EPAC: INVEST 99E - Discussion

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zzh
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EPAC: INVEST 99E - Discussion

#1 Postby zzh » Thu Sep 30, 2021 1:48 pm

EP, 99, 2021093018, , BEST, 0, 168N, 1067W, 25, 1008, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 150, 40, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 025, SPAWNINVEST, ep772021 to ep982021, SPAWNINVEST, ep772021 to ep992021,

https://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/btk
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Sciencerocks
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 99E - Discussion

#2 Postby Sciencerocks » Thu Sep 30, 2021 2:00 pm

A weak LLC trying to get going
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Yellow Evan
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 99E - Discussion

#3 Postby Yellow Evan » Thu Sep 30, 2021 5:44 pm

Has good poleward outflow that may give this a fighting chance for something quickfire.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 99E - Discussion

#4 Postby Yellow Evan » Fri Oct 01, 2021 2:32 am

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms continue in association with
an elongated area of low pressure located a couple of hundred miles
west-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico. This system is moving
west-northwestward at 5 to 10 mph, and some slow development is
possible through early Friday before it reaches an area of stronger
upper-level winds.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Stewart
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Yellow Evan
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 99E - Discussion

#5 Postby Yellow Evan » Fri Oct 01, 2021 2:24 pm

A trough of low pressure is producing a few disorganized showers and
thunderstorms a couple of hundred miles west of Manzanillo, Mexico.
Development of this system has become less likely due to unfavorable
environmental conditions. The system is forecast to move generally
west-northwestward at 5 to 10 mph during the next day or two.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 99E - Discussion

#6 Postby Teban54 » Fri Oct 01, 2021 2:31 pm

At least last year had a few invests actually become TS. :lol:
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