream of the
tropical storm. Even though the current shear is not expected to
increase much more in the short-term, the mid-level environment over
Victor is expected to continue drying as the existing shear will
import very dry air upstream into the core of the cyclone. All of
the guidance responds to these unfavorable conditions by gradually
weakening Victor over the next few days, and the latest NHC
intensity forecast has been lowered a bit more compared to the
previous advisory. While pulses of deep convection are likely to
continue north of Victor over the next several days, the circulation
is expected to gradually lose definition, and the global and
high-res regional hurricane models now open up the system into a
trough between 72-96 hours. The latest NHC intensity forecast now
follows suit, showing dissipation by 96 hours.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/0300Z 12.3N 35.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 02/1200Z 13.2N 36.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 03/0000Z 14.6N 38.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 03/1200Z 16.5N 40.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 04/0000Z 18.5N 42.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
60H 04/1200Z 20.6N 44.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 05/0000Z 22.2N 46.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 06/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Papin
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Re: ATL: VICTOR - Advisories

#12 Postby cycloneye » Sat Oct 02, 2021 4:28 am

Tropical Storm Victor Discussion Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202021
500 AM AST Sat Oct 02 2021

Victor's satellite appearance has continued to degrade this morning
with the closest convection now located more than 150 nmi northeast
of the fully exposed low-level circulation center. Thus, Victor no
longer technically meets the convective criterion of a tropical
cyclone. However, tropical cyclone status is being maintained for
this advisory out of continuity with the previous advisory and just
in case a burst of deep convection redevelops later today near the
still-well-defined low-level circulation center. Victor's intensity
has been lowered to 45 kt based on a subjective Dvorak current
intensity estimate of CI3.0/45 kt from TAFB, and the typical decay
rate and spin down of a non-convective vortex over open water.

The motion estimate remains west-northwestward, or 300/11 kt. Victor
is forecast to move west-northwestward to northwestward around the
southwestern periphery of a deep-layer subtropical ridge for the
next 72-96 hours or until dissipation occurs. The new NHC forecast
track is similar to the previous advisory track, and lies close to
the tightly packed simple- and corrected-consensus track models.

Deep-layer south-southwesterly vertical wind shear of around 20 kt
and entrainment of dry mid-level air have taken their toll on
Victor. These unfavorable environmental parameters are expected to
worsen, resulting in continued weakening throughout the forecast
period. Therefore, Victor is forecast to become a tropical
depression by Sunday, degenerate into a remnant low by Monday, and
dissipate by Wednesday. However, the current weakening trend will
be hastened if organized convection does not return within the next
12 hours. The new official intensity forecast is a little lower
than the previous advisory, and is also lower than most of the
intensity guidance due to Victor's aforementioned severely degraded
convective pattern.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/0900Z 12.8N 36.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 02/1800Z 13.8N 37.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 03/0600Z 15.5N 39.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 03/1800Z 17.6N 41.8W 25 KT 30 MPH
48H 04/0600Z 19.8N 43.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 04/1800Z 21.7N 45.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 05/0600Z 23.1N 47.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 06/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Stewart
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Re: ATL: VICTOR - Advisories

#13 Postby cycloneye » Sat Oct 02, 2021 9:49 am

Tropical Storm Victor Discussion Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202021
1100 AM AST Sat Oct 02 2021

Strong southwesterly shear and entrainment of dry air have taken
their toll on Victor. The deep convection and the remnant mid-level
core has been stripped away from the cyclone's low-level
circulation, and is now more than 250 n mi northeast of Victor's
center. The most recent UW-CIMMS shear analysis indicates the shear
magnitude is about 30 kt over the center of the cyclone, and nearly
50 kt just to its north. The initial intensity is being lowered to
35 kt for this advisory based on the latest subjective Dvorak
intensity estimate from TAFB. However, this value could be generous.

Victor's vector is 305/10 kt. This motion is expected to continue
until the system dissipates, as the cyclone is steered in the flow
to the southwest of a subtropical ridge. The latest NHC track
forecast is just slightly to the left of the previous one, and lies
on the western side of the guidance envelope to accommodate the
shallow nature of the circulation.

