EPAC: PAMELA - Remnants

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aspen
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Re: EPAC: PAMELA - Tropical Storm

#241 Postby aspen » Tue Oct 12, 2021 8:10 pm

Convection looks to be warming again. I’ll be very surprised if this is 55kt or higher tomorrow morning. Clearly the shear isn’t letting up and will not allow Pamela to intensify any more.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 91E

#242 Postby Ubuntwo » Tue Oct 12, 2021 8:14 pm

Yellow Evan wrote:The shear is coming from mid-levels though. A proper ULAC did become established so ECMWF wasn’t exactly right.

"Used the wrong formula and got the correct answer." :lol:
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Re: EPAC: PAMELA - Tropical Storm

#243 Postby Ubuntwo » Tue Oct 12, 2021 8:15 pm

aspen wrote:Convection looks to be warming again. I’ll be very surprised if this is 55kt or higher tomorrow morning. Clearly the shear isn’t letting up and will not allow Pamela to intensify any more.

Here is Stewart's take.
It might not seem like it based on the downward satellite trends
today, but the negative effects from modest vertical shear and dry
air that have been affecting the cyclone will gradually subside once
Pamela makes the expected northeastward turn later this evening.
During that same time, the deep-layer shear vector is forecast to
slowly back around to a southwesterly direction and become aligned
with the hurricane's forward motion, which will help to reduce some
of the effects of the shear. Surrounding dry mid-level air could
still be a hindering factor, but this negative parameter is expected
to be offset by Pamela moving over very warm sea-surface
temperatures of almost 31 deg C overnight. The higher ocean heat
content should increase the available instability during the normal
convective maximum period tonight, enabling the cyclone to
restrengthen to hurricane status, and continue to strengthen right
up until landfall occurs.
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Re: EPAC: PAMELA - Tropical Storm

#244 Postby Teban54 » Tue Oct 12, 2021 9:00 pm

Is it just me, or is that latest convective burst even further away from the LLC? :lol:
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Re: EPAC: PAMELA - Tropical Storm

#245 Postby aspen » Tue Oct 12, 2021 9:03 pm

Ubuntwo wrote:
aspen wrote:Convection looks to be warming again. I’ll be very surprised if this is 55kt or higher tomorrow morning. Clearly the shear isn’t letting up and will not allow Pamela to intensify any more.

Here is Stewart's take.
It might not seem like it based on the downward satellite trends
today, but the negative effects from modest vertical shear and dry
air that have been affecting the cyclone will gradually subside once
Pamela makes the expected northeastward turn later this evening.
During that same time, the deep-layer shear vector is forecast to
slowly back around to a southwesterly direction and become aligned
with the hurricane's forward motion, which will help to reduce some
of the effects of the shear. Surrounding dry mid-level air could
still be a hindering factor, but this negative parameter is expected
to be offset by Pamela moving over very warm sea-surface
temperatures of almost 31 deg C overnight. The higher ocean heat
content should increase the available instability during the normal
convective maximum period tonight, enabling the cyclone to
restrengthen to hurricane status, and continue to strengthen right
up until landfall occurs.

He has been way too generous with Pamela and expecting it to quickly recover, but Pamela only seems to get worse. Convection is now very ragged and wispy with bursts located far from the LLC. Pamela can’t strengthen if any semblance of inner core structure is non-existent.
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Re: EPAC: PAMELA - Tropical Storm

#246 Postby grapealcoholic » Tue Oct 12, 2021 9:19 pm

This new CB looks more focused than earlier
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Re: EPAC: PAMELA - Tropical Storm

#247 Postby Sciencerocks » Tue Oct 12, 2021 9:23 pm

Image
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Re: EPAC: PAMELA - Tropical Storm

#248 Postby grapealcoholic » Tue Oct 12, 2021 9:31 pm

That's some ridiculously deep convection
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Re: EPAC: PAMELA - Tropical Storm

#249 Postby cycloneye » Tue Oct 12, 2021 9:40 pm

Tropical Storm Pamela Discussion Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162021
900 PM MDT Tue Oct 12 2021

Westerly shear has continued to prevent Pamela from restrengthening
this evening. Although there was a significant burst of deep
convection since the previous advisory, the center remains on the
northwestern edge of the convective cloud mass and more recently the
cloud tops associated with that burst has begun to warm. A blend of
subjective Dvorak T- and CI-numbers from SAB and TAFB, and the
latest UW-CIMSS SATCON estimate stills support an initial intensity
of 60 kt. Another Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is
scheduled to investigate Pamela overnight, which should provide a
better assessment of the cyclone's intensity.

