ATL: MARTIN - Advisories

[cycloneye]

Tropical Storm Martin Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162022
1100 AM AST Tue Nov 01 2022

The occluded low over the central North Atlantic has developed deep
convection over its center, while the frontal boundaries have
become displaced a long distance to its east and north. At
the same time, FSU Cyclone Phase Space analyses suggest that the
system has developed a non-frontal warm core. Given these changes,
the system has evolved into a tropical cyclone. The ASCAT
scatterometer just observed the system and indicated that the
intensity is currently at 45 kt with a large area of
35 kt-plus winds. Thus the system is now a tropical storm and given
the name Martin.

The system is moving toward the east-northeast around 8 kt, as it
is embedded in the mid-latitude westerlies in a split in the jet
stream with faster westerlies both poleward and equatorward of the
system. Martin should turn toward the northeast at an increasingly
rapid forward speed during the next two days. The official track
forecast is based upon the consensus (TVCN and HCCA) of the tightly
clustered global and hurricane dynamical models. In about three
days, Martin should decelerate as it merges with a developing
extratropical low to its north.

For the intensity, even though the SSTs are a lukewarm 25C, the
upper-level temperatures are quite cold given that Martin is
embedded within a deep and vertically stacked cyclone. This
vertical temperature structure should enable deep convection
to continue, even while the mid-level moisture is only marginally
ample. The vertical shear is 20-25 kt out of the southwest, but
the effects of this moderate shear are tempered by Martin moving in
the same direction as the shear vector. Bottom line is that
despite the month being November, Martin is expected to develop into
a hurricane at high latitudes. The official intensity prediction
steadily strengthens the system through 48 hr, which matches a
consensus of the statistical, global, and hurricane dynamical
models. Around 48 hr, Martin should transition into a powerful
extratropical low as a cold front reaches near the center of the
system. In about three days, post-tropical Martin should be
merging with an developing extratropical system to its north but
still be containing hurricane-force winds.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/1500Z 35.3N 55.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 02/0000Z 35.4N 53.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 02/1200Z 36.1N 50.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 03/0000Z 38.7N 46.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 03/1200Z 43.8N 40.0W 75 KT 85 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 04/0000Z 51.5N 34.6W 75 KT 85 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 04/1200Z 56.0N 34.9W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 05/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Landsea

[cycloneye]

Tropical Storm Martin Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162022
500 PM AST Tue Nov 01 2022

Martin has a tight low-level center with a small central dense
overcast and some outer banding. However, the deep convection
remains somewhat fragmentary, and the system may still have some
hybrid characteristics remaining. The subjective Dvorak estimates
from SAB and TAFB came in at a 3.0, or around 45 kt. Fortunately,
there's also some in-situ data from drifting buoy 44018, which just
reported a 993 mb surface pressure value close to the system's
center. Based upon this, the central pressure is assessed at 991
mb and intensity is boosted slightly to 50 kt.

The tropical storm is moving a bit faster - 11 kt - toward the
east, as it is embedded in the mid-latitude westerlies in a split
in the jet stream with faster westerlies both poleward and
equatorward of the system. Martin should turn toward the northeast
at an increasingly rapid forward speed during the next two days.
The official track forecast is based upon the consensus (TVCN and
HCCA) of the tightly clustered global and hurricane dynamical
models, and slightly to the right - eastward - of the previous
advisory at 60-72 hr. From days three to five, Martin should
decelerate as it interacts with a developing extratropical low to
its north.

For the intensity, the SSTs are a lukewarm 25-26C, which is a couple
of degrees warmer than usual for this latitude. This anomalous
surface warmth along with quite cold upper-level temperatures should
provide an unstable atmosphere. The mid-level moisture that Martin
is currently embedded within is quite dry, but is expected to
moisten up by tomorrow. The vertical shear is 20-25 kt out of the
southwest, but the effects of this moderate shear are tempered by
Martin moving in roughly the same direction as the shear vector.
Within these generally conducive conditions, the system is expected
to steadily intensify. The official intensity forecast is similar
to that previously issued, and is based on a consensus of the
statistical, global, and hurricane dynamical models. Around 48 hr,
Martin should transition into an extratropical low as a cold front
reaches near the center of the system. A significant change to the
official forecast has Martin continuing now for five days as the
new global models suggest that Martin will remain the dominant
vortex and not be absorbed. It is expected that Martin will be a
large and powerful extratropical system threatening the North
Atlantic shipping lanes through days four and five.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/2100Z 35.4N 54.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 02/0600Z 35.5N 52.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 02/1800Z 37.3N 48.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 03/0600Z 41.0N 43.3W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 03/1800Z 47.9N 36.4W 80 KT 90 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 04/0600Z 55.5N 31.2W 75 KT 85 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 04/1800Z 59.0N 32.5W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 05/1800Z 60.0N 34.0W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 06/1800Z 58.0N 35.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Landsea

