ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
User avatar
msbee
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 3010
Joined: Wed Jun 11, 2003 10:11 am
Location: St. Maarten

Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion

#21 Postby msbee » Sun Oct 10, 2021 7:45 pm

I’m in the cone again !
2 likes   
Too many hurricanes to remember

User avatar
aspen
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 8029
Joined: Sat Oct 12, 2019 7:10 pm
Location: Connecticut, USA

Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion

#22 Postby aspen » Sun Oct 10, 2021 8:03 pm

If 93L does develop, it’ll probably be around the very NE Caribbean islands or just to the NE of them, like what last week’s GFS runs originally showed for this system. It could take a track very similar to Sebastian ‘19.
0 likes   
Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 5/15/2018 Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20 Elsa '21 Henri '21 Ida '21

I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.

zzh
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 375
Joined: Fri Aug 27, 2021 2:18 pm

Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion

#23 Postby zzh » Sun Oct 10, 2021 8:38 pm

Image
1 likes   

Sciencerocks
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 7266
Age: 38
Joined: Thu Jul 06, 2017 1:51 am

Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion

#24 Postby Sciencerocks » Sun Oct 10, 2021 8:40 pm

Image
0 likes   

User avatar
Ptarmigan
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5270
Joined: Wed Aug 16, 2006 9:06 pm

Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion

#25 Postby Ptarmigan » Sun Oct 10, 2021 9:50 pm

abajan wrote:
Stormybajan wrote:20-30% :raincloud: Can 93L surprise us?

I wonder if 1780 was a La Niña year too.


There were droughts in the 1780s in the Caribbean. It looks like La Nina with negative Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO).

Multiyear La Niña events and persistent drought in the contiguous United States
https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com ... 01GL013561

Multi-decadal climate variability: Flood and Drought - New South Wales
http://www.lavoisier.com.au/articles/gr ... ks2007.pdf

El Niño in Australia
http://www-das.uwyo.edu/~geerts/cwx/not ... _enso.html

The 1780s: Global Climate Anomalies, Floods, Droughts, and Famines
http://sro.sussex.ac.uk/id/eprint/83046 ... vised1.pdf

Interannual to Decadal Drought and Wildfire in the Western United States
https://www.firescience.gov/projects/01 ... ble_02.pdf
2 likes   

Weatherwatcher2018
Tropical Depression
Tropical Depression
Posts: 65
Joined: Wed Sep 26, 2018 4:30 pm

Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion

#26 Postby Weatherwatcher2018 » Mon Oct 11, 2021 5:50 am

What’s the synopsis this morning
0 likes   

ChrisH-UK
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 416
Joined: Sat May 29, 2021 8:22 am

Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion

#27 Postby ChrisH-UK » Mon Oct 11, 2021 7:05 am

93L looks to be building nicely this morning theres 2 convection towers, however there is some shear.

GOES16 CIRA Proxy Visible product Source- https://col.st/gvntm

2 likes   

User avatar
Stormybajan
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 428
Joined: Thu May 20, 2021 3:21 pm
Location: Windward Islands

Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion

#28 Postby Stormybajan » Mon Oct 11, 2021 7:09 am

Weatherwatcher2018 wrote:What’s the synopsis this morning

Well, development chances in the 5 day period has been reduced from 30 to 20 %, so maybe quick TD development has been thrown through the window now? However nhc still do say the lesser antilles could receive heavy rain and gusty winds from 93L so I guess not much has changed in that aspect. Should see some rain tonight and tomorrow
2 likes   
Sad West Indies and Manchester United fan ⚽️

User avatar
abajan
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 4175
Joined: Sun Sep 07, 2003 5:10 am
Location: Barbados

Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion

#29 Postby abajan » Mon Oct 11, 2021 8:07 am

Weatherwatcher2018 wrote:What’s the synopsis this morning

Relevant paragraph from the 8 AM Tropical Weather Outlook:
A tropical wave located about 350 miles east-southeast of the
Windward Islands is producing an area of showers and a few
thunderstorms. Some slow development is possible during the next day
or two while the system moves west-northwestward at about 15 mph
toward the Lesser Antilles. Strong upper-level winds are expected to
limit further development on Tuesday. Regardless of development,
the system could produce locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds
across portions of the central and northern Lesser Antilles on
Tuesday, and across the Virgin Islands and Leeward Islands on
Wednesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
2 likes   

User avatar
InfernoFlameCat
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1966
Age: 20
Joined: Mon Dec 14, 2020 10:52 am
Location: Buford, GA

Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion

#30 Postby InfernoFlameCat » Mon Oct 11, 2021 5:03 pm

An llc is now visible, At least a developing one is. Also a big blowup of more organized convection to the west of the partial llc has likely aided the llc in developing.
1 likes   
I am by no means a professional. DO NOT look at my forecasts for official information or make decisions based on what I post.

Goal: to become a registered expert over tropical and subtropical cyclones.

User avatar
Teban54
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1903
Joined: Sat May 19, 2018 1:19 pm

Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion

#31 Postby Teban54 » Mon Oct 11, 2021 5:07 pm

InfernoFlameCat wrote:An llc is now visible, At least a developing one is. Also a big blowup of more organized convection to the west of the partial llc has likely aided the llc in developing.

