ATL: NICOLE - Models

[LarryWx]

12Z GEFS: 90% of 31 members landfall in FL (all Cape Canaveral southward) centered near West Palm Beach. They landfall between 7AM Wednesday and 7PM Thursday with most at some point Wednesday night and just about all as a cat 1 or 2 hurricane.

[cycloneye]

HWRF is running. Let's see what it has.

[MetroMike]

The 12z CMC has a H landfall in Jacksonville vicinity. Rare hit area but this year anythings on the table.

[cycloneye]

HMON is also running.

[blp]

12z Ukmet. I think Ukmet will be useful once it's established.

[Jr0d]

If this goes as far north as the GFS is showing before diving SW, I imagine there will be naysayers about a a Florida landfall. The CMC does not take it as far north, and is not showing the SW dive. The EURO ensembles are showing a little SW movement...

Very interesting that the Yankee hurricane of 1935 also took a big dive south and was going WSW at landfall. Too bad we didnt have satellite data back then...

[Blown Away]

12z Ukmet. I think Ukmet will be useful once it's established.

https://i.ibb.co/KmHJh4t/floop-ukmet-2022110612-sfcwind-mslp-swatl.gif

Interesting the 12z Ukmet tops out @27N before moving W?? Sniffing out a change??

[NDG]

It looks like the 12z HWRF will be stronger with 98L at FL landfall than the 12z GFS.

[LarryWx]

12z Ukmet. I think Ukmet will be useful once it's established.

https://i.ibb.co/KmHJh4t/floop-ukmet-2022110612-sfcwind-mslp-swatl.gif

Interesting the 12z Ukmet tops out @27N before moving W?? Sniffing out a change??

The 0Z UKMET topped out at 26.5N before turning WSW fwiw. So, the 12Z is slightly further north then but then comes back south to a similar position. Overall it was pretty consistent for that far out.

[Blown Away]

https://i.ibb.co/KmHJh4t/floop-ukmet-2022110612-sfcwind-mslp-swatl.gif

Interesting the 12z Ukmet tops out @27N before moving W?? Sniffing out a change??

The 0Z UKMET topped out at 26.5N before turning WSW fwiw. So, the 12Z is slightly further north then but then comes back south to a similar position.

Compared to GFS/EURO the top is a few degrees S?

[Hypercane_Kyle]

HWRF is low MSLP, but also lower on the winds so far. Large, hybrid looking system.

[SouthFLTropics]

HMON goes to Cat 1 in 72 hours near Grand Bahama.


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[NDG]

HWRF is low MSLP, but also lower on the winds so far. Large, hybrid looking system.

Models don't show getting full tropical characteristics until it reaches the northern Bahamas area, specially over the gulf stream.

[GCANE]

If I was a pro-met I would err on the side of caution.
Helluva eyewall making landfall


 https://twitter.com/T2mike/status/1589295401638965248

[LarryWx]

https://i.ibb.co/KmHJh4t/floop-ukmet-2022110612-sfcwind-mslp-swatl.gif

Interesting the 12z Ukmet tops out @27N before moving W?? Sniffing out a change??

The 0Z UKMET topped out at 26.5N before turning WSW fwiw. So, the 12Z is slightly further north then but then comes back south to a similar position.

Compared to GFS/EURO the top is a few degrees S?

The 12Z UKMET's 27N before turning WSW tops out ~2 degrees S of the 12Z GFS' ~29N and ~0.5 degrees S of the 6Z Euro's ~27.5 N

[NDG]

12z HMON strong Cat 1, landfall near Vero Beach or just north of it.

[DESTRUCTION5]

HWRF landfall Stuart FL as formidable cane.

[NDG]

I stand corrected about the 12z HWRF possibly making landfall stronger than the GFS.

[shah83]

Winds seems low for the pressure gradient implied, but I don't know anything...

[LarryWx]

HWRF landfall Stuart FL as formidable cane.

This is near the 12z UKMET but 12 hours earlier (Wednesday evening 7 PM).