[cycloneye]

Tropical Storm Martin Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162022
1100 PM AST Tue Nov 01 2022

Deep convection is gradually increasing near the center of Martin
and banding features are becoming better established on the system's
north side. Even though the core of Martin looks tropical in nature,
the storm still has some subtropical characteristics with frontal
features nearby. The latest Dvorak estimates were unchanged from
earlier, so the initial wind speed remains 50 kt for this advisory.

Martin is moving just south of due east, with the latest initial
motion estimated to be 100/9 kt. The storm should begin to turn
northeastward on Wednesday as a mid- to upper-level trough currently
off the northeast U.S. approaches the system. A stronger mid- to
upper-level trough near Atlantic Canada should help accelerate
Martin northeastward by Wednesday night and Thursday before this
trough interacts and merges with the storm Thursday night and
Friday. After the two systems merge, Martin will likely slow down
and move eastward over the northeastern Atlantic. Little change was
made to the previous track forecast during the first 72 hours, but
notable eastward adjustments were made at days 4 and 5 to be in
better agreement with the latest model guidance.

Although Martin is over relatively cool 25 degree C waters and
headed over even cooler SSTs during the next couple of days,
unstable conditions and upper-level diffluence along with
non-tropical forcing should cause significant strengthening during
the next day or two. Martin is forecast to become a powerful
extratropical low in about 36 hours when it merges with the strong
trough off Atlantic Canada. After that time, the models show a slow
weakening trend. The NHC intensity forecast is in line with the
majority of the guidance and is fairly similar to the previous
forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/0300Z 35.1N 53.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 02/1200Z 35.9N 51.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 03/0000Z 38.8N 46.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 03/1200Z 44.0N 40.3W 80 KT 90 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 04/0000Z 51.4N 35.2W 75 KT 85 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 04/1200Z 57.4N 33.2W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 05/0000Z 57.3N 34.9W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 06/0000Z 54.7N 27.6W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 07/0000Z 55.0N 19.9W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Martin Advisory Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162022
500 AM AST Wed Nov 02 2022

...MARTIN EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...35.3N 52.1W
ABOUT 755 MI...1220 KM ENE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 75 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.21 INCHES




Tropical Storm Martin Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162022
500 AM AST Wed Nov 02 2022

Deep convection has continued to increase in coverage and intensity
with Martin this morning, with occasional hints of a eye trying to
develop within the cyclonically rotating bands of cloud tops colder
than -60C. This improved core structure can also be seen on a recent
0732 UTC GMI microwave pass. Earlier scatterometer imagery mostly
missed the center, though the edge values of ASCAT-C in the
southwest quadrant did show a peak wind retrieval of 44 kt. While
earlier subjective satellite intensity estimates remained largely
unchanged, given the improvement in satellite imagery seen this
morning compared to last night, the initial intensity is being
nudged upward to 55 kt for this advisory.

Martin is starting to make the turn more northward as it accelerates
at 075/13 kt. The tropical cyclone should continue to turn more
northeastward and accelerate over the next 12 to 24 hours as it
becomes captured by pronounced deep-layer trough in Atlantic Canada
that is quickly amplifying towards the system. This same trough will
ultimately fully capture Martin, leading to its extratropical
transition. The merger of both systems is also forecast to lead to a
rapid expansion of both the 34- and 50-kt radii and these have been
increased significantly as Martin becomes extratropical. After this
trough-TC merger, the resulting extratropical cyclone will slow down
and then pivot eastward over the remainder of the forecast period.
The track guidance is tightly clustered early on, but is also
slightly east of the prior forecast track, so the latest track
forecast was shifted in that direction. Another eastward adjustment
was also made in days 4 and 5, in order to match closer with track
guidance this cycle.