The strong shear is not forecast to abate over the cyclone for the
foreseeable future and very dry, African dust-laden air lies in
the path of Victor. Therefore, it is unlikely that organized deep
convection will redevelop near the center of the cyclone. Because of
this, Victor is now expected to become a remnant low by tonight. The
remnant low is forecast by the global models to open into a trough
in 60 h. Due to the quick weakening that has been observed, the
latest NHC intensity forecast was lowered through the first 12 h,
and then remains the same as the previous forecast beyond that time
frame.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/1500Z 13.1N 37.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 03/0000Z 14.1N 38.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 03/1200Z 15.9N 40.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 04/0000Z 18.0N 42.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 04/1200Z 20.0N 44.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 05/0000Z 21.6N 46.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 05/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Latto
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Re: ATL: VICTOR - Advisories

#14 Postby cycloneye » Sat Oct 02, 2021 3:45 pm

Tropical Depression Victor Discussion Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202021
500 PM AST Sat Oct 02 2021

Victor was about out of time as a tropical cyclone, but a recent
burst of deep convection about 60 n mi northeast of its center saved
it from being declared a remnant low this afternoon. The cyclone
continues to struggle with dry air and strong southwesterly shear.
Scatterometer overpasses missed Victor today, so the initial
advisory intensity of 30 kt is based on the latest CI-value from the
TAFB Dvorak estimate.

The depression is moving northwest, or 310/12 kt in the flow to the
southwest of a subtropical ridge. This general motion is forecast to
continue until Victor dissipates in a few days. The latest NHC track
forecast is little changed from the previous one, and is near the
various multimodel track consensus solutions.

Victor refused to succumb to the strong shear and dry air over the
past 24 h. However, these hostile conditions are not forecast to
abate over the cyclone for the foreseeable future. Therefore, the
depression should struggle to maintain persistent deep convection,
and the cyclone could degenerate to a remnant low at any time over
the next couple of days. The global model guidance is in good
agreement that Victor should gradually weaken early this week, and
open into a tough of low pressure by Tuesday. The latest NHC
intensity forecast is unchanged from the previous one, except for
the timing of the system becoming a remnant low.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/2100Z 13.7N 38.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 03/0600Z 14.9N 39.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 03/1800Z 16.8N 41.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 04/0600Z 18.9N 43.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 04/1800Z 20.7N 45.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 05/0600Z 22.5N 47.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 05/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Latto
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Re: ATL: VICTOR - Advisories

#15 Postby cycloneye » Sat Oct 02, 2021 9:49 pm

Tropical Depression Victor Discussion Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202021
1100 PM AST Sat Oct 02 2021

Victor remains a tropical cyclone this evening, with pulsing deep
convection occuring primarily north of the well-defined low-level
center. However, this convection lacks much organization and is
continually being stripped away by around 20 kt of
south-southwesterly vertical wind shear. Earlier this evening, there
was an ASCAT-A pass valid at 2238 UTC which had peak wind retrievals
of 25-30 kt to the northeast of the center. There was also a nearby
moored ocean buoy that at 0000 UTC reported sustained winds of 28 kt
with a pressure of 1006.7 mb also just northeast of Victor. The
latest advisory intensity is thus being maintained at 30 kt but the
minimum pressure was lowered a bit due to this in-situ buoy data.
The 30 kt intensity also agrees with most recent TAFB Dvorak CI
estimate from 0000 UTC.

Ultimately the combination of southwesterly vertical wind shear and
the associated entrainment of dry air will prove victorious against
Victor, with the depression forecast to gradually weaken during the
forecast period. The latest NHC intensity forecast still shows
Victor becoming a remnant low by tomorrow evening, though 27 to
28 C sea surface temperatures could still support sheared
convective bursts to the north of the low center into early next
week. Victor's low-level wind field will also continue to spin down
over the subsequent days, and the circulation is forecast to open
up into a trough by Tuesday. The latest forecast is essentially
unchanged from the previous one and is in good agreement with the
consensus aids and deterministic model output.

