ATL: NICOLE - Models

[Beachside]

4:00 NHC update ticks the track south a bit. Now over Ft Pierce.

[gatorcane]

I wonder if we see the models slowly shift more south now since if the storm gets more intense than forecasted, it would likely get pushed more WSW since it would feel the upper high

[Nuno]

The NHC mentioned something about odd about the models in the 10am advisory.

Since the storm is likely near
the apex of its most northern point, it is worth noting the the
model trackers are noticeable north of the raw model fields. In
fact, the GFS tracker is about 45-50 n mi north of its raw fields.
The NHC track is very close to the previous forecast, which is
along the southern side of dynamical model trackers and is closest
to the GFS ensemble mean. Until the guidance stabilizes, it is
prudent not to make any significant changes.

I missed this. So they are basically saying the spaghetti plots are not lining up with model output. How the ##%@ does that even happen.

No idea, but watching the model runs come in and they are way south of the plots for the 18z. Something isn't adding up

Time to go old school and bust out the map, rulers, and pencils

[Beachside]

I wonder if we see the models slowly shift more south now since if the storm gets more intense than forecasted, it would likely get pushed more WSW since it would feel the upper high

But don't stronger storms want to go towards the pole?

[Nuno]

So is the NHC as alluded to in the last discussion...GFS has been good for this system so it has to be taken seriously.

How does, if any, would a stronger deeper hurricane moving WSW respond to a very strong HP?? Past examples they go farther S? Does this apply here?

Look at Katrina, was heading right at me, I was ready to go in the eye and boom, takes the big dive and rolls through the everglades.

Let me leave this right here for everyone else who doesn't remember Katrina...

I'm used to too many of these ATL storms under strong high pressures being pushed further south than expected (Andrew, Ike, Irma, Katrina etc). Lots of conflicting models, but I would bet on this being closer to WPB or even Broward than the models are currently showing, with its current heading. Still gonna be nasty for everyone up the east coast no matter what.

[SconnieCane]

I wonder if we see the models slowly shift more south now since if the storm gets more intense than forecasted, it would likely get pushed more WSW since it would feel the upper high

But don't stronger storms want to go towards the pole?

Stronger storms feel the deep layer synoptic steering influences more acutely, whether poleward or not.

*I should clarify "stronger" in the sense of being a vertically stacked TC with an organized inner core vs. one that's not. I don't think actual category matters a whole lot in this regard.

[Blown Away]

I wonder if we see the models slowly shift more south now since if the storm gets more intense than forecasted, it would likely get pushed more WSW since it would feel the upper high

I say yes based on the models carrying over into GOM...Tells me the HP is being under estimated.

[Canelaw99]

How does, if any, would a stronger deeper hurricane moving WSW respond to a very strong HP?? Past examples they go farther S? Does this apply here?

Look at Katrina, was heading right at me, I was ready to go in the eye and boom, takes the big dive and rolls through the everglades.

Let me leave this right here for everyone else who doesn't remember Katrina...

https://imgur.com/zwiNLn7

I'm used to too many of these ATL storms under strong high pressures being pushed further south than expected (Andrew, Ike, Irma, Katrina etc). Lots of conflicting models, but I would bet on this being closer to WPB or even Broward than the models are currently showing, with its current heading. Still gonna be nasty for everyone up the east coast no matter what.

I had forgotten that forecast cone so close to landfall

[Blown Away]

18z GFS... Landfall @West Palm Beach

[gatorcane]

Looks like yet another south shift with the GFS

[DESTRUCTION5]

18z GFS unloads on Palm Beach in 36 hrs.

I smell another south shift at 10pm.

[Kat5]

Looks like yet another south shift with the GFS

Looks about the same from last run.

[AutoPenalti]

Looks about the same, maybe 4 miles south from last run if you want to dive into the specifics...

[DestinHurricane]

That GFS run looks like around Boynton or lake worth if we're being specific. North of Boca, but south of downtown WPB.

[Coolcruiseman]

18z GFS unloads on Palm Beach in 36 hrs.

I smell another south shift at 10pm.

I suspect a number of shifts possible yet in either direction as the models get more data from recon. Will the 00z runs have the data from the current recon?

[jlauderdal]

Look at Katrina, was heading right at me, I was ready to go in the eye and boom, takes the big dive and rolls through the everglades.

Let me leave this right here for everyone else who doesn't remember Katrina...

https://imgur.com/zwiNLn7

I'm used to too many of these ATL storms under strong high pressures being pushed further south than expected (Andrew, Ike, Irma, Katrina etc). Lots of conflicting models, but I would bet on this being closer to WPB or even Broward than the models are currently showing, with its current heading. Still gonna be nasty for everyone up the east coast no matter what.

I had forgotten that forecast cone so close to landfall

Forecasting has improved since Katrina but this is very similar to Ian with the angle of approach because slight changes cause huge track changes downstream due to the shape of florida...its all about the angles and just a few miles now makes a huge difference down the road and this isn't the only turn to be concerned with, there is another in a few days to the west. Deviation to the north or south of this track is a big deal in regards to who actually gets the core.

[chaser1]

I wonder if we see the models slowly shift more south now since if the storm gets more intense than forecasted, it would likely get pushed more WSW since it would feel the upper high

But don't stronger storms want to go towards the pole?

o

Coriolis Effect would cause northern hemi tropical systems to turn to the "right", or poleward..... but that is if/when all other steering factors are at a net zero. As Gatorcane alluded, the deeper (and convectively intense around it's inner core) the storm, the more apt for steering to be impacted by mid level steering heights. Of course it's a good deal more complex then that because the higher and lower atmospheric levels contribute to a lessor degree or result in differing levels of wind shear impairing it's vertical stability and continuity. Short answser LOL is that a more shallow system might move with the surface flow while a better organized tropical system may be steered differently.

[MetroMike]

The 18Z GFS is a bit more South and West across Fl and is now over Tampa Thursday, shall see how that works out or doesn't.

[SFLcane]

18z GFS unloads on Palm Beach in 36 hrs.

I smell another south shift at 10pm.

Yup!

[AutoPenalti]

Boca and miles south would get blasted by heavy rain.