EPAC: JULIA - Remnants - Discussion

[cheezyWXguy]

Recon is finding multiple LLCs inside Julia, hope that will limit it being stronger.

Yeah this is about the most bizarre surface circulation I can recall for a system that looks this good on satellite. Just goes to show satellite estimates aren’t everything

[Sciencerocks]

[Teban54]

Messy, to say the least.

[cycloneye]

Agree.

 https://twitter.com/DerekOrtt/status/1578566994743656449

[Iceresistance]

Agree.

 https://twitter.com/DerekOrtt/status/1578566994743656449

I'm actually glad that this is playing out right now, hoping to not get a 3rd or 4th retirement this year, this year has been unexpectedly brutal.

[Iceresistance]

Julia may have done a center reformation, a jump by nearly .7 degrees west on the VDM tracks.


https://s7.gifyu.com/images/AF306-inside-Julia.png

[Craters]

For something that discombobulated in terms of its wind field, it sure can be proud of that convection center. That thing's been going like the Energizer Bunny (but bigger, of course) since late this afternoon -- wow!

[Teban54]

Julia may have done a center reformation, a jump by nearly .7 degrees west on the VDM tracks.

https://s7.gifyu.com/images/AF306-inside-Julia.png
https://s7.gifyu.com/images/AF306-inside-Julia.png

The 4th VDM is even further west:

However, it looks like the LLC is finally at the center of the extremely cold CDO, and it looks to me that winds near the LLC as reported by recon are getting better defined.

[cheezyWXguy]

Julia may have done a center reformation, a jump by nearly .7 degrees west on the VDM tracks.

https://s7.gifyu.com/images/AF306-inside-Julia.png
https://s7.gifyu.com/images/AF306-inside-Julia.png

The 4th VDM is even further west:
https://i.postimg.cc/hvSP7gfb/image.png
However, it looks like the LLC is finally at the center of the extremely cold CDO, and it looks to me that winds near the LLC as reported by recon are getting better defined.

As screwed up as this thing’s surface circulation is, it’s convection continues to get better organized. With convection that deep, the pressure’s gotta drop sooner or later

[Teban54]

Is there a chance we're actually seeing a CCC at the moment?

[Teban54]

Latest NE pass has 53 kt FL, 46 kt SFMR.

[galaxy401]

Julia looks like it's about to RI once it has an organized center which it might have now.

[REDHurricane]

Eye forming now/very soon?

[galaxy401]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Julia Intermediate Advisory Number 7A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132022
200 AM EDT Sat Oct 08 2022

...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND JULIA IS STRENGTHENING...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE BEFORE REACHING THE COAST OF
NICARAGUA ON SUNDAY...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.7N 77.2W
ABOUT 285 MI...460 KM E OF ISLA DE PROVIDENCIA COLOMBIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES

Won't be surprised if this becomes a hurricane within six hours.

[Teban54]

[cheezyWXguy]

Eye forming now/very soon?

https://media.giphy.com/media/S3yqx0J1T5IILpffoi/giphy.gif

Not quite, the surface still has some improvement to be made judging by recon, but it’s doing better. Wouldn’t be too surprising to see one start popping out before noon at this rate though

[kevin]

[weeniepatrol]

[aspen]

The center was still a bit of a mess when recon left a few hours ago, but a new plane should be there in another 1-2 hours and might find something better organized. I can’t imagine Julia won’t finally sort itself out and RI with a convective structure like this.

[REDHurricane]

Watching things blow up right now, I would not be surprised at all if Julia ends up becoming a major before landfall -- it is running out of time with just around 24 more hours over water, but as we know that's plenty of time to RI into something nasty in the SW Caribbean in October. That said, it seems like rainfall will be the biggest concern with Julia either way, so hopefully any RI that takes place won't end up having that huge of an effect on the overall impact for the people of Nicaragua/Honduras/rest of Central America.

Also, what's up with both HWRF and HMON showing a sub-980 MSLP with Cat 1 winds at landfall, that would be interesting...