Martin is having no issues maintaining moderate to deep convection
near its center, thanks in large part to very cold (-57 to -59
degree C) 200 mb temperatures over the cyclone maintaining
instability. Even though shear is forecast to increase over the next
24 hours, this negative factor will likely be offset by a pronounced
jet streak developing north of Martin, with the cyclone being
optimally placed for in its right entrance region, favoring
large-scale ascent. Thus, Martin is expected to intensify further
and is forecast to become a hurricane later today. The acceleration
in the cyclone's forward motion may also help to increase its
maximum sustained winds, and the latest NHC intensity forecast still
shows Martin peaking in intensity as it becomes a large and powerful
extratropical cyclone. This intensity forecast remains in good
agreement with the bulk of the intensity guidance.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/0900Z 35.3N 52.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 02/1800Z 36.6N 49.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 03/0600Z 40.6N 43.7W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 03/1800Z 47.4N 37.4W 80 KT 90 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 04/0600Z 54.3N 34.0W 75 KT 85 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 04/1800Z 57.0N 35.3W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 05/0600Z 55.5N 34.4W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 06/0600Z 54.4N 22.4W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 07/0600Z 57.7N 13.1W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Papin

[cycloneye]

Hurricane Martin Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162022
1100 AM AST Wed Nov 02 2022

Satellite images indicate that Martin now has a better-defined eye,
with a tight banding pattern wrapping over one degree around the
center. Additionally, early-morning microwave data show that
the cyclone has a closed low-level ring on the 37 GHz channel and
most of an eyewall on the 91 GHz. Dvorak intensity estimates have
increased since the last cycle, and the initial wind speed is set to
65 kt, near the SAB estimate.

The hurricane has about a day left within an unstable atmosphere
and moderate shear to further intensify in the conventional
tropical cyclone manner. However, a more interesting event could
happen in the early-morning hours tomorrow as extratropical
transition begins. Most of the high-resolution hurricane models and
even some of the global models are showing a sting-jet-like feature
occurring on the southern side of Martin in about 24 hours due to
a favorable trough interaction. Guidance is quite a bit higher
than the last cycle and, with good agreement in the models, the
official intensity forecast is raised for the first 24 h, then
blended back toward the global model consensus. Martin should be a
very large and strong extratropical cyclone for several days over
the far North Atlantic.

Martin is making a leftward turn and accelerating, now estimated
at 060/23 kt. The tropical cyclone should continue to turn more
northeastward and accelerate over the next day hours as it becomes
drawn into a strong deep-layer trough from Atlantic Canada. This
same trough will ultimately fully capture Martin, leading to its
extratropical transition by tomorrow afternoon. The merger of both
systems will lead to a rapid expansion of both the 34- and 50-kt
radii, and this continues to be indicated in the wind-radii
forecast. After this trough-TC merger, the resulting extratropical
cyclone will slow down and then move generally eastward over the
remainder of the forecast period, with perhaps a northward bend
early next week. There is increasing uncertainty on the final
disposition of the low, perhaps near the British Isles or
turning northward towards Iceland. The new forecast is moved
north of the previous one at long range.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/1500Z 35.5N 50.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 03/0000Z 37.6N 46.4W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 03/1200Z 43.4N 39.7W 90 KT 105 MPH
36H 04/0000Z 51.9N 35.5W 80 KT 90 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 04/1200Z 55.0N 36.0W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 05/0000Z 56.4N 33.2W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 05/1200Z 56.0N 28.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 06/1200Z 56.5N 17.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 07/1200Z 60.5N 15.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Blake

[cycloneye]

Hurricane Martin Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162022
500 PM AST Wed Nov 02 2022

Martin is an impressive high-latitude hurricane for November.
Satellite imagery shows that the eye continues to become better
defined with warmer temperatures in the center, along with a mostly
solid eyewall. Dvorak estimates from both TAFB and SAB have
increased to T4.5 or 77 kt, and the initial wind speed is set to 75
kt based on that data.

The hurricane should begin extratropical transition overnight, with
almost all of the guidance indicating strengthening. The high-
resolution hurricane models and most of the global models are still
showing a sting-jet-like feature, with winds of 90 kt or more
expected tomorrow morning in the southern semicircle.
Additionally, at about the same time, Martin should grow
substantially due to a favorable mid-latitude trough
interaction. Gradual weakening should start by tomorrow afternoon
as the baroclinic forcing decreases, but Martin should be a
very large and strong extratropical cyclone for several days over
the far North Atlantic. Little change was made to the previous
forecast, and Martin should become an extratropical low by 18
UTC on Thursday.