Recent center fixes show that Pamela has made its much anticipated
north-northeastward turn, and it is now moving 020/10 kt. The
tropical storm should accelerate northeastward during the next 12 to
24 hours as it gets caught in deep-layer southwesterly flow between
a mid-level ridge over the western Gulf of Mexico, and an
approaching mid-latitude trough to the northwest. This motion
should bring the center of Pamela to the coast of west-central
mainland Mexico around 1200 UTC Wednesday morning. After that time,
Pamela or its remnants should continue moving quickly northeastward
across central and northern Mexico through Wednesday night.
Although a 36-h post-tropical cyclone point is shown over southern
Texas, the low-level center is likely to dissipate over the
mountainous terrain of Mexico late Wednesday or Wednesday night.

Pamela will be moving over very warm SSTs of around 31C overnight,
and that combined with a slightly more conducive upper-level wind
pattern should allow Pamela to restrengthen into a hurricane before
it reaches the coast of Mexico Wednesday morning. After landfall,
rapid weakening will occur as Pamela moves over the rugged terrain
of west-central Mexico. The latest NHC intensity forecast is again
near the higher side of the guidance envelope, but it shows a
slightly lower peak intensity before landfall than the previous
official forecast.

Although Pamela is likely to dissipate over the rugged terrain of
Mexico, deep moisture associated with the system's remnants are
likely to spread over north-central and northeastern Mexico on
Wednesday, and then move into portions of the south-central United
States late Wednesday or Thursday.

Key Messages:

1. Pamela is forecast to restrengthen into a hurricane before it
reaches the west-central coast of Mexico on Wednesday morning, and
life-threatening storm surge and dangerous hurricane-force winds
are expected within the Hurricane Warning area. Residents in this
area should follow any advice given by local officials.

2. Heavy rains associated with Pamela are expected to move into the
Mexican States of Sinaloa and western Durango along with southern
portions of Baja California Sur tonight and Wednesday. This will
pose a threat of significant and life-threatening flash flooding and
mudslides.

3. Heavy rains associated with the remnants of Pamela are expected
across portions of central Texas and southeastern Oklahoma late
Wednesday and Thursday. This may result in considerable flash and
urban flooding impacts.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/0300Z 21.9N 108.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 13/1200Z 23.8N 106.9W 70 KT 80 MPH...NEAR THE COAST
24H 14/0000Z 26.6N 103.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
36H 14/1200Z 29.7N 99.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
48H 15/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown
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Re: EPAC: PAMELA - Tropical Storm

#250 Postby grapealcoholic » Tue Oct 12, 2021 10:42 pm

Absolutely ripping now. Curious to see what recon finds in a few hours
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Re: EPAC: PAMELA - Tropical Storm

#251 Postby grapealcoholic » Wed Oct 13, 2021 1:42 am

grapealcoholic wrote:
aspen wrote:I’m sorry Stewart, but this isn’t gonna intensify much anymore. There’s literally no core with less than 24 hours before landfall. Dmax with the 31C SSTs could help Pamela out, but I doubt it’ll do much.

Eh, I disagree. 31C in October is basically in the upper 99th percentile of thermodynamic favorability (aside from like WPAC in November). Shear will fight it but thermodynamics should win out here -- just unsure how quickly it could deepen.

As I was saying.. 31C waters in October don't care about some mid-level shear. Especially with a large CW storm-relative hodograph
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Re: EPAC: PAMELA - Tropical Storm

#252 Postby Yellow Evan » Wed Oct 13, 2021 1:44 am

This structurally is still badly sheared. Cloud tops are colder but there’s no definitive shape.
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Re: EPAC: PAMELA - Tropical Storm

#253 Postby grapealcoholic » Wed Oct 13, 2021 1:47 am

The outflow is silky smooth now. It's definitely strengthening, and probably quickly
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Re: EPAC: PAMELA - Tropical Storm

#254 Postby zeehag » Wed Oct 13, 2021 3:08 am

i was sleeping nicely when my maine coon mix cat chomped me awake.. he thought something needed addressed.. loud sounds.. wind. ok.. and pouring rain.. flashes of lightning brightening the sky at intervals from a distance. seems bubba knew we had to see the problem chico is screaming because he hates our house and he hates wind.. yeah no more sleep for the wicked.. tomorrow we see how marina and boats fared. so far our biggest issue is cat fear. we still have water and electricity, so life is good.
so now we have thunder close by. nice storm so far. and only one roof leak. not bad.
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Re: EPAC: PAMELA - Tropical Storm

#255 Postby Yellow Evan » Wed Oct 13, 2021 3:34 am

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Re: EPAC: PAMELA - Tropical Storm

#256 Postby grapealcoholic » Wed Oct 13, 2021 3:45 am

What happened to recon?
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Re: EPAC: PAMELA - Tropical Storm

#257 Postby Yellow Evan » Wed Oct 13, 2021 3:57 am

000
WTPZ41 KNHC 130848
TCDEP1

Hurricane Pamela Discussion Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162021
300 AM MDT Wed Oct 13 2021

