EPAC: PAMELA - Remnants

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EPAC: PAMELA - Remnants

#1 Postby Subtrop » Fri Oct 08, 2021 8:36 am

EP, 91, 2021100812, , BEST, 0, 97N, 891W, 20, 1008, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1009, 150, 100, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 027, SPAWNINVEST, ep792021 to ep912021,


https://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/btk/
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 91E

#2 Postby Teban54 » Fri Oct 08, 2021 9:05 am

Anyone wanna bet if this is going down in the record books or not?
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 91E

#3 Postby Ntxw » Fri Oct 08, 2021 9:09 am

Short life, but high potential if it can develop quickly and RI. If it can keep a tight core it will have an interaction with a higher latitude trough.

Wouldn't recon be fun?
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 91E

#4 Postby aspen » Fri Oct 08, 2021 9:22 am

Reposting this from the EPac thread. Pamela will have some very, very high potential in the few days it'll have over water. The black line is the 06z GFS track from 72-144hr, and the white boundaries are approximate track errors based on prior runs.
Image
Pamela's potentially significant threat to land should mean the NHC will schedule recon for it. Hopefully plenty will be available if it does bomb out. There won't be any Atlantic systems to divide the NHC's attention.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 91E

#5 Postby ElectricStorm » Fri Oct 08, 2021 9:30 am

Could be a big one. This will be interesting to watch, hopefully it won't get too strong before crashing into Mexico.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 91E

#6 Postby Netzero9455 » Fri Oct 08, 2021 9:36 am

Well, this is worrisome. That track looks like a repeat of Kenna 2002, which was the most significant hurricane to affect Puerto Vallarta in the last 40 years I believe, even though it made landfall 60 miles to the north. We just had Nora go through our area earlier this season, which caused widespread river flooding.

I know it's way too early to pinpoint a landfall location, but Nayarit seems to be in the crosshairs of the last few model runs, which puts us on the dirty side.

Comparatively, Patricia which made landfall about 75 miles to the south, gave us little more than a drizzling rain for about 12 hours and no wind whatsoever.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 91E

#7 Postby aspen » Fri Oct 08, 2021 11:18 am

12z GFS has a 939mb landfall on Wednesday night/early Thursday morning.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 91E

#8 Postby cycloneye » Fri Oct 08, 2021 11:31 am

It is looking more and more that the beautiful city of tourism Puerto Vallarta may be in the bulls eye but is still early.
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EPAC: INVEST 91E

#9 Postby skyline385 » Fri Oct 08, 2021 11:39 am

https://twitter.com/andyhazelton/status ... 0426927113

"Obviously will depend on storm structure, but large-scale pieces look favorable for #91E becoming a significant hurricane off of Mexico. Large upper anticyclone with the jet streak with the trough to the NE aiding outflow, moisture from the ITCZ, and warmer than usual SSTs."
Last edited by skyline385 on Fri Oct 08, 2021 11:39 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 91E

#10 Postby Yellow Evan » Fri Oct 08, 2021 11:40 am

Image

Image

This has one of the best modeled environments I've seen in this basin in a non-El Nino year (then again so did Genevieve last year). 12z GFS in particular shows a really favorable jet interaction.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 91E

#11 Postby Yellow Evan » Fri Oct 08, 2021 11:43 am

Image

12z GFS's solution brings this onshore just north of San Blas, which is where Hurricane Kenna 19 years ago struck.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 91E

#12 Postby Yellow Evan » Fri Oct 08, 2021 12:02 pm

* GFS version *
* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP912021 10/08/21 12 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 25 27 30 38 46 58 68 78 83 89 90 84 63 56 50
V (KT) LAND 20 22 25 27 30 38 46 58 68 78 83 89 90 84 46 33 29
V (KT) LGEM 20 20 21 22 23 25 27 31 35 40 47 57 64 61 38 30 28
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 6 7 10 8 9 7 6 11 8 6 5 9 19 28 32 38 38
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 2 0 1 2 1 4 4 4 0 -1 0 0 0 1 -3 0
SHEAR DIR 54 39 33 36 31 19 320 303 310 305 257 245 206 195 222 253 258
SST (C) 28.1 28.0 28.3 28.8 29.6 29.5 29.5 29.8 30.4 31.0 30.7 30.7 31.1 31.3 28.5 28.5 28.6
POT. INT. (KT) 146 145 148 153 162 160 161 164 170 172 171 170 170 171 150 149 149
200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.4 -52.2 -52.8 -53.0 -52.5 -53.2 -52.6 -52.6 -52.0 -52.6 -52.1 -51.5 -50.9 -50.7 -51.0 -51.3
200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.5 1.0 0.0 0.0
TH_E DEV (C) 4 5 5 4 3 5 5 9 8 11 8 9 5 8 4 8 5
700-500 MB RH 70 69 73 73 71 71 70 65 66 65 65 64 56 49 44 45 47
MODEL VTX (KT) 8 9 9 10 11 13 13 15 17 20 21 24 26 23 7 LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 64 48 37 33 23 14 -3 2 23 22 16 28 62 66 83 53 46
200 MB DIV 54 34 56 86 99 120 133 82 71 89 51 82 46 77 38 45 50
700-850 TADV 1 2 0 0 2 0 0 -4 -5 -7 -2 0 -3 -8 -12 2 0
LAND (KM) 355 391 425 424 430 434 354 303 255 198 161 127 122 23 -186 -423 -377
LAT (DEG N) 9.7 9.9 10.1 10.5 10.9 11.8 12.8 14.0 15.5 16.9 18.4 19.9 21.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x
LONG(DEG W) 89.1 90.4 91.6 92.8 93.9 96.1 98.2 100.3 102.5 104.5 106.1 106.8 106.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x
STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 12 12 12 11 12 13 12 11 10 7 7 8 11 9 7
HEAT CONTENT 6 4 5 8 14 17 26 23 27 31 38 40 44 42 14 13 8

FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 0
T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 533 (MEAN=587)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.3 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 71.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 13.7

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4.
SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. 0. 5. 12. 20. 28. 33. 37. 41. 45. 49. 52. 55. 58.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 5. 5. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 2. -2. -8. -14.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1.
PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 0.
THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 9. 13. 17. 18. 20. 21. 16. -1. -3. -2.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 1. -0. -1.
850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3.
GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2.
RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 7. 10. 18. 26. 38. 48. 58. 63. 69. 70. 64. 43. 36. 30.

CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 9.7 89.1

** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP912021 INVEST 10/08/21 12 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)

Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 131.0 40.5 to 149.3 0.83 999.0
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0
D200 (10**7s-1) : 65.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.51 999.0
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.1 19.6 to 1.3 0.63 999.0
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.63 999.0
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 44.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.86 999.0
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 7.4 2.7 to 106.7 0.05 999.0
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.45 999.0

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%)

Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic: 2.0% 27.3% 10.3% 6.3% 0.8% 20.5% 49.0% 57.9%
Bayesian: 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.4%
Consensus: 0.7% 9.2% 3.5% 2.1% 0.3% 6.9% 16.3% 19.4%
DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0%

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912021 INVEST 10/08/21 12 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 91E

#13 Postby Yellow Evan » Fri Oct 08, 2021 12:09 pm

Image

Image

12z ICON and CMC have like the GFS shifted north landfall location wise, now bringing this onshore southern Sinaloa.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 91E

#14 Postby cycloneye » Fri Oct 08, 2021 12:26 pm

No recon yet planned as of todays TCPOD but that could change this weekend.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 91E

#15 Postby cycloneye » Fri Oct 08, 2021 12:37 pm

TD or TS expected to form.

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Fri Oct 8 2021

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A tropical wave is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms
a few hundred miles south of the coasts of Guatemala and southern
Mexico. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for
development, and a tropical depression or tropical storm is
expected to form by late this weekend or early next week while the
system moves westward to west-northwestward at about 15 mph south of
the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

$$
Forecaster Berg
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 91E

#16 Postby zeehag » Fri Oct 08, 2021 12:55 pm

and so we have another letter P for october mayhem. and it seems to be acomin my way yet again. .i can wish it on my friends in barra or i can wish it on my friends in san blas or i can wish it on banderas bay, but this issue will leave a dent. hoping not for a patricia repeat. i havebeen hoping the models i have seen which are way to early and premature are more accurate than not..
seems to be near anniversary of patricias nastiness in barra.. that was an experience.. beautiful storm but wow.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 91E

#17 Postby skyline385 » Fri Oct 08, 2021 1:02 pm

zeehag wrote:and so we have another letter P for october mayhem. and it seems to be acomin my way yet again. .i can wish it on my friends in barra or i can wish it on my friends in san blas or i can wish it on banderas bay, but this issue will leave a dent. hoping not for a patricia repeat. i havebeen hoping the models i have seen which are way to early and premature are more accurate than not..
seems to be near anniversary of patricias nastiness in barra.. that was an experience.. beautiful storm but wow.

From what i have read, Patricia wasnt that bad at all because of the evacuations and the super rapid weakening because of it's tiny core.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 91E

#18 Postby Sciencerocks » Fri Oct 08, 2021 1:14 pm

Image
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 91E

#19 Postby Yellow Evan » Fri Oct 08, 2021 1:38 pm

skyline385 wrote:
zeehag wrote:and so we have another letter P for october mayhem. and it seems to be acomin my way yet again. .i can wish it on my friends in barra or i can wish it on my friends in san blas or i can wish it on banderas bay, but this issue will leave a dent. hoping not for a patricia repeat. i havebeen hoping the models i have seen which are way to early and premature are more accurate than not..
seems to be near anniversary of patricias nastiness in barra.. that was an experience.. beautiful storm but wow.

From what i have read, Patricia wasnt that bad at all because of the evacuations and the super rapid weakening because of it's tiny core.


Patricia was no joke at landfall - at 130 knots still the strongest landfall on record on Western Mexico, but it’s saving grace was, much like Monica, that it hit a sparsely populated area.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 91E

#20 Postby Yellow Evan » Fri Oct 08, 2021 3:30 pm

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