WPAC: LIONROCK - Post-Tropical

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Hayabusa
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WPAC: LIONROCK - Post-Tropical

#1 Postby Hayabusa » Fri Oct 01, 2021 6:58 pm

The first of the possible multiple storms forming this early October
92W.INVEST

92W.INVEST.15kts.1007mb.10N.135E

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Last edited by Hayabusa on Sun Oct 10, 2021 3:09 am, edited 4 times in total.
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 92W

#2 Postby Hayabusa » Fri Oct 01, 2021 7:12 pm

GFS makes this a strong typhoon (heavily doubt) over the south china sea.
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ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
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GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 92W

#3 Postby mrbagyo » Fri Oct 01, 2021 8:06 pm

Image
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 92W

#4 Postby Hayabusa » Fri Oct 01, 2021 8:23 pm

18Z ensembles
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 92W

#5 Postby mrbagyo » Sat Oct 02, 2021 12:46 am

92W INVEST 211002 0000 6.4N 133.8E WPAC 15 1006
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 92W

#6 Postby mrbagyo » Sat Oct 02, 2021 2:19 am

Hayabusa wrote:GFS makes this a strong typhoon (heavily doubt) over the south china sea.


Just a few systems managed to reach cat 4 strength in SCS during the month of October - all of them except Betty (1953) were bona fide typhoon before they entered the subject area.
Image
Last edited by mrbagyo on Sat Oct 02, 2021 3:36 am, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 92W

#7 Postby Hayabusa » Sat Oct 02, 2021 3:27 am

ABPW10 PGTW 020600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/020600Z-030600ZOCT2021//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/011951ZOCT2021//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
(2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 6.4N
133.8E, APPROXIMATELY 493 NM EAST OF DAVAO. ANIMATED VISIBLE IMAGERY
INDICATES A BROAD AND DISORGANIZED AREA OF ROTATION WITH FLARING
CONVECTION. A 020148Z ASCAT-C PASS SHOWED NO ROTATION AT THE
SURFACE. THERE IS CURRENTLY LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE POSITION, AS THE
ASSOCIATED ROTATION IS MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE MIDDLE-LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE. INVEST 92W IS NOT EXPECTED TO REACH TROPICAL DEPRESSION
STRENGTH WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER, DETERMINISTIC AND
ENSEMBLE MODELS AGREE 92W WILL INTESIFY BEFORE REACHING THE
PHILIPPINES WITHIN THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO LOW.

Latest ensembles
Image

Euro ensemble also showing strong solution for the potential 2nd system but operational still weak
Image
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 92W

#8 Postby Hayabusa » Sat Oct 02, 2021 4:56 am

mrbagyo wrote:
Hayabusa wrote:GFS makes this a strong typhoon (heavily doubt) over the south china sea.


Just a few systems managed to reach cat 4 strength in SCS during the month of October - all of them except Betty (1953) were bona fide typhoon before they entered the subject area.
https://i.imgur.com/vRWwf2U.png


Yep basically it's even more rare for a strong TC to actually peak over that area, overall only 16 TCs peaked (cat 4 or above and <=120E) since 1945
Image
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ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 92W

#9 Postby Hayabusa » Sat Oct 02, 2021 8:20 am

Up to medium
ABPW10 PGTW 021330
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/021330Z-030600ZOCT2021//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/011951ZOCT2021//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 6.4N 133.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 6.8N 131.8E, APPROXIMATELY 367
NM EAST OF DAVAO. ANIMATED VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATES A BROAD AND
CONSOLIDATING AREA OF ROTATION WITH FLARING, DISORGANIZED
CONVECTION. A 021048Z ASCAT-A PASS SHOWED A BROAD AND ELONGATED
CIRCULATION CENTER WITH A BAND OF 15-20 KNOT WINDS EXTENDING FROM
THE NORTH TO SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER, CYCLONIC TURNING INTO THE
CIRCULATION. THE ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT,
CHARACTERIZED BY LOW (5-10 KNOTS) VWS, WARM (30C) SSTS AND GOOD
EQUATORWARD OUTLFOW ALOFT. DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS AGREE
92W WILL CONSOLIDATE AND INTESIFY BEFORE REACHING THE PHILIPPINES
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
MEDIUM.
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ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 92W