Yeah, if this can sustain itself, it would at least look better than Kate, Peter and Rose did at their worst, regardless of whether 93L gets named or not.
3 likes   

User avatar
abajan
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 4175
Joined: Sun Sep 07, 2003 5:10 am
Location: Barbados

Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion

#32 Postby abajan » Mon Oct 11, 2021 6:30 pm

Teban54 wrote:
InfernoFlameCat wrote:An llc is now visible, At least a developing one is. Also a big blowup of more organized convection to the west of the partial llc has likely aided the llc in developing.

Yeah, if this can sustain itself, it would at least look better than Kate, Peter and Rose did at their worst, regardless of whether 93L gets named or not.

Image
2 likes   

User avatar
Teban54
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1903
Joined: Sat May 19, 2018 1:19 pm

Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion

#33 Postby Teban54 » Mon Oct 11, 2021 6:41 pm

abajan wrote:
Teban54 wrote:
InfernoFlameCat wrote:An llc is now visible, At least a developing one is. Also a big blowup of more organized convection to the west of the partial llc has likely aided the llc in developing.

Yeah, if this can sustain itself, it would at least look better than Kate, Peter and Rose did at their worst, regardless of whether 93L gets named or not.

https://i.imgur.com/BwuxSlV.gif

If you look carefully, you can see the LLC just to the west of the huge convective blowup.

Either the explosion in convection blows away the LLC completely (IIRC Josephine, Rene and one of the weak storms this year dissipated this way), or the LLC survives and we have something classifiable, albeit heavily sheared. We'll see.

Edit: Shortwave IR tells the story better:
Image
3 likes   

User avatar
Stormybajan
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 428
Joined: Thu May 20, 2021 3:21 pm
Location: Windward Islands

Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion

#34 Postby Stormybajan » Mon Oct 11, 2021 7:22 pm

Teban54 wrote:
abajan wrote:
Teban54 wrote:Yeah, if this can sustain itself, it would at least look better than Kate, Peter and Rose did at their worst, regardless of whether 93L gets named or not.

https://i.imgur.com/BwuxSlV.gif

If you look carefully, you can see the LLC just to the west of the huge convective blowup.

Either the explosion in convection blows away the LLC completely (IIRC Josephine, Rene and one of the weak storms this year dissipated this way), or the LLC survives and we have something classifiable, albeit heavily sheared. We'll see.

Edit: Shortwave IR tells the story better:
https://i.ibb.co/0K8w6WV/goes16-vis-swir-93-L-202110111845.gif

Any chance the LLC gets sucked up southwest into the convection or is the shear too strong or is it speeding along too quickly?
0 likes   
Sad West Indies and Manchester United fan ⚽️

colbroe
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 190
Joined: Sat Aug 07, 2004 4:57 am

Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion

#35 Postby colbroe » Mon Oct 11, 2021 7:58 pm

Looks like this Invest is consolidating closer to Barbados with a big blow up of convection.
Appears like the sheer has lessened in the last few hours.
1 likes   

Sciencerocks
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 7266
Age: 38
Joined: Thu Jul 06, 2017 1:51 am

Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion

#36 Postby Sciencerocks » Tue Oct 12, 2021 12:57 am

Image
1 likes   

User avatar
abajan
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 4175
Joined: Sun Sep 07, 2003 5:10 am
Location: Barbados

Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion

#37 Postby abajan » Tue Oct 12, 2021 5:57 am

colbroe wrote:Looks like this Invest is consolidating closer to Barbados with a big blow up of convection.
Appears like the sheer has lessened in the last few hours.

It's epic how quickly the associated convection dissipated. Last night, before heading to bed, I could've sworn we would get lots of heavy showers with thunder. And, as I discovered minutes ago, about six hours ago our met office even issued a flash flood warning and severe thunderstorm warning.
Image
5 likes   

hurricanes1234
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2903
Joined: Sat Jul 28, 2012 6:19 pm
Location: Trinidad and Tobago

Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion

#38 Postby hurricanes1234 » Tue Oct 12, 2021 6:15 am

Same here in T&T, we were supposed to get peripheral rainfall from this overnight last night into this morning and it's been bone dry. Yesterday was forecast to be fairly wet as well during the day and the only thing present was Saharan dust. Just dry air and strong shear everywhere you look. On the satellite loop, you could see all the cloud tops being blown off to the east and southeast by these relentless upper-level winds.

Looks more like November in an ENSO-neutral year than October in a La Niña year.
1 likes   
PLEASE NOTE: With the exception of information from weather agencies that I may copy and paste here, my posts will NEVER be official, since I am NOT a meteorologist. They are solely my amateur opinion, and may or may not be accurate. Therefore, please DO NOT use them as official details, particularly when making important decisions. Thank you.

User avatar
aspen
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 8029
Joined: Sat Oct 12, 2019 7:10 pm
Location: Connecticut, USA

Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion

#39 Postby aspen » Tue Oct 12, 2021 6:46 am

93L got too excited about the upcoming CCKW and tried to develop too early, it seems. Or it exploded like Josephine. Hard to tell from shortwave IR loops.
1 likes   
Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 5/15/2018 Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20 Elsa '21 Henri '21 Ida '21

I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.

User avatar
abajan
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 4175
Joined: Sun Sep 07, 2003 5:10 am
Location: Barbados

Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion

#40 Postby abajan » Tue Oct 12, 2021 7:39 am

From this loop, it seems the LLC is currently about 100 miles ENE of Barbados:

Image
0 likes   


Return to “2021”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 16 guests