Although Dvorak satellite intensity estimates have not changed,
recent imagery indicates that the center is more involved
with the deep convection than it was earlier, suggesting that at
least some strengthening has taken place. Moreover, an excellent
ASCAT-B scatterometer pass from around 0500 UTC showed a couple of
53 to 54 kt wind vectors, which is likely an undersampling of the
peak intensity. On this basis, the estimated intensity of Pamela
is increased slightly to 65 kt, so the system is once again a
hurricane. Since the tropical cyclone is close to landfall and the
upper-level winds are not conducive for much more strengthening,
little change in intensity is likely until the center crosses the
coast. Rapid weakening will occur after the center moves inland,
and the official forecast may be a little on the high side given
the mountainous terrain that the system will traverse.

Center fixes from geostationary imagery and the scatterometer
indicate that Pamela is now moving faster toward the northeast, or
at about 045/12 kt. Additional acceleration is expected during the
next 12 to 24 hours while the cyclone is embedded in the deep-layer
southwesterly flow between a ridge over the western Gulf of Mexico
and a broad trough over the west-central United States. The
official forecast track has been shifted a little to the southeast
of the previous one, but still moves Pamela across the coast of
Mexico withing the Hurricane Warning area this morning. Later
today and tonight, the rapidly weakening cyclone should move
over central and northern Mexico. By 36 hours, the global models
show the system losing its identity. The official forecast track
is close to the simple and corrected consensus model solutions.

Although Pamela is likely to dissipate over the rugged terrain of
Mexico, deep moisture associated with the system's remnants
are likely to spread over north-central and northeastern Mexico on
Wednesday, and then move into portions of the south-central United
States later today or Thursday.


Key Messages:

1. Pamela is forecast to make landfall on the west-central coast of
Mexico this morning, and life-threatening storm surge and dangerous
hurricane-force winds are expected within the Hurricane Warning
area. Residents in this area should follow any advice given by
local officials.

2. Heavy rains associated with Pamela are expected to continue to
move into the Mexican States of Sinaloa and western Durango today.
This will pose a threat of significant and life-threatening flash
flooding and mudslides.

3. Heavy rains associated with the remnants of Pamela are expected
across portions of central Texas and southeastern Oklahoma later
today or Thursday. This may result in considerable flash and urban
flooding impacts.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/0900Z 22.8N 107.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 13/1800Z 24.5N 105.4W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
24H 14/0600Z 27.4N 101.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
36H 14/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch
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Re: EPAC: PAMELA - Hurricane

#258 Postby aspen » Wed Oct 13, 2021 6:02 am

The magnitude in which Pamela under-performed is incredible. With a peak of just 70kt/985mb (and even that might be a little high), Pamela fell 35kt under the highest peak given to it by the NHC (105kt), 45-50kt under the maximum winds modeled or suggested by the HWRF and GFS (120-125kt), and was 30-50mb weaker than both models’ forecast pressure. Remember, the GFS was consistently showing 940s and 930s for days.

No other storm this year gets anywhere close to Pamela’s under-performance. Larry fell 15kt below the highest forecast peak the NHC gave it, but the HWRF was spot-on with pressure and winds. Victor fell 15-30kt below the NHC peak and HWRF estimates, but it was only a single category difference instead of two or three. Guillermo and Kevin also busted badly in the same region, but I don’t think the NHC was as aggressive with them as they were with Pamela.
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Re: EPAC: PAMELA - Hurricane

#259 Postby Teban54 » Wed Oct 13, 2021 6:49 am

What happened to the overnight recon? Was it canceled?
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Re: EPAC: PAMELA - Hurricane

#260 Postby tolakram » Wed Oct 13, 2021 6:57 am

aspen wrote:The magnitude in which Pamela under-performed is incredible. With a peak of just 70kt/985mb (and even that might be a little high), Pamela fell 35kt under the highest peak given to it by the NHC (105kt), 45-50kt under the maximum winds modeled or suggested by the HWRF and GFS (120-125kt), and was 30-50mb weaker than both models’ forecast pressure. Remember, the GFS was consistently showing 940s and 930s for days.

No other storm this year gets anywhere close to Pamela’s under-performance. Larry fell 15kt below the highest forecast peak the NHC gave it, but the HWRF was spot-on with pressure and winds. Victor fell 15-30kt below the NHC peak and HWRF estimates, but it was only a single category difference instead of two or three. Guillermo and Kevin also busted badly in the same region, but I don’t think the NHC was as aggressive with them as they were with Pamela.


The GFS is pretty bad for intensity, you know this, right? The GFS has been spinning up phantom EPAC storm all year, right? EPAC storms are always harder to forecast, perhaps due to lack of good data, so I'm not shocked at all. EPAC can be pretty exciting because intensity predictions are so historically poor.
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