EPAC: BONNIE - Models
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Re: ATL: TWO - Models
12z HWRF is showing lots more convection developing tonight. If that happens, a 60-70 kt system is possible. If PTC2/Bonnie remains anemic, then a low end TS with minimal chances of surviving into the EPac is the most likely scenario.
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Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 5/15/2018 Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20 Elsa '21 Henri '21 Ida '21
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
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Re: ATL: TWO - Models
Points to gfs for being conservative. I had a feeling the EPS was too bullish. Seems like a recurring theme with Aftican Waves ( Isaias, Elsa, PTC2)
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Re: ATL: TWO - Models
Deshaunrob17 wrote:Points to gfs for being conservative. I had a feeling the EPS was too bullish. Seems like a recurring theme with Aftican Waves ( Isaias, Elsa, PTC2)
Isaias and Elsa went too north and had trouble with the Greater Antilles (kinda for Isaias), or just took a while to consolidate over open water. PTC2 is a far different case — every model was too far north, and most were too slow. If PTC2 were a little further north, we probably would have seen TS Bonnie form on Tuesday or Wednesday.
Usually, the models are too far south. I forget if Elsa or Isaias were originally modeled to be true Caribbean Crusiers, but I do remember storms like Teddy and Sam were shown to enter the eastern Caribbean like Maria during some of their earlier model runs.
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Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 5/15/2018 Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20 Elsa '21 Henri '21 Ida '21
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
- cycloneye
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Re: ATL: TWO - Models
Yikes.
https://twitter.com/TylerJStanfield/status/1542572977925099521
https://twitter.com/TylerJStanfield/status/1542575157855797249
https://twitter.com/TylerJStanfield/status/1542572977925099521
https://twitter.com/TylerJStanfield/status/1542575157855797249
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Re: ATL: BONNIE - Models
The 18z HWRF and HMON blow Bonnie up into a at 4 on the 4th of July. In both runs, it goes over a patch of 30-31C SSTs off the coast of Mexico, triggering RI after its internal structure had recovered. Bonnie reaches 962mb/115kt on the HWRF and 943mb/125 kt on the HMON.
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Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 5/15/2018 Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20 Elsa '21 Henri '21 Ida '21
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
- skyline385
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EPAC: BONNIE - Models
Bonnie could be a pretty little annular cane like Felicia if 06Z HWRF verifies
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- skyline385
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Re: EPAC: BONNIE - Models
A bearish HAFS 0Z has it taking a northerly track, am curious to see how this ends up.
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- skyline385
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Re: EPAC: BONNIE - Models
Looks like the 0Z run was an anomaly, 06Z seems to be doing much better more in line with HWRF and the rest.
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- cycloneye
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Re: EPAC: BONNIE - Models
NHC will nudge up the peak intensity to cat 2 on next advisory.
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Re: EPAC: BONNIE - Models
cycloneye wrote:NHC will nudge up the peak intensity to cat 2 on next advisory.
https://i.imgur.com/bFJiWm9.png
No that’s just the last advisory forecast plus takes into account the higher initial intensity IIRC.
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- cycloneye
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EPAC: BONNIE - Tropical Storm - Discussion
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Re: EPAC: BONNIE - Models
The 12z hurricane models have vastly different solutions on Bonnie’s short-term structural evolution. HWRF has this EWRC completing successfully, with a nice big eye clearing tomorrow. HMON erodes the inner core tonight, and it only briefly recovers on Thursday.
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Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 5/15/2018 Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20 Elsa '21 Henri '21 Ida '21
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
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