The depression continues to move to the northwest at 310/12 kt
though with the occasional tug poleward by the convection on its
northern side. This northwestward motion is expected to continue as
Victor remains embedded in the flow around a low-level subtropical
anticyclone to its northeast. The NHC track forecast continues to be
in general agreement with the track guidance consensus, maintaining
Victor on a similar forward motion until the system opens up into a
trough in 2-3 days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/0300Z 14.8N 38.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 03/1200Z 16.3N 40.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 04/0000Z 18.4N 42.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 04/1200Z 20.3N 44.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 05/0000Z 21.8N 46.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 05/1200Z 23.2N 48.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 06/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Papin
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Re: ATL: VICTOR - Advisories

#16 Postby cycloneye » Sun Oct 03, 2021 5:05 am

Tropical Depression Victor Discussion Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202021
500 AM AST Sun Oct 03 2021

Victor remains a sheared tropical cyclone with intense deep
convection having developed closer to the center in the northeastern
quadrant since the previous advisory. Satellite intensity estimates
remain at T2.0/30 kt, so the advisory intensity remains at 30 kt. It
is possible that Victor could have regained tropical storm status
based on the robust convective shear pattern. For now, however,
Victor will remain a depression until new ASCAT surface wind data
arrive later this morning. Some fluctuations in intensity could
occur this morning due to the aforementioned better defined shear
pattern. By tonight, however, weakening is anticipated as Victor
encounters southwesterly vertical wind shear in excess of 25 kt and
moves into a drier air mass, which will act to decrease both the
depth and amount of inner-core deep convection. Victor is expected
to gradually spin down tonight and Monday, with the circulation
opening up into a trough on Tuesday.

Victor continues to move northwestward, or 315/14 kt. A motion
toward the northwest is forecast to continue as Victor remains
embedded within the southeasterly flow around a deep-layer
subtropical ridge. The new NHC track forecast is essentially just
an update of the previous advisory track, and lies near the tightly
clustered consensus track models.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/0900Z 16.1N 39.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 03/1800Z 17.6N 41.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 04/0600Z 19.6N 43.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 04/1800Z 21.3N 45.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 05/0600Z 22.8N 47.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 05/1800Z 24.3N 49.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 06/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Stewart
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Re: ATL: VICTOR - Advisories

#17 Postby cycloneye » Sun Oct 03, 2021 11:40 am

Tropical Depression Victor Discussion Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202021
1100 AM AST Sun Oct 03 2021

Despite persistent southwesterly vertical wind shear, Victor has
managed to maintain an area of deep convection to the northeast of
its low-level center through the morning hours. The latest objective
and subjective satellite estimates range from 30-35 kt. However, an
ASCAT-A pass from 1110 UTC indicates the increasingly elongated
center of Victor is about 45 n mi south of previous estimates, which
puts the center farther away from the edge of the convective
overcast. Although a few 35-kt ASCAT wind vectors are noted, these
retrievals are collocated with the most intense convection and
appear artificially high when compared to the surrounding 20 to
30-kt wind field. Thus, the initial intensity of Victor is held at
30 kt for this advisory.

The SHIPS guidance indicates 15-20 kt of vertical wind shear will
persist over Victor today, with even stronger shear expected on
Monday. Additionally, the dry mid-level environment that Victor is
embedded within appears unfavorable for sustaining deep convection.
Therefore, gradual weakening is expected early this week, and Victor
is forecast to lose its convection and degenerate into a remnant low
by late Monday. Another plausible scenario is that Victor's
low-level center continues to lose definition and the system opens
up into a trough with the next couple of days. Either way, Victor
does not appear to have much of a future. A subtropical ridge over
the eastern Atlantic is steering Victor northwestward, or 310/10 kt.
A northwestward motion is expected to continue through dissipation
as Victor moves around the southwestern periphery of the subtropical
ridge. Although the track reasoning has not changed, the official
NHC forecast track lies to the left of the previous advisory due to
the center relocation described above.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/1500Z 16.1N 40.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 04/0000Z 17.6N 41.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 04/1200Z 19.5N 43.9W 25 KT 30 MPH
36H 05/0000Z 21.1N 45.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 05/1200Z 22.4N 48.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 06/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Reinhart
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Re: ATL: VICTOR - Advisories