#10 Postby Hayabusa » Sat Oct 02, 2021 7:51 pm

Image
WTPN21 PGTW 022230
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 92W)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
145 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 7.0N 130.9E TO 9.2N 125.6EWITHIN
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF
NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA
ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 022200Z
INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 7.1N 130.5E. THE
SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92W) PREVIOUSLY
LOCATED NEAR 6.4N 133.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 7.1N 130.5E,
APPROXIMATELY 719 NM SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) AND A 022012Z SSMIS 91 GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOW DEEP CONVECTION OFFSET TO THE WEST OF A LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT, WITH ROBUST EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, LOW (10-
15 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), AND WARM (30-31 C) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (SST). NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT
92W WILL TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND SLIGHTLY INTENSIFY TO A SMALL
TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
032230Z.
//
NNNN
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ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 92W

#11 Postby ElectricStorm » Sun Oct 03, 2021 12:30 am

0z GFS a little weaker. Now peaks this at 963mb, which is still strong, but it's not the super typhoon it was showing in previous runs. Either way this one will be one to watch for sure.
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 92W

#12 Postby mrbagyo » Sun Oct 03, 2021 11:27 am

HWRF is bullish

Image
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 92W

#13 Postby Hayabusa » Sun Oct 03, 2021 5:34 pm

Cancelled
WTPN21 PGTW 032230
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 92W) CANCELLATION//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/022221Z OCT 21//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. REMARKS: THIS CANCELS REF A (WTPN21 PGTW 022230). THE AREA OF
CONVECTION (INVEST 92W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 7.78N 128.6E IS NOW
LOCATED NEAR 9.4N 126.0E, APPROXIMATELY 136 NM SOUTHEAST OF MANILA,
PHILIPPINES. THE BROAD AREA OF TROUGHING ASSOCIATED WITH INVEST 92W
HAS TRACKED OVER THE PHILIPPINE ISLANDS, LOWERING THE PROBABILITY OF
IMMEDIATE FORMATION. HOWEVER, MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES PROBABLE
FORMATION ONCE INVEST 92W CROSSES THE PHILIPPINES AND ENTERS THE
SOUTH CHINA SEA
. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15
TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO MEDIUM.//
NNNN
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ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい!!!
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 92W

#14 Postby Hayabusa » Mon Oct 04, 2021 9:41 am

Back to TCFA again
WTPN21 PGTW 041430
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 92W)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
125 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 9.8N 121.5E TO 13.4N 116.9E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 17 TO 22 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 041200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 9.8N 121.5E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 7.78N 128.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.8N 121.5E, APPROXIMATELY 160
NM EAST OF PUERTO PRINCESA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY AND A
041021Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE PASS DEPICT FLARING CONVECTION AROUND
A BROAD LLC. 92W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD INTO AN
ENVIRONMENT OF ROBUST EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, LOW (5-10KTS) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (VWS), AND VERY WARM (30-31C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
(SST). GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS AGREE INVEST 92W
WILL STRENGTH TO WARNING CRITERIA AS IT TRACKS INTO THE SOUTH CHINA
SEA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 17 TO 22
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 17 TO 22 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
051430Z.
//
NNNN
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ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい!!!
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 92W

#15 Postby Hayabusa » Tue Oct 05, 2021 3:24 am

WWJP27 RJTD 050600
WARNING AND SUMMARY 050600.
WARNING VALID 060600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1004 HPA AT 13N 117E WNW 10 KT.
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ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい!!!
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 92W

#16 Postby Sciencerocks » Tue Oct 05, 2021 1:36 pm

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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 22W

#17 Postby Hayabusa » Thu Oct 07, 2021 3:54 am

Image

WDPN31 PGTW 070900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 22W (TWENTYTWO)
WARNING NR 001//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
INITIAL POSITION: 17.1N 111.0E
INITIAL INTENSITY: 30 KTS
GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 372 NM SOUTHEAST OF HANOI, VIETNAM
MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KTS
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 10 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) HAS SLOWLY CONSOLIDATED OVER THE PAST
TWELVE HOURS AND HAS TRANSITIONED FROM A MONSOON DEPRESSION INTO A
WARM-CORE TROPICAL SYSTEM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CLOUD LINES WRAPPING INTO A BROAD CENTER
WITH PERSISTENT CORE CONVECTION. A 070541Z AMSR2 89GHZ IMAGE
REVEALS FORMATIVE CURVED BANDING PRIMARILY OVER THE EASTERN
SEMICIRCLE WITH A RAGGED CENTER. A 070236Z ASCAT-B IMAGE INDICATES
THE WIND FIELD HAS STRENGTHENED AND CONTRACTED WITH 25-30 KNOT
WINDS WRAPPING IN CLOSER TO CENTER WITH A 70NM RADIUS OF MAXIMUM
WINDS, WHICH IS MORE TYPICAL OF A TROPICAL SYSTEM. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE ASCAT-B
IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE ASCAT DATA BUT IS HEDGED SLIGHTLY HIGHER
THAN THE AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN
FAVORABLE WITH MODERATE POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND LOW
(5-10KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 29-30C
ARE CONDUCIVE.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: NOT APPLICABLE (THERE ARE NO INITIAL WIND
RADII).