Martin has turned northeastward and continues to pick up
speed, now 27 kt. The hurricane should move faster to the
north-northeast and north as it becomes drawn into the strong
deep-layer trough to its northwest during the next day or two. This
same trough will ultimately fully capture Martin, causing the now
merged extratropical cyclone to slow down and eventually move
eastward in the mid-latitude westerlies toward the British Isles.
The new forecast was shifted eastward at long range, with only
small modifications otherwise.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/2100Z 37.1N 47.6W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 03/0600Z 40.4N 43.2W 90 KT 105 MPH
24H 03/1800Z 48.0N 36.5W 85 KT 100 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 04/0600Z 54.6N 36.5W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 04/1800Z 56.3N 35.5W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 05/0600Z 56.0N 32.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 05/1800Z 55.0N 24.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 06/1800Z 57.0N 11.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 07/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake

[cycloneye]

Hurricane Martin Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162022
300 AM GMT Thu Nov 03 2022

Martin remains in impressive high-latitude late-season hurricane.
Recent infrared satellite imagery shows deep convection wrapping
around a ragged eye. The hurricane's cloud shield has begun
expanding over the northern and northwestern portions of the storm
suggesting that the system's extratropical transition is beginning.
Subjective Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB range from
65 to 77 kt, and the initial wind speed will remain on the higher
end of those estimates at 75 kt.

The global model guidance indicates that Martin will strengthen
tonight and early Thursday as it transforms into an extratropical
cyclone. That transition is expected to be complete by about
1800 UTC on Thursday. The guidance continues to depict a very
strong sting-jet-like feature around the southern and southwestern
portions of the storm, and the NHC forecast therefore calls for
some strengthening during the next 12 hours or so. Martin's wind
field is also forecast to rapidly expand in size during the next
day or so, and this is reflected in the wind radii forecast. The
baroclinic forcing should begin to decrease by late tomorrow, with
gradual weakening occurring after that time, however Martin is
forecast to remain a very large and powerful cyclone over the North
Atlantic for the next several days.

Martin continues to accelerate, and it is now moving northeastward
at about 34 kt. A faster north-northeastward motion is expected
overnight, followed by northward turn on Thursday as Martin moves
around the eastern side of a strong deep-layer trough. The trough
is forecast to capture Martin by 36 hours, and the merged system is
expected to slow down considerably, and then turn eastward in the
mid-latitude flow. The updated track forecast is slightly faster
during the first 24 hours, but little change was required
thereafter. The forecast is a blend of mostly the GFS and ECMWF
global model guidance.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/0300Z 39.4N 44.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 03/1200Z 43.8N 40.3W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 04/0000Z 51.9N 36.2W 80 KT 90 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 04/1200Z 56.0N 36.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 05/0000Z 56.0N 35.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 05/1200Z 55.0N 29.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 06/0000Z 55.0N 21.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 07/0000Z 58.0N 9.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 08/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown

[cycloneye]

Hurricane Martin Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162022
900 AM GMT Thu Nov 03 2022

Martin has maintained an impressive presentation overnight, with
an eye feature appearing on and off in satellite imagery. However,
recent images suggests a baroclinic zone is already starting to
run under Martin's cirrus canopy from the northwest. This front has
yet to infiltrate the core, per recent microwave imagery, and thus
Martin currently remains a tropical cyclone. The latest Dvorak
estimates remain unchanged, so Martin's intensity is held at 75 kt.

Acceleration continues with Martin, but the latest heading is
just a bit more poleward than before at a very brisk 030/40-kt. No
drastic changes were made from the prior cycle, with Martin
accelerating further and turning north over the next 6-12 hours as
it becomes captured by an intense high-latitude trough from
Atlantic Canada. After the phasing between Martin and this potent
deep-layer trough completes, the combined system is forecast to
slow down substantially as it occludes, followed by a faster
eastward or east-southeastward motion as the large extratropical
cyclone gradually weakens. The latest track forecast is quite
similar to the prior forecast, continuing to favor a blend of the
GFS and ECMWF global model guidance.

Any additional intensification of Martin's maximum sustained winds
will likely be of the non-tropical variety, as interaction with the
trough will likely wrap some cool descending air along the
southwestern side of Martin, potentially resulting a string-jet-like
development that causes some strengthening. For this reason, a peak
intensity of 80-kt is still shown in 12 hours as Martin becomes
post-Tropical. With that said, the most important evolution with the
cyclone over the next couple of days will be the dramatic expansion
of its 34- and 50-kt wind field as the system becomes an
exceptionally large and dangerous warm-seclusion-type extratropical
low. In fact, the forecast tropical-storm-force wind radii and
high-seas of the resulting extratropical cyclone are so large in 36
hours that it takes up a large chunk of the entire north Atlantic
poleward of 50 degrees. After this time period, the extratropical
cyclone should completely occlude and gradually start to decay as it
loses its baroclinicity. However, Martin should remain a large and
powerful extratropical cyclone into the weekend.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/0900Z 41.9N 41.4W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 03/1800Z 47.9N 37.7W 80 KT 90 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
24H 04/0600Z 54.7N 36.7W 75 KT 85 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 04/1800Z 56.2N 36.0W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 05/0600Z 55.9N 33.3W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 05/1800Z 54.7N 26.2W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 06/0600Z 54.5N 17.6W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 07/0600Z 59.1N 9.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 08/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Papin