#18 Postby cycloneye » Sun Oct 03, 2021 3:47 pm

Tropical Depression Victor Discussion Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202021
500 PM AST Sun Oct 03 2021

The convective structure of Victor has deteriorated this afternoon.
Only small pulses of convection have been observed north of the
center over the past several hours. Victor's exposed low-level
circulation is also becoming more diffuse, with multiple cloud
swirls noted in visible satellite imagery. Hopefully, scatterometer
data this evening will provide more information about whether Victor
still possesses a closed and well-defined surface center. For now,
Victor is held as a 30-kt tropical depression, which is consistent
with earlier scatterometer winds and a blend of the data-T and
current intensity Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB.

Victor is unlikely to remain a tropical cyclone for much longer. The
dry mid-level environment and 20-25 kt of southwesterly vertical
wind shear are expected to limit Victor's ability to sustain deep,
organized convection going forward. Even if another diurnal
convective pulse occurs tonight, it should be quickly stripped away
from the center by the moderate to strong shear. The official NHC
forecast shows Victor becoming a remnant low on Monday, then opening
up into a trough and dissipating soon thereafter. Victor is moving
northwestward, or 315/11 kt. A northwestward or west-northwestward
motion is expected to continue through dissipation as the depression
is steered by a subtropical ridge to its northeast. The official NHC
track forecast is essentially an update of the previous one.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/2100Z 17.1N 41.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 04/0600Z 18.4N 42.9W 25 KT 30 MPH
24H 04/1800Z 19.7N 45.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 05/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Reinhart
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Re: ATL: VICTOR - Advisories

#19 Postby cycloneye » Sun Oct 03, 2021 9:40 pm

Tropical Depression Victor Discussion Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202021
1100 PM AST Sun Oct 03 2021

In its battle against dry air and shear, Victor is far from its
namesake. The depression continues to produce only minimal deep
convection to the north. Furthermore, an ASCAT overpass near 2219
UTC casts doubt on whether Victor still has a closed and
well-defined circulation, showing generally light winds south of
the suspect center. However, no visible imagery is currently
available to confirm the state of Victor's surface center, so
advisories will continue for now. ASCAT data showed winds a little
above 25 kt to the northeast of Victor's center, so the initial
intensity is held at 30 kt for this advisory.

Victor is moving northwestward at a slightly faster speed (305/13
kt). Based on the ASCAT data and recent ProxyVis imagery, the
center of Victor was relocated about 40 n mi south of previous
estimates, which has resulted in a southern shift in the forecast
track. That said, Victor is not expected to persist for much longer.
The hostile surrounding environment will likely cause Victor to
become a remnant low or dissipate on Monday. Victor, or its
remnants, should move generally northwestward or west-northwestward
until dissipation occurs within a day or so.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/0300Z 17.8N 43.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 04/1200Z 18.8N 44.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 05/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky
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Re: ATL: VICTOR - Advisories

#20 Postby cycloneye » Mon Oct 04, 2021 4:27 am

Tropical Depression Victor Discussion Number 20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202021
500 AM AST Mon Oct 04 2021

Strong southerly vertical wind shear in excess of 25 kt along with
entrainment of very dry mid-level air (less than 40 percent relative
humidity) has continued to take its toll on Victor. Deep convection
has been weakening during the past couple of hours and is now
displaced more than 100 nmi north and northeast of the elongated
low-level center. The shear is forecast by the global models to
increase to more than 30 kt in the next 6-12 hours, while the
surrounding environment becomes drier and more stable. As a result,
the cyclone is forecast to degenerate into a remnant low later today
and likely dissipate by Tuesday, if not sooner.

Victor is moving west-northwestward or 300/12 kt, and this general
motion is expected to continue through today based on the latest
NHC model guidance. As a result, no significant changes were made
to the previous track forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/0900Z 18.1N 43.6W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 04/1800Z 19.2N 45.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 05/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Stewart
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