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: TD 22W IS LOCATED WITHIN A COMPETING
STEERING ENVIRONMENT WITH A NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE EAST AND A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE NORTH.

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
PGTW: T1.0 - 25 KTS
RJTD: T1.5 - 25 KTS
KNES: T1.5 - 25 KTS

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
VWS: 5-10 KTS
SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
OUTFLOW: MODERATE POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD
OTHER FACTORS: PROXIMITY TO LAND

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
INITIAL WIND RADII: NOT APPLICABLE

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THIS INITIAL PROGNOSTIC REASONING
MESSAGE ESTABLISHES THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TD 22W IS TRACKING SLOWLY WITHIN A COMPETING
STEERING ENVIRONMENT AND IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD
TO NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 36 THEN TURN WESTWARD THROUGH
TAU 72 AS THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL STR BECOMES THE PRIMARY STEERING
INFLUENCE. CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN FAVORABLE THROUGH TAU 24 WITH A
PEAK INTENSITY OF 40 KNOTS FORECAST AT TAU 24, POSSIBLY SLIGHTLY
HIGHER NEAR THE LANDFALL TIME. AFTER TAU 24, INTERACTION WITH LAND
IS EXPECTED TO HINDER DEVELOPMENT WITH GRADUAL WEAKENING ANTICIPATED
AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS ACROSS HAINAN ISLAND. AS THE SYSTEM EMERGES
OVER THE GULF OF TONKIN AFTER TAU 48, REINTENSIFICATION IS UNLIKELY
DUE TO LAND INTERACTION AND INCREASING NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR. AFTER TAU 72, TD 22W WILL TURN SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER A
NORTHEAST-SOUTHWEST ORIENTED STR. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
DISSIPATE BY TAU 96 AS IT TRACKS INLAND OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH TAU 72 WITH A 70NM SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS AT TAU 72 BUT
DIVERGE AFTER TAU 72 WITH A LARGE SPREAD AND INCREASED UNCERTAINTY
LENDING LOW CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK IS POSITIONED NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS (CONW).
INTENSITY GUIDANCE INDICATES A PEAK RANGING FROM 35 TO 45 KNOTS AT
TAU 24 WITH STEADY WEAKENING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
TRACK 72-120 HR: LOW
INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM//
NNNN
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ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい!!!
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically

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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 22W

#18 Postby Sciencerocks » Thu Oct 07, 2021 1:34 pm

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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 22W

#19 Postby zzh » Thu Oct 07, 2021 3:44 pm

WTPQ20 RJTD 071800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2117 LIONROCK (2117) UPGRADED FROM TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 071800UTC 16.9N 111.4E FAIR
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 400NM EAST 240NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 081800UTC 19.0N 110.4E 80NM 70%
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
48HF 091800UTC 20.2N 108.7E 130NM 70%
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
72HF 101800UTC 18.6N 103.9E 200NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =
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Yellow Evan
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Re: WPAC: LIONROCK - Tropical Storm

#20 Postby Yellow Evan » Thu Oct 07, 2021 7:32 pm

TXPQ26 KNES 080001
TCSWNP

A. 22W (LIONROCK)

B. 07/2330Z

C. 18.5N

D. 110.5E

E. THREE/HIMAWARI-8

F. T2.5/2.5

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...THIS INTENSITY ESTIMATE WAS DERIVED USING 4 KM IR
DATA.4.5/10 BANDING AROUND THE LLCC YIELDS A DT OF 2.5. MET AND PT ARE
BOTH EQUAL TO 2.0 BASED ON A DEVELOPMENT TREND IN THE LAST 24 HOURS. FT
IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...TUGGLE
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