[cycloneye]

Hurricane Martin Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162022
300 PM GMT Thu Nov 03 2022

Martin is nearing the completion of its extratropical transition,
which will likely conclude in the next few hours. Although the
cyclone has maintained some inner-core convection, satellite
imagery indicates that its center is beginning to get stretched out
as it becomes a frontal cyclone. There is also no longer any
indication of an eye-like feature in recent microwave or infrared
imagery. Martin's hybrid structure adds uncertainty to the
intensity estimate, since techniques like Dvorak weren't
designed for cyclones that are becoming frontal. Therefore, even
though most of the satellite-based intensity estimates have
decreased over the past 6 hours, the estimated maximum winds are
held at 75 kt since baroclinic processes are believed to be
supporting the maintenance of intensity of the cyclone at this time.

Martin is moving at a remarkably fast forward speed, with an
initial motion of 035/42 kt. Once it is post-tropical, Martin is
forecast to take a northward turn and begin slowing down as it
interacts with another non-tropical system to its northwest. Martin
is expected to become a very large and powerful extratropical
cyclone during this time, with most global models forecasting a
minimum pressure between the high 920s and mid 930s (mb). After a
day of relatively slow movement, an occluded and slowly weakening
post-tropical Martin should begin to move eastward on Saturday. By
Sunday or Sunday night, the cyclone is forecast to have weakened
enough to open into a trough embedded within a broad low over the
far north Atlantic. The track and intensity forecasts are heavily
based on a blend of the GFS and ECMWF global models, but it's worth
noting that other models like the HWRF and UKMET support the same
general evolution of Martin through the weekend.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/1500Z 45.6N 37.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 04/0000Z 51.4N 34.9W 75 KT 85 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
24H 04/1200Z 56.0N 36.0W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 05/0000Z 56.0N 34.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 05/1200Z 54.5N 28.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 06/0000Z 54.0N 20.9W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 06/1200Z 55.0N 14.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 07/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Martin Advisory Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162022
900 PM GMT Thu Nov 03 2022

...POST-TROPICAL MARTIN CAUSING STRONG WINDS AND HAZARDOUS SEAS
ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE CENTRAL NORTH ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 900 PM GMT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...50.5N 34.5W
ABOUT 940 MI...1510 KM NNW OF THE AZORES
ABOUT 885 MI...1425 KM ENE OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 58 MPH...93 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...950 MB...28.06 INCHES


Post-Tropical Cyclone Martin Discussion Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162022
900 PM GMT Thu Nov 03 2022

ASCAT-C data that was not available until after the issuance of the
last advisory, but was valid at 1317 UTC, showed that Martin likely
became frontal earlier today and the system no longer has a
well-defined circulation. In addition, both TAFB and SAB evaluated
the system as extratropical at 1800 UTC. Therefore, Martin is now
classified as post-tropical and this will be the last NHC advisory.

While Martin does not currently appear to have a well-defined
center, the powerful post-tropical cyclone is expected to redevelop
a well-defined center as it occludes over the next 12 to 24 h.
Martin is moving at a remarkable clip of 50 kt, but should begin to
slow down soon and turn north-northwestward during the next few
hours. After that, the cyclone is forecast to move relatively slowly
on Friday before picking up speed toward the east-southeast or east
through the early weekend. Martin's maximum winds are still forecast
to slowly decrease over the next few days, however the combination
of Martin and other non-tropical low pressure systems are still
expected to produce hazardous wind and seas over a very wide area of
the North Atlantic for the next couple of days.

Additional information on marine hazards can be found in High Seas
Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, the UK Met
Office, and Meteo France. Links to each product are provided below.

* National Weather Service: AWIPS Header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header
FZNT01 KWPC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php
* UK Met Office: WMO header FQNT21 EGRR and online at
www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/specialist ... d-sea/high
-seas-forecast/
* Meteo France: WMO header FQNT50 LFPW and online at
www.meteofrance.com/previsions-meteo-ma ... randlarge/
metarea2.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/2100Z 50.5N 34.5W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
12H 04/0600Z 55.0N 35.0W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
24H 04/1800Z 56.5N 35.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 05/0600Z 56.5N 31.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 05/1800Z 55.5N 25.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 06/0600Z 55.0N 17.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 06/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky